North Carolina

In the 2020 election President Biden won 49.32% (0.4942) of the votes cast for Biden or Trump in North Carolina. This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 50.08% to 50.16%, . Next, the results of each month's polling is factored in on a rolling basis

Assessments are based on three criteria.

  • Stringent—Biden wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than his 2020 margin.

  • Historical—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.

  • Relaxed—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.

May assessment

A Biden victory is not within the credible interval under any of the scenarios.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.493 0.493 0.4929 0.4926 0.4935 0.0 1.0

April assessment

A Biden victory is not within the credible interval under any of the scenarios.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.4932 0.4932 0.4933 0.4927 0.4936 0.0 1.0001

March assessment

A Biden victory is not within the credible interval under any of the scenarios.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.4931 0.4931 0.4929 0.4926 0.4935 0.0 1.0004

2020 election

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.4932 0.4932 0.4932 0.4927 0.4936 0.0 0.9999

Biden wins

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
WI, PA and NC 45 270 268 Biden
AZ, PA and NC 46 271 267 Biden
NV, WI, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
GA, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
NV, WI, GA and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and NC 49 274 264 Biden
MI, PA and NC 50 275 263 Biden
NV, WI, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
GA, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, PA and NC 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and NC 52 277 261 Biden
NV, GA, MI and NC 53 278 260 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and NC 53 278 260 Biden
NV, MI, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
WI, AZ, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
NV, GA, PA and NC 57 282 256 Biden
WI, GA, MI and NC 57 282 256 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC 59 284 254 Biden
WI, MI, PA and NC 60 285 253 Biden
WI, GA, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, MI, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
AZ, GA, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC 63 288 250 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC 64 289 249 Biden
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
GA, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC 68 293 245 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 68 293 245 Biden
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 71 296 242 Biden
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 74 299 239 Biden
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 76 301 237 Biden
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 78 303 235 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 82 307 231 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 83 308 230 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 87 312 226 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 93 318 220 Biden

Trump wins

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
NC 16 241 297 Trump
NV and NC 22 247 291 Trump
WI and NC 26 251 287 Trump
AZ and NC 27 252 286 Trump
MI and NC 31 256 282 Trump
GA and NC 32 257 281 Trump
NV, WI and NC 32 257 281 Trump
NV, AZ and NC 33 258 280 Trump
PA and NC 35 260 278 Trump
NV, MI and NC 37 262 276 Trump
WI, AZ and NC 37 262 276 Trump
NV, GA and NC 38 263 275 Trump
NV, PA and NC 41 266 272 Trump
WI, MI and NC 41 266 272 Trump
WI, GA and NC 42 267 271 Trump
AZ, MI and NC 42 267 271 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and NC 43 268 270 Trump
AZ, GA and NC 43 268 270 Trump

Biden wins without North Carolina

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
WI, GA and PA 45 270 268 Biden
AZ, MI and PA 45 270 268 Biden
NV, WI, AZ and PA 46 271 267 Biden
AZ, GA and PA 46 271 267 Biden
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 272 266 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 273 265 Biden
NV, WI, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
GA, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
NV, WI, GA and PA 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and PA 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and PA 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and PA 55 280 258 Biden
NV, GA, MI and PA 56 281 257 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and PA 56 281 257 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 283 255 Biden
WI, GA, MI and PA 60 285 253 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA 62 287 251 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA 66 291 247 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA 67 292 246 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 71 296 242 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 77 302 236 Biden

State facts

  • Electoral votes: 16

  • 2020: Trump

  • 2016: Trump

  • 2020 turnout: 5,443,067

  • 2020 margin: 74,483

  • 2022 turnout (Senate): 3,689,835

  • Governor: Roy Cooper (D)

  • Senator up for election: None

  • Senate: R (2)

  • House: D (7) R (7)

  • State House: R (72) D (48)

  • State House 2024 election: All seats

  • State Senate: R (30) D (20)

  • State Senate 2024 election: All seats

  • Secretary of State: North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE) D(3) R(2)

  • NCSBE website

  • Polls close: 7:30 pm Eastern

  • Mail-in voting: Yes

  • Early in-person voting: Yes

State demographics

Label (GROUPING) NC
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
    Total population 10,698,973
        One race 92.1%
        Two races 7.4%
        Three races 0.5%
        Four or more races 0.1%
SEX AND AGE
    Total population 10,698,973
        Male 48.9%
        Female 51.1%
Under 5 years 5.5%
5 to 17 years 16.0%
18 to 24 years 9.7%
25 to 34 years 13.3%
35 to 44 years 12.9%
45 to 54 years 12.6%
55 to 64 years 12.7%
65 to 74 years 10.4%
75 years and over 7.0%
        Median age (years) 39.2
18 years and over 78.6%
21 years and over 74.4%
62 years and over 21.4%
65 years and over 17.4%
Under 18 years 2,292,928
            Male 51.2%
            Female 48.8%
18 years and over 8,406,045
            Male 48.3%
            Female 51.7%
18 to 34 years 2,454,354
            Male 50.3%
            Female 49.7%
35 to 64 years 4,085,077
            Male 49.0%
            Female 51.0%
65 years and over 1,866,614
            Male 44.0%
            Female 56.0%
RELATIONSHIP
    Population in households 10,417,729
        Householder or spouse 61.0%
        Unmarried partner 2.6%
        Child 27.6%
        Other relatives 6.1%
        Other nonrelatives 2.7%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
    Households 4,299,266
        Family households 64.8%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 25.9%
        Married-couple family 47.9%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 17.3%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 12.5%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 6.6%
        Nonfamily households 35.2%
            Male householder 15.7%
                Living alone 12.4%
                Not living alone 3.3%
            Female householder 19.5%
                Living alone 16.4%
                Not living alone 3.0%
        Average household size 2.42
        Average family size 3.00
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over 8,814,897
        Now married, except separated 49.5%
        Widowed 5.7%
        Divorced 10.3%
        Separated 2.1%
        Never married 32.4%
Male 15 years and over 4,267,986
        Now married, except separated 51.9%
        Widowed 2.8%
        Divorced 8.5%
        Separated 1.9%
        Never married 34.9%
Female 15 years and over 4,546,911
        Now married, except separated 47.3%
        Widowed 8.5%
        Divorced 11.9%
        Separated 2.3%
        Never married 30.1%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 2,483,789
        Nursery school, preschool 5.3%
        Kindergarten 5.0%
Elementary school (grades 1-8) 41.1%
High school (grades 9-12) 22.0%
        College or graduate school 26.6%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,222,590
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 71.3%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 23.1%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,261,199
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 64.9%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 30.1%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over 7,372,120
        Less than high school diploma 9.8%
        High school graduate (includes equivalency) 24.9%
        Some college or associate's degree 29.4%
        Bachelor's degree 22.8%
        Graduate or professional degree 13.2%
        High school graduate or higher 90.2%
            Male, high school graduate or higher 88.8%
            Female, high school graduate or higher 91.4%
        Bachelor's degree or higher 35.9%
            Male, bachelor's degree or higher 34.2%
            Female, bachelor's degree or higher 37.5%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years 2,518,824
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 129,267
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 42,336
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months 32.8%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over 6,677,445
        Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) 2.9%
            Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren 41.6%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over 8,294,906
        Civilian veteran 7.5%
DISABILITY STATUS
    Total civilian noninstitutionalized population 10,480,843
        With a disability 13.7%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years 2,290,759
        With a disability 4.6%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years 6,365,446
        With a disability 11.4%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older 1,824,638
        With a disability 33.3%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over 10,588,557
        Same house 87.3%
        Different house in the U.S. 12.2%
            Same county 5.2%
            Different county 6.9%
                Same state 3.7%
                Different state 3.2%
        Abroad 0.6%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
    Native 9,782,186
        Male 48.8%
        Female 51.2%
    Foreign born 916,787
        Male 49.5%
        Female 50.5%
        Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen 404,205
            Male 47.3%
            Female 52.7%
        Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen 512,582
            Male 51.2%
            Female 48.8%
    Population born outside the United States 916,787
Entered 2010 or later 35.9%
Entered 2000 to 2009 26.6%
Entered before 2000 37.6%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
    Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea 916,787
        Europe 12.0%
        Asia 28.0%
        Africa 8.3%
        Oceania 0.4%
        Latin America 49.1%
        Northern America 2.2%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over 10,114,481
        English only 87.3%
        Language other than English 12.7%
            Speak English less than "very well" 4.8%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over 8,671,939
        In labor force 62.8%
            Civilian labor force 61.5%
                Employed 59.2%
                Unemployed 2.3%
                    Unemployment Rate 3.8%
            Armed Forces 1.3%
        Not in labor force 37.2%
Females 16 years and over 4,477,069
        In labor force 58.1%
            Civilian labor force 57.8%
                Employed 55.6%
                Unemployed 2.2%
                    Unemployment Rate 3.8%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 5,130,773
        Car, truck, or van - drove alone 71.2%
        Car, truck, or van - carpooled 8.5%
        Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 0.5%
        Walked 1.6%
        Other means 1.4%
        Worked from home 16.8%
        Mean travel time to work (minutes) 25.1
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 5,135,307
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 42.0%
        Service occupations 15.3%
        Sales and office occupations 19.9%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 8.7%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 14.1%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,646,717
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 37.1%
        Service occupations 12.8%
        Sales and office occupations 14.2%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 15.9%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 20.0%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,488,590
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 47.3%
        Service occupations 18.0%
        Sales and office occupations 26.0%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 1.0%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 7.7%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 5,135,307
        Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 1.1%
        Construction 7.2%
        Manufacturing 11.7%
        Wholesale trade 2.0%
        Retail trade 11.3%
        Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 5.5%
        Information 1.6%
        Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 7.2%
        Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 12.9%
        Educational services, and health care and social assistance 22.2%
        Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 8.3%
        Other services (except public administration) 4.9%
        Public administration 4.1%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 5,135,307
        Private wage and salary workers 80.6%
        Government workers 13.5%
        Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 5.8%
        Unpaid family workers 0.2%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
    Households 4,299,266
        Median household income (dollars) 67,481
        With earnings 76.7%
            Mean earnings (dollars) 96,470
        With Social Security income 31.8%
            Mean Social Security income (dollars) 22,539
        With Supplemental Security Income 4.7%
            Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 10,492
        With cash public assistance income 1.6%
            Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 3,315
        With retirement income 24.5%
            Mean retirement income (dollars) 28,316
        With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits 13.4%
    Families 2,785,497
        Median family income (dollars) 83,448
            Married-couple family 73.9%
        Median income (dollars) 99,793
            Male householder, no spouse present, family 6.8%
        Median income (dollars) 56,963
            Female householder, no husband present, family 19.4%
        Median income (dollars) 43,242
    Individuals 10,698,973
        Per capita income (dollars) 38,701
        With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 2,175,288
            Female 1,711,122
        Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 80,257
            Female 61,140
        Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 55,156
            Female 47,092
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
    Civilian noninstitutionalized population 10,480,843
        With private health insurance 67.8%
        With public coverage 35.9%
        No health insurance coverage 9.3%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
    All families 9.3%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 14.6%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 12.7%
        Married-couple family 4.5%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 5.6%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 4.2%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 26.3%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 35.1%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 36.5%
    All people 12.8%
Under 18 years 17.2%
Related children of the householder under 18 years 16.9%
Related children of the householder under 5 years 18.3%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years 16.4%
18 years and over 11.5%
18 to 64 years 11.7%
65 years and over 10.9%
        People in families 10.1%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 23.7%
HOUSING TENURE
    Occupied housing units 4,299,266
        Owner-occupied housing units 66.7%
        Renter-occupied housing units 33.3%
        Average household size of owner-occupied unit 2.53
        Average household size of renter-occupied unit 2.20
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
    Occupied housing units 4,299,266
1-unit, detached or attached 71.4%
2 to 4 units 4.6%
5 or more units 13.5%
        Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. 10.5%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
    Occupied housing units 4,299,266
Built 2020 or later 2.9%
Built 2010 to 2019 15.3%
Built 2000 to 2009 19.4%
Built 1980 to 1999 30.0%
Built 1960 to 1979 19.4%
Built 1940 to 1959 8.7%
Built 1939 or earlier 4.4%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
    Occupied housing units 4,299,266
        None 5.0%
1 or more 95.0%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
    Occupied housing units 4,299,266
        Gas 30.3%
        Electricity 65.7%
        All other fuels 3.4%
        No fuel used 0.6%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
    Occupied housing units 4,299,266
        No telephone service available 0.9%
1.01 or more occupants per room 2.3%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) 1,770,630
Less than 30 percent 76.3%
30 percent or more 23.7%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
    Owner-occupied housing units 2,868,467
        Median value (dollars) 280,600
        Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) 1,444
        Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) 444
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) 1,300,902
Less than 30 percent 51.6%
30 percent or more 48.4%
GROSS RENT
    Occupied units paying rent 1,331,663
        Median gross rent (dollars) 1,131
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
    Total households 4,299,266
        With a computer 95.4%
        With a broadband Internet subscription 90.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: June 20, 2024.