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The number of "likely voter" polls increased substantially in the second half of September. As a result, the model has beens revised to excluded "registered voter" surveys and to include all likely voter polls from August to late September. As before, the beginning assumptions include a close contest in the range of Harris taking between 48% and 52% of vote in each swing state. This is a "strong" prior and pronounced polling results will be required to move the credible interval outside that range. The model is based on the Bayesian analysis described in Methodology.

Overall assessment for polling through September 30, 2024

Harris is likely to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and perhaps Nevada. his would result in a 270-239 win, assuming no changes from the 2020 election in other states and electoral districts.