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Superseding event
Vice President Harris replaced President Biden as the nominee of the Democratic Party. The model has been revised to take into account the polls conducted in July prior to July 21, 2024 (when Biden withdrew) as the prior distribution, after introducing some variability to partially account for the added uncertainty introduced by the substitution
For polls conducted through the end of the month, the model will be updated and every fortnight thereafter. Consideration will also be given to reassessing swing states, depending on initial results. It is expected that most Blue and Red states will remain as such, but some swing states will move.
Allocation of electoral college votes corrected
Harris starts with the 226 (not 225) votes won by Biden in 2020, using the revised 2024 electoral college vote allocations.
Overall assessment for polling through July
Stringent view
Based on the criterion that the model must show Harris taking at least 50.25% of the two-candidate split, Harris would win none of the swing states, resulting in 226-312 Electoral College loss.
Historical view
Based on the criterion that the model shows Harris doing at least as well as Biden did in 2020 in the two-candidate split, Harris would win none of the swing states resulting in a 226-312 Electoral College loss.
Relaxed view
Based on the criterion that the model shows Harris winning by at least 50% plus one vote of the two-candidate split, Harris would six of the seven swing states (having lost in North Carolina), taking 77 electoral votes resulting in a 303-235 Electoral College victory.
The poll results conducted in the seven swing states in March, April, May, June, July (before Biden withdrew) showed presidential preference divided, but favoring Trump in more states than Biden. After Biden withdrew, polling showed Harris generally holding steady in polling through the end of July. In the August pre-convention polls, Harris's nuimbers improved. Each of the poll results has a greater or smaller degree of uncertainty that depends primarily on how many answers were collected. Taking into account, however, the results of 2020, although there were signs of erosion in Biden's support, the performance is better than the standalone polls would suggest. The choice of model is intended to dampen volatility. To date, the results are consistent with an eroding margin in the swing states won by the Democrats in 2020. North Carolina has been static. There has not been sufficient polling to determine if Harris is reversing the previous trend to exceed tne 2020 margins.
The model is based on the Bayesian analysis described in Methodology It begins with the relative share of the two-candidate popular vote won by Biden in each of the swing states in 2020 adjusted by the effect of polling conducted to date.
A total of 44 electoral votes from the swing states is a win, given her safe state edge of 226-219 over Trump.
The model is not a prediction, but only a projection using stated assumptions. Is is only a mathematical representation of the combined information that is derivable from the actual results of millions of voters in those states and the survey responses of hundreds of voters from the same states. Little weight should be given to the likelihoods so far in advance of the election. Beginning with the reports of August polls, expected in early September, political polls historically begin to approximate electoral results.
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Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom (NFRF) made an advisory opinion request to the Federal Election Commission regarding the application of the Federal Election Campaign Act and Commission regulations to federal candidates' and officeholders' activities in support of a state ballot initiative. NFRF is a Section 401(c)(4) tax-exempt organization and has a political action committee. NFRF asked if federal candidates and office holders may solicit funds on behalf of NFRF and its PAC without restrictions on amount or source both before and after the ballot initiative qualifies for the election. Because ballot initiatives are not "elections" within the meaning of the Act, restrictions otherwise applicable under the Act do not apply to this type of fundraising. See the advisory letter May 5, 2025.
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Focus
New voters from either citizens turning 18 or from newly naturalized citizens are a major blind spot in the polls. The swing state margins were generally under 100,000 votes, and some where approaching only 10,000. In each swing state, there are enough of these new voters to determine the outcome.