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This is the third round of surveys since President Biden withdrew and reflects the following:
The state of the model at July 22, 2024 (the date President Biden) announced his withdrawal was taken as a starting point. This model reflects the following
The results of the 2020 election (in terms of the percentage won by Biden in the two-candidate tabulation)
The addition of some random variation to account for the passage of time
Adjustments based on surveys conducted March-June, 2024 and the July surveys before Biden withdrew
Into that model more random variation was introduced
The model was updated based on
August surveys conducted before the Democratic convention
August surveys conducted after the Democratic convention
Overall assessment for polling through August
Stringent view
Based on the criterion that the model must show Harris taking at least 50.25% of the two-candidate split, Harris would win none of the swing states, resulting in 226-312 Electoral College loss.
Historical view
Based on the criterion that the model shows Harris doing at least as well as Biden did in 2020 in the two-candidate split, Harris would win none of the swing states resulting in a 226-312 Electoral College loss.
Relaxed view
Based on the criterion that the model shows Harris winning by at least 50% plus one vote of the two-candidate split, Harris would six of the seven swing states (having lost in North Carolina), taking 77 electoral votes resulting in a 303-235 Electoral College victory.
The poll results conducted in the seven swing states in March, April, May, June and July (before Biden withdrew) showed presidential preference divided, but favoring Trump in more states than Biden. After Biden withdrew, polling showed Harris generally holding steady in polling through the end of July. In the August pre-convention polls, Harris's nuimbers improved. Each of the poll results has a greater or smaller degree of uncertainty that depends primarily on how many responses were collected. Taking into account, however, the results of 2020, although there were signs of erosion in Biden's support, the performance is better than the standalone polls would suggest. The choice of model is intended to dampen volatility. To date, the results are consistent with an eroding margin in the swing states won by the Democrats in 2020. North Carolina has been static. Although there is a slight model improvement through the end of August, the losing margin in North Carolina has not improved. In the other six swing states, the improvements in polling do not yet reflect the improvements in polling. This is expected. The model describes a close race, possibly closer than 2020.
The model is based on the Bayesian analysis described in Methodology It begins with the relative share of the two-candidate popular vote won by Biden in each of the swing states in 2020 adjusted by the effect of polling conducted to date.
A total of 44 electoral votes from the swing states is a win, given her safe state edge of 226-219 over Trump.
The model is not a prediction, but only a projection using stated assumptions. Is is only a mathematical representation of the combined information that is derivable from the actual results of millions of voters in those states and the survey responses of hundreds of voters from the same states. Little weight should be given to the likelihoods so far in advance of the election. Beginning with the reports of August polls, expected in early September, political polls historically begin to approximate electoral results.
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National
Robert F. Kennedy suspended his campaign and is in the process of withdrawing his name from the ballot in states in which he had qualified.
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Focus
New voters from either citizens turning 18 or from newly naturalized citizens are a major blind spot in the polls. The swing state margins were generally under 100,000 votes, and some where approaching only 10,000. In each swing state, there are enough of these new voters to determine the outcome.