Nevada

Model results

In the 2020 election President Biden won 51.22% (0.5122) of the votes cast for Biden or Trump in Nevada. This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 51.1% to 51.3%. Next, the results of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis

Assessments are based on three criteria.

  • Stringent—Biden wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than his 2020 margin.

  • Historical—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.

  • Relaxed—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.

May assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.512 0.512 0.5126 0.5112 0.5129 0.0 1.0

April assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5031 0.5031 0.5032 0.5026 0.5037 0.0 1.0003

March assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5122 0.5122 0.512 0.5113 0.513 0.0 1.0

2020 election

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5122 0.5122 0.5121 0.5114 0.5131 0.0 1.0

Bloomberg/Morning Consult

Emerson College

WSJ

News

A ballot initiative to amend the state constitution has been cleared by the Nevada Supreme Court.

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Nevada. Not included is the trivial case where one candidate takes all of the swing states. Nevada is represented in 64 of the 127 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Biden.

Biden wins

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
NV, WI, AZ and PA 46 271 267 Biden
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 272 266 Biden
NV, WI, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
NV, WI, GA and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and NC 49 274 264 Biden
NV, WI, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
NV, WI, GA and PA 51 276 262 Biden
NV, WI, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and PA 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and PA 52 277 261 Biden
NV, AZ, PA and NC 52 277 261 Biden
NV, GA, MI and NC 53 278 260 Biden
NV, GA, MI and PA 56 281 257 Biden
NV, MI, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
NV, GA, PA and NC 57 282 256 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 283 255 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC 59 284 254 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA 62 287 251 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC 63 288 250 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC 64 289 249 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA 66 291 247 Biden
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC 68 293 245 Biden
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 74 299 239 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 78 303 235 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 82 307 231 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 83 308 230 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 93 318 220 Biden

Trump wins

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
NV 6 231 307 Trump
NV and WI 16 241 297 Trump
NV and AZ 17 242 296 Trump
NV and MI 21 246 292 Trump
NV and GA 22 247 291 Trump
NV and NC 22 247 291 Trump
NV and PA 25 250 288 Trump
NV, WI and AZ 27 252 286 Trump
NV, WI and MI 31 256 282 Trump
NV, WI and GA 32 257 281 Trump
NV, WI and NC 32 257 281 Trump
NV, AZ and MI 32 257 281 Trump
NV, AZ and GA 33 258 280 Trump
NV, AZ and NC 33 258 280 Trump
NV, WI and PA 35 260 278 Trump
NV, AZ and PA 36 261 277 Trump
NV, GA and MI 37 262 276 Trump
NV, MI and NC 37 262 276 Trump
NV, GA and NC 38 263 275 Trump
NV, MI and PA 40 265 273 Trump
NV, GA and PA 41 266 272 Trump
NV, PA and NC 41 266 272 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and MI 42 267 271 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and GA 43 268 270 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and NC 43 268 270 Trump

Biden wins without Nevada

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
WI, GA and PA 45 270 268 Biden
WI, PA and NC 45 270 268 Biden
AZ, MI and PA 45 270 268 Biden
AZ, GA and PA 46 271 267 Biden
AZ, PA and NC 46 271 267 Biden
GA, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
GA, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
MI, PA and NC 50 275 263 Biden
GA, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and NC 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and NC 53 278 260 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and PA 55 280 258 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and PA 56 281 257 Biden
WI, AZ, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
WI, GA, MI and NC 57 282 256 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
WI, GA, MI and PA 60 285 253 Biden
WI, MI, PA and NC 60 285 253 Biden
WI, GA, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, MI, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, GA, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
GA, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 68 293 245 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 71 296 242 Biden
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 71 296 242 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 76 301 237 Biden
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 87 312 226 Biden

Other news

Nevada acceptance of mailed ballots after election day

On May 3, 2025, the Republican National Committee and others filed a complaint in Federal District Court for the District of Nevada against Nevada election officials seeking to prevent mail-in ballots not received by election day from being counted.

REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE; NEVADA REPUBLICAN PARTY; DONALD J.TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT 2024, INC.; and DONALD J. SZYMANSKI, Plaintiffs, v.CARI-ANN BURGESS, in her official capacity as the Washoe County Registrar of Voters; JAN GALASSINI, in her official capacity as the Washoe County Clerk; LORENA PORTILLO, in her official capacity as the Clark County Registrar of Voters; LYNN MARIE GOYA, in her official capacity as the Clark County Clerk; FRANCISCO AGUILAR, in his official capacity as Nevada Secretary of State, Defendants. Case 3:24-cv-00198.

Nevada contravenes those federal laws by counting mail ballots that are received up to four business days after Election Day, Nev. Rev. Stat. §293.269921(1)(b), and by presuming that ballots received up to three days after Election Day “have been postmarked on or before the day of the election,” id. §293.269921(2). Nevada effectively extends Nevada’s federal election past the Election Day established by Congress.

Comment Similar actions can be expected in all other jurisdictions that have similar arrangements. One of the allegations cites the Electors Clause

Exercising that power [pursuant to the Electors Clause], Congress has established that “[t]he electors of President and Vice President shall be appointed, in each State, on election day, in accordance with the laws of the State enacted prior to election day.” 3 U.S.C. §1. [emphasis added]

which could also be used to argue that electors must be appointed on election day and that no votes counted after midnight can be considered. However, that argument runs counter to 3 U.S.C. § 5

(a)In general.– (1) Certification.–Not later than the date that is 6 days before the time fixed for the meeting of the electors, the executive of each State shall issue a certificate of ascertainment of appointment of electors, under and in pursuance of the laws of such State providing for such appointment and ascertainment enacted prior to election day.

State facts

  • Electoral votes: 6

  • 2020: Biden

  • 2016: Trump

  • 2020 turnout: 1,373,376

  • 2020 margin: 33,596

  • 2022 turnout (Senate): 988,704

  • Governor: Joe Lombardo

  • Senator up for election: Jackie Rosen (D)

  • Senate: D (2)

  • House: D (3) R (1)

  • State House: D (28) R (14)

  • State House 2024 election: All seats

  • State Senate: D (13) R (7) V (1)

  • State Senate 2024 election: D ( 6) R (4) V (1)

  • Secretary of State: Francisco V. Aguilar

  • SoS website

  • Polls close: 7 pm Pacific

  • Mail-in voting: Yes

  • Early in-person voting: Yes

State demographics

Label (GROUPING) NV
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
    Total population 3,177,772
        One race 82.3%
        Two races 16.3%
        Three races 1.3%
        Four or more races 0.1%
SEX AND AGE
    Total population 3,177,772
        Male 50.3%
        Female 49.7%
Under 5 years 5.4%
5 to 17 years 16.3%
18 to 24 years 8.3%
25 to 34 years 14.4%
35 to 44 years 13.9%
45 to 54 years 12.5%
55 to 64 years 12.3%
65 to 74 years 10.2%
75 years and over 6.7%
        Median age (years) 39.0
18 years and over 78.3%
21 years and over 74.8%
62 years and over 20.5%
65 years and over 16.9%
Under 18 years 689,653
            Male 50.8%
            Female 49.2%
18 years and over 2,488,119
            Male 50.2%
            Female 49.8%
18 to 34 years 720,689
            Male 51.5%
            Female 48.5%
35 to 64 years 1,228,939
            Male 50.9%
            Female 49.1%
65 years and over 538,491
            Male 46.8%
            Female 53.2%
RELATIONSHIP
    Population in households 3,142,947
        Householder or spouse 54.9%
        Unmarried partner 3.3%
        Child 28.3%
        Other relatives 9.5%
        Other nonrelatives 4.0%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
    Households 1,198,356
        Family households 64.6%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 25.6%
        Married-couple family 44.2%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 16.0%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 13.3%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 6.7%
        Nonfamily households 35.4%
            Male householder 18.2%
                Living alone 14.0%
                Not living alone 4.1%
            Female householder 17.3%
                Living alone 13.5%
                Not living alone 3.8%
        Average household size 2.62
        Average family size 3.21
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over 2,612,414
        Now married, except separated 45.2%
        Widowed 5.3%
        Divorced 13.1%
        Separated 1.7%
        Never married 34.6%
Male 15 years and over 1,311,824
        Now married, except separated 46.1%
        Widowed 2.7%
        Divorced 11.6%
        Separated 1.3%
        Never married 38.3%
Female 15 years and over 1,300,590
        Now married, except separated 44.4%
        Widowed 8.0%
        Divorced 14.6%
        Separated 2.1%
        Never married 30.9%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 697,833
        Nursery school, preschool 4.3%
        Kindergarten 5.7%
Elementary school (grades 1-8) 44.1%
High school (grades 9-12) 23.7%
        College or graduate school 22.1%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school 344,041
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 76.4%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 19.5%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school 353,792
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 70.8%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 24.7%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over 2,223,852
        Less than high school diploma 12.6%
        High school graduate (includes equivalency) 27.9%
        Some college or associate's degree 32.5%
        Bachelor's degree 17.6%
        Graduate or professional degree 9.5%
        High school graduate or higher 87.4%
            Male, high school graduate or higher 86.9%
            Female, high school graduate or higher 87.9%
        Bachelor's degree or higher 27.0%
            Male, bachelor's degree or higher 25.9%
            Female, bachelor's degree or higher 28.2%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years 741,887
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 41,310
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 12,221
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months 29.6%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over 2,005,818
        Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) 4.1%
            Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren 27.6%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over 2,473,493
        Civilian veteran 8.3%
DISABILITY STATUS
    Total civilian noninstitutionalized population 3,139,304
        With a disability 14.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years 688,935
        With a disability 5.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years 1,916,374
        With a disability 11.9%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older 533,995
        With a disability 34.4%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over 3,145,500
        Same house 86.4%
        Different house in the U.S. 13.1%
            Same county 8.3%
            Different county 4.8%
                Same state 0.8%
                Different state 4.1%
        Abroad 0.5%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
    Native 2,576,815
        Male 50.9%
        Female 49.1%
    Foreign born 600,957
        Male 48.0%
        Female 52.0%
        Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen 324,092
            Male 44.8%
            Female 55.2%
        Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen 276,865
            Male 51.6%
            Female 48.4%
    Population born outside the United States 600,957
Entered 2010 or later 23.5%
Entered 2000 to 2009 24.5%
Entered before 2000 52.0%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
    Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea 600,957
        Europe 6.8%
        Asia 32.7%
        Africa 2.9%
        Oceania 0.6%
        Latin America 55.0%
        Northern America 2.0%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over 3,005,197
        English only 70.1%
        Language other than English 29.9%
            Speak English less than "very well" 11.0%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over 2,572,023
        In labor force 63.3%
            Civilian labor force 62.7%
                Employed 59.3%
                Unemployed 3.4%
                    Unemployment Rate 5.5%
            Armed Forces 0.6%
        Not in labor force 36.7%
Females 16 years and over 1,279,958
        In labor force 58.6%
            Civilian labor force 58.5%
                Employed 55.1%
                Unemployed 3.4%
                    Unemployment Rate 5.8%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 1,506,293
        Car, truck, or van - drove alone 70.0%
        Car, truck, or van - carpooled 11.2%
        Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 2.2%
        Walked 1.4%
        Other means 3.0%
        Worked from home 12.2%
        Mean travel time to work (minutes) 24.5
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 1,524,894
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 33.5%
        Service occupations 22.6%
        Sales and office occupations 21.9%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 8.9%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 13.0%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over 820,038
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 29.8%
        Service occupations 20.6%
        Sales and office occupations 16.1%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 15.7%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 17.8%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over 704,856
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 37.8%
        Service occupations 25.0%
        Sales and office occupations 28.7%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 1.0%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 7.5%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 1,524,894
        Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 1.4%
        Construction 7.5%
        Manufacturing 5.5%
        Wholesale trade 2.0%
        Retail trade 11.3%
        Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 7.3%
        Information 1.7%
        Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 5.9%
        Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 12.8%
        Educational services, and health care and social assistance 16.2%
        Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 19.9%
        Other services (except public administration) 4.9%
        Public administration 3.5%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 1,524,894
        Private wage and salary workers 82.5%
        Government workers 11.8%
        Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 5.4%
        Unpaid family workers 0.3%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
    Households 1,198,356
        Median household income (dollars) 72,333
        With earnings 77.3%
            Mean earnings (dollars) 97,079
        With Social Security income 31.2%
            Mean Social Security income (dollars) 21,342
        With Supplemental Security Income 4.7%
            Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 11,287
        With cash public assistance income 3.0%
            Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 3,758
        With retirement income 24.3%
            Mean retirement income (dollars) 33,150
        With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits 13.4%
    Families 773,666
        Median family income (dollars) 85,593
            Married-couple family 68.5%
        Median income (dollars) 100,620
            Male householder, no spouse present, family 10.8%
        Median income (dollars) 69,898
            Female householder, no husband present, family 20.7%
        Median income (dollars) 51,080
    Individuals 3,177,772
        Per capita income (dollars) 38,183
        With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 636,702
            Female 480,066
        Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 74,052
            Female 62,377
        Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 53,821
            Female 46,691
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
    Civilian noninstitutionalized population 3,139,304
        With private health insurance 63.4%
        With public coverage 36.9%
        No health insurance coverage 11.1%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
    All families 9.1%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 14.0%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 12.6%
        Married-couple family 5.4%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 7.2%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 4.5%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 21.1%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 28.9%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 32.3%
    All people 12.5%
Under 18 years 16.1%
Related children of the householder under 18 years 15.8%
Related children of the householder under 5 years 17.2%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years 15.3%
18 years and over 11.4%
18 to 64 years 11.6%
65 years and over 10.8%
        People in families 9.6%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 23.3%
HOUSING TENURE
    Occupied housing units 1,198,356
        Owner-occupied housing units 60.3%
        Renter-occupied housing units 39.7%
        Average household size of owner-occupied unit 2.69
        Average household size of renter-occupied unit 2.53
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
    Occupied housing units 1,198,356
1-unit, detached or attached 68.0%
2 to 4 units 7.0%
5 or more units 19.6%
        Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. 5.3%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
    Occupied housing units 1,198,356
Built 2020 or later 2.8%
Built 2010 to 2019 13.9%
Built 2000 to 2009 26.2%
Built 1980 to 1999 36.2%
Built 1960 to 1979 16.4%
Built 1940 to 1959 3.7%
Built 1939 or earlier 0.8%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
    Occupied housing units 1,198,356
        None 7.0%
1 or more 93.0%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
    Occupied housing units 1,198,356
        Gas 62.0%
        Electricity 34.4%
        All other fuels 3.0%
        No fuel used 0.7%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
    Occupied housing units 1,198,356
        No telephone service available 1.2%
1.01 or more occupants per room 4.6%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) 473,798
Less than 30 percent 69.0%
30 percent or more 31.0%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
    Owner-occupied housing units 722,684
        Median value (dollars) 434,700
        Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) 1,730
        Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) 486
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) 450,409
Less than 30 percent 42.7%
30 percent or more 57.3%
GROSS RENT
    Occupied units paying rent 462,009
        Median gross rent (dollars) 1,461
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
    Total households 1,198,356
        With a computer 97.0%
        With a broadband Internet subscription 91.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: June 19, 2024.