New Voters

Newly eligible to vote based on age

Children who were 14 to 17-years old at the time of the 2020 election will be of age to vote for the 2024 election if they are citizens.

Gender Arizona Georgia Michigan Nevada North Carolina Pennsylvania Wisconsin
M14 49,314 76,728 64,878 20,648 69,120 80,041 38,868
M15 49,487 76,928 66,271 20,690 69,202 80,113 38,736
M16 49,613 76,829 67,403 20,669 69,441 81,130 39,287
M17 48,604 75,491 66,978 20,348 68,463 80,446 38,025
F14 46,967 73,160 62,026 19,669 66,133 75,657 36,904
F15 47,416 73,275 62,115 19,677 66,411 76,125 36,639
F16 46,989 74,000 64,352 19,232 66,083 77,305 37,258
F17 45,872 71,978 63,572 19,027 65,174 75,934 35,825
New voting age 384,262 598,389 517,595 159,960 540,027 626,751 301,542
Estimated eligible 353.521 556,502 486,539 155,161 523,826 595,413 295,511

Source: 2020 Census Table P14 | SEX BY AGE FOR THE POPULATION UNDER 20 YEARS

Some of these new voters also became naturalized citizens between the 2020 and 2024 elections, as shown below. Proportions of citizens to total population of each age cohort was estimated based on the proportion shown for each state in 2022 from the source used for the table below.

Even at turnouts as low as 50% (comparable to 2020) this demographic dwarfs the 2020 margins of victory in the seven swing states. How they break between Biden and Trump has the potential to determine the outcome of the election.

Comparison of First-Time vs. Repeat Voter Turnout

  • First-Time Voters: First-time voters, while showing increased enthusiasm and participation in 2020, often face higher hurdles:

    • Registration Challenges: They must navigate the registration process for the first time, which can be a barrier.

    • Lack of Voting Habit: Without the habit of voting, first-time voters might need more motivation or mobilization to participate.

    • Information Gaps: They might lack information about where, when, and how to vote.

  • Repeat Voters: Typically, repeat voters have higher turnout rates due to several factors:

    • Habitual Voting: Voting behavior can be habitual. Those who have voted in past elections are more likely to vote again.

    • Familiarity with the Process: Repeat voters are generally more familiar with the voting process and less deterred by logistical barriers.

    • Stable Registration: They are more likely to have stable registration status and less likely to encounter registration issues.

Naturalized

Citizens who have became naturalized after the 2020 election will be eligible to vote in 2024.

Those new citizen represent numbers equal to

  • 84% of Trumps winning margin in North Carolina

  • 41% of Biden's winning margin in Michigan

  • 127% of Biden's winning margin in Nevada

  • 132% of Biden's winning margin in Pennsylvania

  • 760% of Biden's winning margin in Arizona

  • 856% of Biden's winning margin in Georgia

State FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Total 2020 Margin Ratio
AZ 17,512 16,396 25,710 19,872 79,490 10,457 7.60
GA 16,476 28,440 30,696 25,204 100,816 11,779 8.56
MI 11,716 16,077 19,754 15,849 63,396 154,188 0.41
NV 8,061 10,573 13,347 10,660 42,642 33,596 1.27
NC 13,173 13,626 19,986 15,595 62,380 -74,483 0.84
PA 19,693 26,747 33,066 26,502 106,008 80,555 1.32
WI 5,029 6,125 8,091 6,415 25,660 20,682 1.24
Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2022: Table 22 Persons Naturalized by State or Territory of Residence: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2022

While turnout of newly naturalized citizens lags the general population, it is still substantial, with turnout running only 9% behind the general levels in the 2020 election. New American Voters: 2022

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: May 08, 2024.