Latest

Overall assessment for polling through October 15, 2024

Harris is likely to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and perhaps Nevada. This would result in a 270-238 win, assuming no changes from the 2020 election in other states and electoral districts. This is unchanged from a month ago, except in North Carolina where there was a marked improvement but not enough to move her out of a weak position.

The number of "likely voter" polls increased substantially in the second half of September. As a result, the model was revised to excluded "registered voter" surveys and to include all likely voter polls from August to late September. As before, the beginning assumptions include a close contest in the range of Harris taking between 48% and 52% of vote in each swing state. This is a "strong" prior and pronounced polling results will be required to move the credible interval outside that range. The model is based on the Bayesian analysis described in Methodology.