New Voters

Newly eligible to vote based on age

Children who were 14 to 17-years old at the time of the 2020 election will be of age to vote for the 2024 election if they are citizens.

Gender	Arizona	Georgia	Michigan	Nevada	North Carolina	Pennsylvania	Wisconsin
M14	49,314	76,728	64,878	20,648	69,120	80,041	38,868
M15	49,487	76,928	66,271	20,690	69,202	80,113	38,736
M16	49,613	76,829	67,403	20,669	69,441	81,130	39,287
M17	48,604	75,491	66,978	20,348	68,463	80,446	38,025
F14	46,967	73,160	62,026	19,669	66,133	75,657	36,904
F15	47,416	73,275	62,115	19,677	66,411	76,125	36,639
F16	46,989	74,000	64,352	19,232	66,083	77,305	37,258
F17	45,872	71,978	63,572	19,027	65,174	75,934	35,825
New voting age	384,262	598,389	517,595	159,960	540,027	626,751	301,542
Estimated eligible	353.521	556,502	486,539	155,161	523,826	595,413	295,511

Source: 2020 Census Table P14 | SEX BY AGE FOR THE POPULATION UNDER 20 YEARS

Some of these new voters also became naturalized citizens between the 2020 and 2024 elections, as shown below. Proportions of citizens to total population of each age cohort was estimated based on the proportion shown for each state in 2022 from the source used for the table below.

Even at turnouts as low as 50% (comparable to 2020) this demographic dwarfs the 2020 margins of victory in the seven swing states. How they break between Harris and Trump has the potential to determine the outcome of the election.

Comparison of First-Time vs. Repeat Voter Turnout

First-Time Voters: First-time voters, while showing increased enthusiasm and participation in 2020, often face higher hurdles:
- Registration Challenges: They must navigate the registration process for the first time, which can be a barrier.
- Lack of Voting Habit: Without the habit of voting, first-time voters might need more motivation or mobilization to participate.
- Information Gaps: They might lack information about where, when, and how to vote.
Repeat Voters: Typically, repeat voters have higher turnout rates due to several factors:
- Habitual Voting: Voting behavior can be habitual. Those who have voted in past elections are more likely to vote again.
- Familiarity with the Process: Repeat voters are generally more familiar with the voting process and less deterred by logistical barriers.
- Stable Registration: They are more likely to have stable registration status and less likely to encounter registration issues.

Naturalized

Citizens who have became naturalized after the 2020 election will be eligible to vote in 2024.

Those new citizen represent numbers equal to

84% of Trumps winning margin in North Carolina
41% of Harris's winning margin in Michigan
127% of Harris's winning margin in Nevada
132% of Harris's winning margin in Pennsylvania
760% of Harris's winning margin in Arizona
856% of Harris's winning margin in Georgia

State	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	Total	2020 Margin	Ratio
AZ	17,512	16,396	25,710	19,872	79,490	10,457	7.60
GA	16,476	28,440	30,696	25,204	100,816	11,779	8.56
MI	11,716	16,077	19,754	15,849	63,396	154,188	0.41
NV	8,061	10,573	13,347	10,660	42,642	33,596	1.27
NC	13,173	13,626	19,986	15,595	62,380	-74,483	0.84
PA	19,693	26,747	33,066	26,502	106,008	80,555	1.32
WI	5,029	6,125	8,091	6,415	25,660	20,682	1.24

Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2022: Table 22 Persons Naturalized by State or Territory of Residence: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2022

While turnout of newly naturalized citizens lags the general population, it is still substantial, with turnout running only 9% behind the general levels in the 2020 election. New American Voters: 2022