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Overall assessment

Stringent view

Based on the criterion that the model must show Biden taking at least 50.25% of the two-candidate split, Bidin would win none of the swing states, resulting in 225-313 Electoral College loss.

Historical view

Based on the criterion that the model shows Biden doing at least as well as he did in 2020 in the two-candidate split, Biden would win none of the swing states resulting in a 225-313 Electoral College loss.

Relaxed view

Based on the criterion that the model shows Biden winning by at least 50% plus one vote of the two-candidate split, Biden would six of the seven swing states (having lost in North Carolina), Biden would take 77 electoral votes resulting in a 302-236 Electoral College victory.

The poll results conducted in the seven swing states in March, April and May show presidential preference divided, but favoring Trump in more states than Biden. Each of the poll results has a greater or smaller degree of uncertainty that depends primarily on how many answers were collected. Taking into account, however, the results of 2020, although there are signs of erosion in Biden's support, the performance is better than the standalone polls would suggest.

The model is based on the Bayesian analysis described in Methodology It begins with the relative share of the two-candidate popular vote won by Biden in each of the swing states in 2020 adjusted by the effect of polling conducted in April. Beginning next month, the beginning point will be adjusted to reflect a cumulative model in which cumulative results will be reporting.

A total of 45 electoral votes from the swing states is a win, given his safe state edge of 225-220 over Trump.

The model is not a prediction, but only a projection using stated assumptions. Is is only a mathematical representation of the combined information that is derivable from the actual results of millions of voters in those states and the survey responses of hundreds of voters from the same states. Little weight should be given to the likelihoods so far in advance of the election. Beginning with the reports of August polls, expected in early September, political polls historically begin to approximate electoral results.

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National

Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom (NFRF) made an advisory opinion request to the Federal Election Commission regarding the application of the Federal Election Campaign Act and Commission regulations to federal candidates' and officeholders' activities in support of a state ballot initiative. NFRF is a Section 401(c)(4) tax-exempt organization and has a political action committee. NFRF asked if federal candidates and office holders may solicit funds on behalf of NFRF and its PAC without restrictions on amount or source both before and after the ballot initiative qualifies for the election. Because ballot initiatives are not "elections" within the meaning of the Act, restrictions otherwise applicable under the Act do not apply to this type of fundraising. See the advisory letter May 5, 2025.

See also

Focus

New voters from either citizens turning 18 or from newly naturalized citizens are a major blind spot in the polls. The swing state margins were generally under 100,000 votes, and some where approaching only 10,000. In each swing state, there are enough of these new voters to determine the outcome.

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: June 19, 2024.