June assessment
May assessment
April assessment
March assessment
2020 election
Scenarios
State facts
2022 demographics
Terms

Model results

In the 2020 election President Biden won 51.22% (0.5122) of the votes cast for Biden or Trump in Nevada. This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 51.1% to 51.3%. Next, the results of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis

Assessments are based on three criteria.

Stringent—Harris wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than his 2020 margin.
Historical—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.
Relaxed—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.

June assessment

Harris wins under the Relaxed criterion

median	mean	mode	q025	q975	mcse	rhat
0.5119	0.5119	0.512	0.5111	0.5128	0.0	0.9999

May assessment

Harris wins under the Relaxed criterion

median	mean	mode	q025	q975	mcse	rhat
0.512	0.512	0.5126	0.5112	0.5129	0.0	1.0

April assessment

Harris wins under the Relaxed criterion

median	mean	mode	q025	q975	mcse	rhat
0.5031	0.5031	0.5032	0.5026	0.5037	0.0	1.0003

March assessment

Harris wins under the Relaxed criterion

median	mean	mode	q025	q975	mcse	rhat
0.5122	0.5122	0.512	0.5113	0.513	0.0	1.0

2020 election

median	mean	mode	q025	q975	mcse	rhat
0.5122	0.5122	0.5121	0.5114	0.5131	0.0	1.0

Bloomberg/Morning Consult

Emerson College

WSJ

News

A ballot initiative to amend the state constitution has been cleared by the Nevada Supreme Court.

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Nevada. Not included is the trivial case where one candidate takes all of the swing states. Nevada is represented in 64 of the 127 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris.

Harris wins

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris Votes	Trump Votes	Result
NV, WI, AZ and PA	46	271	267	Harris
NV, WI, GA and MI	47	272	266	Harris
NV, WI, MI and NC	47	272	266	Harris
NV, WI, GA and NC	48	273	265	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and MI	48	273	265	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and NC	48	273	265	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and NC	49	274	264	Harris
NV, WI, MI and PA	50	275	263	Harris
NV, WI, GA and PA	51	276	262	Harris
NV, WI, PA and NC	51	276	262	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and PA	51	276	262	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and PA	52	277	261	Harris
NV, AZ, PA and NC	52	277	261	Harris
NV, GA, MI and NC	53	278	260	Harris
NV, GA, MI and PA	56	281	257	Harris
NV, MI, PA and NC	56	281	257	Harris
NV, GA, PA and NC	57	282	256	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI	58	283	255	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC	58	283	255	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC	59	284	254	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA	61	286	252	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA	62	287	251	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC	62	287	251	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC	63	288	250	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC	64	289	249	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA	66	291	247	Harris
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC	66	291	247	Harris
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC	67	292	246	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA	67	292	246	Harris
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC	67	292	246	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC	68	293	245	Harris
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC	72	297	241	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	74	299	239	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	77	302	236	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	77	302	236	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	78	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	82	307	231	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	83	308	230	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	93	318	220	Harris

Trump wins

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris Votes	Trump Votes	Result
NV	6	231	307	Trump
NV and WI	16	241	297	Trump
NV and AZ	17	242	296	Trump
NV and MI	21	246	292	Trump
NV and GA	22	247	291	Trump
NV and NC	22	247	291	Trump
NV and PA	25	250	288	Trump
NV, WI and AZ	27	252	286	Trump
NV, WI and MI	31	256	282	Trump
NV, WI and GA	32	257	281	Trump
NV, WI and NC	32	257	281	Trump
NV, AZ and MI	32	257	281	Trump
NV, AZ and GA	33	258	280	Trump
NV, AZ and NC	33	258	280	Trump
NV, WI and PA	35	260	278	Trump
NV, AZ and PA	36	261	277	Trump
NV, GA and MI	37	262	276	Trump
NV, MI and NC	37	262	276	Trump
NV, GA and NC	38	263	275	Trump
NV, MI and PA	40	265	273	Trump
NV, GA and PA	41	266	272	Trump
NV, PA and NC	41	266	272	Trump
NV, WI, AZ and MI	42	267	271	Trump
NV, WI, AZ and GA	43	268	270	Trump
NV, WI, AZ and NC	43	268	270	Trump

Harris wins without Nevada

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris Votes	Trump Votes	Result
WI, GA and PA	45	270	268	Harris
WI, PA and NC	45	270	268	Harris
AZ, MI and PA	45	270	268	Harris
AZ, GA and PA	46	271	267	Harris
AZ, PA and NC	46	271	267	Harris
GA, MI and NC	47	272	266	Harris
GA, MI and PA	50	275	263	Harris
MI, PA and NC	50	275	263	Harris
GA, PA and NC	51	276	262	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and MI	52	277	261	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and NC	52	277	261	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and NC	53	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and PA	55	280	258	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and PA	56	281	257	Harris
WI, AZ, PA and NC	56	281	257	Harris
WI, GA, MI and NC	57	282	256	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and NC	58	283	255	Harris
WI, GA, MI and PA	60	285	253	Harris
WI, MI, PA and NC	60	285	253	Harris
WI, GA, PA and NC	61	286	252	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and PA	61	286	252	Harris
AZ, MI, PA and NC	61	286	252	Harris
AZ, GA, PA and NC	62	287	251	Harris
GA, MI, PA and NC	66	291	247	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	68	293	245	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	71	296	242	Harris
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	71	296	242	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	72	297	241	Harris
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	76	301	237	Harris
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	77	302	236	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	87	312	226	Harris

Other news

Nevada acceptance of mailed ballots after election day

On May 3, 2025, the Republican National Committee and others filed a complaint in Federal District Court for the District of Nevada against Nevada election officials seeking to prevent mail-in ballots not received by election day from being counted.

REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE; NEVADA REPUBLICAN PARTY; DONALD J.TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT 2024, INC.; and DONALD J. SZYMANSKI, Plaintiffs, v.CARI-ANN BURGESS, in her official capacity as the Washoe County Registrar of Voters; JAN GALASSINI, in her official capacity as the Washoe County Clerk; LORENA PORTILLO, in her official capacity as the Clark County Registrar of Voters; LYNN MARIE GOYA, in her official capacity as the Clark County Clerk; FRANCISCO AGUILAR, in his official capacity as Nevada Secretary of State, Defendants. Case 3:24-cv-00198.

Nevada contravenes those federal laws by counting mail ballots that are received up to four business days after Election Day, Nev. Rev. Stat. §293.269921(1)(b), and by presuming that ballots received up to three days after Election Day “have been postmarked on or before the day of the election,” id. §293.269921(2). Nevada effectively extends Nevada’s federal election past the Election Day established by Congress.

Comment Similar actions can be expected in all other jurisdictions that have similar arrangements. One of the allegations cites the Electors Clause

Exercising that power [pursuant to the Electors Clause], Congress has established that “[t]he electors of President and Vice President shall be appointed, in each State, on election day, in accordance with the laws of the State enacted prior to election day.” 3 U.S.C. §1. [emphasis added]

which could also be used to argue that electors must be appointed on election day and that no votes counted after midnight can be considered. However, that argument runs counter to 3 U.S.C. § 5

(a)In general.– (1) Certification.–Not later than the date that is 6 days before the time fixed for the meeting of the electors, the executive of each State shall issue a certificate of ascertainment of appointment of electors, under and in pursuance of the laws of such State providing for such appointment and ascertainment enacted prior to election day.

State facts

Electoral votes: 6
2020: Harris
2016: Trump
2020 turnout: 1,373,376
2020 margin: 33,596
2022 turnout (Senate): 988,704
Governor: Joe Lombardo
Senator up for election: Jackie Rosen (D)
Senate: D (2)
House: D (3) R (1)
State House: D (28) R (14)
State House 2024 election: All seats
State Senate: D (13) R (7) V (1)
State Senate 2024 election: D ( 6) R (4) V (1)
Secretary of State: Francisco V. Aguilar
SoS website
Polls close: 7 pm Pacific
Mail-in voting: Yes
Early in-person voting: Yes

State demographics

Label (GROUPING)	NV
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
Total population	3,177,772
One race	82.3%
Two races	16.3%
Three races	1.3%
Four or more races	0.1%
SEX AND AGE
Total population	3,177,772
Male	50.3%
Female	49.7%
Under 5 years	5.4%
5 to 17 years	16.3%
18 to 24 years	8.3%
25 to 34 years	14.4%
35 to 44 years	13.9%
45 to 54 years	12.5%
55 to 64 years	12.3%
65 to 74 years	10.2%
75 years and over	6.7%
Median age (years)	39.0
18 years and over	78.3%
21 years and over	74.8%
62 years and over	20.5%
65 years and over	16.9%
Under 18 years	689,653
Male	50.8%
Female	49.2%
18 years and over	2,488,119
Male	50.2%
Female	49.8%
18 to 34 years	720,689
Male	51.5%
Female	48.5%
35 to 64 years	1,228,939
Male	50.9%
Female	49.1%
65 years and over	538,491
Male	46.8%
Female	53.2%
RELATIONSHIP
Population in households	3,142,947
Householder or spouse	54.9%
Unmarried partner	3.3%
Child	28.3%
Other relatives	9.5%
Other nonrelatives	4.0%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
Households	1,198,356
Family households	64.6%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	25.6%
Married-couple family	44.2%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	16.0%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	13.3%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	6.7%
Nonfamily households	35.4%
Male householder	18.2%
Living alone	14.0%
Not living alone	4.1%
Female householder	17.3%
Living alone	13.5%
Not living alone	3.8%
Average household size	2.62
Average family size	3.21
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over	2,612,414
Now married, except separated	45.2%
Widowed	5.3%
Divorced	13.1%
Separated	1.7%
Never married	34.6%
Male 15 years and over	1,311,824
Now married, except separated	46.1%
Widowed	2.7%
Divorced	11.6%
Separated	1.3%
Never married	38.3%
Female 15 years and over	1,300,590
Now married, except separated	44.4%
Widowed	8.0%
Divorced	14.6%
Separated	2.1%
Never married	30.9%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school	697,833
Nursery school, preschool	4.3%
Kindergarten	5.7%
Elementary school (grades 1-8)	44.1%
High school (grades 9-12)	23.7%
College or graduate school	22.1%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school	344,041
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	76.4%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	19.5%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school	353,792
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	70.8%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	24.7%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over	2,223,852
Less than high school diploma	12.6%
High school graduate (includes equivalency)	27.9%
Some college or associate's degree	32.5%
Bachelor's degree	17.6%
Graduate or professional degree	9.5%
High school graduate or higher	87.4%
Male, high school graduate or higher	86.9%
Female, high school graduate or higher	87.9%
Bachelor's degree or higher	27.0%
Male, bachelor's degree or higher	25.9%
Female, bachelor's degree or higher	28.2%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years	741,887
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	41,310
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	12,221
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months	29.6%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over	2,005,818
Grandparents living with grandchild(ren)	4.1%
Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren	27.6%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over	2,473,493
Civilian veteran	8.3%
DISABILITY STATUS
Total civilian noninstitutionalized population	3,139,304
With a disability	14.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years	688,935
With a disability	5.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years	1,916,374
With a disability	11.9%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older	533,995
With a disability	34.4%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over	3,145,500
Same house	86.4%
Different house in the U.S.	13.1%
Same county	8.3%
Different county	4.8%
Same state	0.8%
Different state	4.1%
Abroad	0.5%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
Native	2,576,815
Male	50.9%
Female	49.1%
Foreign born	600,957
Male	48.0%
Female	52.0%
Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen	324,092
Male	44.8%
Female	55.2%
Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen	276,865
Male	51.6%
Female	48.4%
Population born outside the United States	600,957
Entered 2010 or later	23.5%
Entered 2000 to 2009	24.5%
Entered before 2000	52.0%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea	600,957
Europe	6.8%
Asia	32.7%
Africa	2.9%
Oceania	0.6%
Latin America	55.0%
Northern America	2.0%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over	3,005,197
English only	70.1%
Language other than English	29.9%
Speak English less than "very well"	11.0%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over	2,572,023
In labor force	63.3%
Civilian labor force	62.7%
Employed	59.3%
Unemployed	3.4%
Unemployment Rate	5.5%
Armed Forces	0.6%
Not in labor force	36.7%
Females 16 years and over	1,279,958
In labor force	58.6%
Civilian labor force	58.5%
Employed	55.1%
Unemployed	3.4%
Unemployment Rate	5.8%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over	1,506,293
Car, truck, or van - drove alone	70.0%
Car, truck, or van - carpooled	11.2%
Public transportation (excluding taxicab)	2.2%
Walked	1.4%
Other means	3.0%
Worked from home	12.2%
Mean travel time to work (minutes)	24.5
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	1,524,894
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	33.5%
Service occupations	22.6%
Sales and office occupations	21.9%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	8.9%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	13.0%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over	820,038
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	29.8%
Service occupations	20.6%
Sales and office occupations	16.1%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	15.7%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	17.8%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over	704,856
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	37.8%
Service occupations	25.0%
Sales and office occupations	28.7%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	1.0%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	7.5%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	1,524,894
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining	1.4%
Construction	7.5%
Manufacturing	5.5%
Wholesale trade	2.0%
Retail trade	11.3%
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities	7.3%
Information	1.7%
Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing	5.9%
Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services	12.8%
Educational services, and health care and social assistance	16.2%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services	19.9%
Other services (except public administration)	4.9%
Public administration	3.5%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	1,524,894
Private wage and salary workers	82.5%
Government workers	11.8%
Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business	5.4%
Unpaid family workers	0.3%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
Households	1,198,356
Median household income (dollars)	72,333
With earnings	77.3%
Mean earnings (dollars)	97,079
With Social Security income	31.2%
Mean Social Security income (dollars)	21,342
With Supplemental Security Income	4.7%
Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars)	11,287
With cash public assistance income	3.0%
Mean cash public assistance income (dollars)	3,758
With retirement income	24.3%
Mean retirement income (dollars)	33,150
With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits	13.4%
Families	773,666
Median family income (dollars)	85,593
Married-couple family	68.5%
Median income (dollars)	100,620
Male householder, no spouse present, family	10.8%
Median income (dollars)	69,898
Female householder, no husband present, family	20.7%
Median income (dollars)	51,080
Individuals	3,177,772
Per capita income (dollars)	38,183
With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	636,702
Female	480,066
Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	74,052
Female	62,377
Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
Male	53,821
Female	46,691
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
Civilian noninstitutionalized population	3,139,304
With private health insurance	63.4%
With public coverage	36.9%
No health insurance coverage	11.1%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
All families	9.1%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	14.0%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	12.6%
Married-couple family	5.4%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	7.2%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	4.5%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	21.1%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	28.9%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	32.3%
All people	12.5%
Under 18 years	16.1%
Related children of the householder under 18 years	15.8%
Related children of the householder under 5 years	17.2%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years	15.3%
18 years and over	11.4%
18 to 64 years	11.6%
65 years and over	10.8%
People in families	9.6%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over	23.3%
HOUSING TENURE
Occupied housing units	1,198,356
Owner-occupied housing units	60.3%
Renter-occupied housing units	39.7%
Average household size of owner-occupied unit	2.69
Average household size of renter-occupied unit	2.53
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
Occupied housing units	1,198,356
1-unit, detached or attached	68.0%
2 to 4 units	7.0%
5 or more units	19.6%
Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc.	5.3%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
Occupied housing units	1,198,356
Built 2020 or later	2.8%
Built 2010 to 2019	13.9%
Built 2000 to 2009	26.2%
Built 1980 to 1999	36.2%
Built 1960 to 1979	16.4%
Built 1940 to 1959	3.7%
Built 1939 or earlier	0.8%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
Occupied housing units	1,198,356
None	7.0%
1 or more	93.0%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
Occupied housing units	1,198,356
Gas	62.0%
Electricity	34.4%
All other fuels	3.0%
No fuel used	0.7%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
Occupied housing units	1,198,356
No telephone service available	1.2%
1.01 or more occupants per room	4.6%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed)	473,798
Less than 30 percent	69.0%
30 percent or more	31.0%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
Owner-occupied housing units	722,684
Median value (dollars)	434,700
Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars)	1,730
Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars)	486
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed)	450,409
Less than 30 percent	42.7%
30 percent or more	57.3%
GROSS RENT
Occupied units paying rent	462,009
Median gross rent (dollars)	1,461
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
Total households	1,198,356
With a computer	97.0%
With a broadband Internet subscription	91.5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates