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Superseding event
As of July 22, 2024, Vice President Harris will replace President Harris as the nominee of the Democratic Party and a new model will need to be developed to reflect that change. The plan is to aggregate the polls conducted in July prior to July 21, 2024 (when Harris withdrew) as the prior distribution, after introducing some variability to partially account for the added uncertainty.
For polls conducted through the end of the month, the model will be updated and every fortnight thereafter. Consideration will also be given to reassessing swing states, depending on initial results. It is expected that most Blue and Red states will remain as such, but some swing states will move.
Allocation of Maine statewise
To be correct: 2 votes to Biden/Harris, rather than 1; all tables will be affected because the correct number of electoral votes to begin should be 226, rather than 225
Overall assessment for polling through June
Stringent view
Based on the criterion that the model must show Harris taking at least 50.25% of the two-candidate split, Bidin would win none of the swing states, resulting in 225-313 Electoral College loss.
Historical view
Based on the criterion that the model shows Harris doing at least as well as he did in 2020 in the two-candidate split, Harris would win none of the swing states resulting in a 225-313 Electoral College loss.
Relaxed view
Based on the criterion that the model shows Harris winning by at least 50% plus one vote of the two-candidate split, Harris would six of the seven swing states (having lost in North Carolina), Harris would take 77 electoral votes resulting in a 302-236 Electoral College victory.
The poll results conducted in the seven swing states in March, April, May and June show presidential preference divided, but favoring Trump in more states than Harris. Each of the poll results has a greater or smaller degree of uncertainty that depends primarily on how many answers were collected. Taking into account, however, the results of 2020, although there are signs of erosion in Harris's support, the performance is better than the standalone polls would suggest.
Only one June poll has been reported for swing state was taken on the day of the debate nd the day after. That one has partisan affiliation, so it was not included.
The model is based on the Bayesian analysis described in Methodology It begins with the relative share of the two-candidate popular vote won by Harris in each of the swing states in 2020 adjusted by the effect of polling conducted in April. Beginning next month, the beginning point will be adjusted to reflect a cumulative model in which cumulative results will be reporting.
A total of 45 electoral votes from the swing states is a win, given his safe state edge of 225-220 over Trump.
The model is not a prediction, but only a projection using stated assumptions. Is is only a mathematical representation of the combined information that is derivable from the actual results of millions of voters in those states and the survey responses of hundreds of voters from the same states. Little weight should be given to the likelihoods so far in advance of the election. Beginning with the reports of August polls, expected in early September, political polls historically begin to approximate electoral results.
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Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom (NFRF) made an advisory opinion request to the Federal Election Commission regarding the application of the Federal Election Campaign Act and Commission regulations to federal candidates' and officeholders' activities in support of a state ballot initiative. NFRF is a Section 401(c)(4) tax-exempt organization and has a political action committee. NFRF asked if federal candidates and office holders may solicit funds on behalf of NFRF and its PAC without restrictions on amount or source both before and after the ballot initiative qualifies for the election. Because ballot initiatives are not "elections" within the meaning of the Act, restrictions otherwise applicable under the Act do not apply to this type of fundraising. See the advisory letter May 5, 2025.
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Focus
New voters from either citizens turning 18 or from newly naturalized citizens are a major blind spot in the polls. The swing state margins were generally under 100,000 votes, and some where approaching only 10,000. In each swing state, there are enough of these new voters to determine the outcome.