Latest
Overall assessment for polling through October 25, 2024
Harris is likely to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and perhaps Nevada. This would result in a 270-238 win, assuming no changes from the 2020 election in other states and electoral districts. This is unchanged from a ten days ago, except in North Carolina where there was a marked improvement but not enough to move her out of a weak position.
The number of "likely voter" polls increased substantially in the second half of September. As a result, the model was revised to excluded "registered voter" surveys and to include all likely voter polls from August to late September. As before, the beginning assumptions include a close contest in the range of Harris taking between 48% and 52% of vote in each swing state. This is a "strong" prior and pronounced polling results will be required to move the credible interval outside that range. The model is based on the Bayesian analysis described in Methodology.
Not enough new polling is anticipated before the election, and even if there is, the model credible intervals are unlikely to be much moved unless there is a sudden, large swing.