Georgia
In the 2020 election President Harris won 50.12% (0.5012) of the votes cast for Harris or Trump in Georgia. This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 50.08% to 50.16%. Next, the results of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis.
Assessments are based on three criteria.
Stringent—Harris wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than his 2020 margin.
Historical—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.
Relaxed—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.
June assessment
Harris win under the Relaxed criterion.
| median | mean | mode | q025 | q975 | mcse | rhat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.501 | 0.501 | 0.5011 | 0.5006 | 0.5015 | 0.0 | 1.0005 |
May assessment
Harris win under the Relaxed criterion.
| median | mean | mode | q025 | q975 | mcse | rhat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5011 | 0.5011 | 0.5011 | 0.5006 | 0.5015 | 0.0 | 1.0007 |
April assessment
Harris win under the Relaxed criterion.
| median | mean | mode | q025 | q975 | mcse | rhat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5012 | 0.5012 | 0.5011 | 0.5007 | 0.5016 | 0.0 | 1.0007 |
March assessment
Harris win under the Relaxed criterion.
| median | mean | mode | q025 | q975 | mcse | rhat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5011 | 0.5011 | 0.5011 | 0.5007 | 0.5016 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
2020 election
| median | mean | mode | q025 | q975 | mcse | rhat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5011 | 0.5011 | 0.501 | 0.5007 | 0.5016 | 0.0 | 1.0005 |
Scenarios
The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Georgia. Georgia is represented in 64 of the 128 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris.
Harris wins
| States won by Harris | Electoral Votes | Harris Votes | Trump Votes | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI, GA and PA | 45 | 270 | 268 | Harris |
| AZ, GA and PA | 46 | 271 | 267 | Harris |
| NV, WI, GA and MI | 47 | 272 | 266 | Harris |
| GA, MI and NC | 47 | 272 | 266 | Harris |
| NV, WI, GA and NC | 48 | 273 | 265 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, GA and MI | 48 | 273 | 265 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, GA and NC | 49 | 274 | 264 | Harris |
| GA, MI and PA | 50 | 275 | 263 | Harris |
| NV, WI, GA and PA | 51 | 276 | 262 | Harris |
| GA, PA and NC | 51 | 276 | 262 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, GA and PA | 52 | 277 | 261 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, GA and MI | 52 | 277 | 261 | Harris |
| NV, GA, MI and NC | 53 | 278 | 260 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, GA and NC | 53 | 278 | 260 | Harris |
| NV, GA, MI and PA | 56 | 281 | 257 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, GA and PA | 56 | 281 | 257 | Harris |
| NV, GA, PA and NC | 57 | 282 | 256 | Harris |
| WI, GA, MI and NC | 57 | 282 | 256 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI | 58 | 283 | 255 | Harris |
| AZ, GA, MI and NC | 58 | 283 | 255 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC | 59 | 284 | 254 | Harris |
| WI, GA, MI and PA | 60 | 285 | 253 | Harris |
| WI, GA, PA and NC | 61 | 286 | 252 | Harris |
| AZ, GA, MI and PA | 61 | 286 | 252 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA | 62 | 287 | 251 | Harris |
| AZ, GA, PA and NC | 62 | 287 | 251 | Harris |
| NV, WI, GA, MI and NC | 63 | 288 | 250 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC | 64 | 289 | 249 | Harris |
| NV, WI, GA, MI and PA | 66 | 291 | 247 | Harris |
| GA, MI, PA and NC | 66 | 291 | 247 | Harris |
| NV, WI, GA, PA and NC | 67 | 292 | 246 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA | 67 | 292 | 246 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC | 68 | 293 | 245 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC | 68 | 293 | 245 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA | 71 | 296 | 242 | Harris |
| NV, GA, MI, PA and NC | 72 | 297 | 241 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC | 72 | 297 | 241 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC | 74 | 299 | 239 | Harris |
| WI, GA, MI, PA and NC | 76 | 301 | 237 | Harris |
| AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC | 77 | 302 | 236 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA | 77 | 302 | 236 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC | 78 | 303 | 235 | Harris |
| NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC | 82 | 307 | 231 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC | 83 | 308 | 230 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC | 87 | 312 | 226 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC | 93 | 318 | 220 | Harris |
Trump wins
| States won by Harris | Electoral Votes | Harris Votes | Trump Votes | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA | 16 | 241 | 297 | Trump |
| NV and GA | 22 | 247 | 291 | Trump |
| WI and GA | 26 | 251 | 287 | Trump |
| AZ and GA | 27 | 252 | 286 | Trump |
| GA and MI | 31 | 256 | 282 | Trump |
| GA and NC | 32 | 257 | 281 | Trump |
| NV, WI and GA | 32 | 257 | 281 | Trump |
| NV, AZ and GA | 33 | 258 | 280 | Trump |
| GA and PA | 35 | 260 | 278 | Trump |
| NV, GA and MI | 37 | 262 | 276 | Trump |
| WI, AZ and GA | 37 | 262 | 276 | Trump |
| NV, GA and NC | 38 | 263 | 275 | Trump |
| NV, GA and PA | 41 | 266 | 272 | Trump |
| WI, GA and MI | 41 | 266 | 272 | Trump |
| WI, GA and NC | 42 | 267 | 271 | Trump |
| AZ, GA and MI | 42 | 267 | 271 | Trump |
| NV, WI, AZ and GA | 43 | 268 | 270 | Trump |
| AZ, GA and NC | 43 | 268 | 270 | Trump |
Harris wins without Georgia
| States won by Harris | Electoral Votes | Harris Votes | Trump Votes | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI, PA and NC | 45 | 270 | 268 | Harris |
| AZ, MI and PA | 45 | 270 | 268 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ and PA | 46 | 271 | 267 | Harris |
| AZ, PA and NC | 46 | 271 | 267 | Harris |
| NV, WI, MI and NC | 47 | 272 | 266 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, MI and NC | 48 | 273 | 265 | Harris |
| NV, WI, MI and PA | 50 | 275 | 263 | Harris |
| MI, PA and NC | 50 | 275 | 263 | Harris |
| NV, WI, PA and NC | 51 | 276 | 262 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, MI and PA | 51 | 276 | 262 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, PA and NC | 52 | 277 | 261 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, MI and NC | 52 | 277 | 261 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, MI and PA | 55 | 280 | 258 | Harris |
| NV, MI, PA and NC | 56 | 281 | 257 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, PA and NC | 56 | 281 | 257 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC | 58 | 283 | 255 | Harris |
| WI, MI, PA and NC | 60 | 285 | 253 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA | 61 | 286 | 252 | Harris |
| AZ, MI, PA and NC | 61 | 286 | 252 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC | 62 | 287 | 251 | Harris |
| NV, WI, MI, PA and NC | 66 | 291 | 247 | Harris |
| NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC | 67 | 292 | 246 | Harris |
| WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC | 71 | 296 | 242 | Harris |
| NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC | 77 | 302 | 236 | Harris |
Georgia facts
Electoral votes: 16
2020: Harris
2016: Trump
2020 turnout: 4,935,487
2020 margin: 11,779
2022 turnout (governor): 3,925,245
Governor: Brian Kemp (R)
Senator up for election: Neither
Senate: D (2)
House: R (9) R (5)
State House: R (102) D (78)
State House 2024 election: All seats
State Senate: R (33) D (23)
State Senate 2024 election: All seats
Secretary of State: Brad Raffensperger
Polls close: 7 pm Eastern
Mail-in voting: Yes
Early in-person voting: Yes
Georgia demographics
| Label (GROUPING) | GA |
|---|---|
| TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED | |
| Total population | 10,912,876 |
| One race | 91.7% |
| Two races | 7.7% |
| Three races | 0.5% |
| Four or more races | 0.1% |
| SEX AND AGE | |
| Total population | 10,912,876 |
| Male | 48.8% |
| Female | 51.2% |
| Under 5 years | 5.7% |
| 5 to 17 years | 17.3% |
| 18 to 24 years | 9.8% |
| 25 to 34 years | 13.6% |
| 35 to 44 years | 13.5% |
| 45 to 54 years | 12.8% |
| 55 to 64 years | 12.2% |
| 65 to 74 years | 9.2% |
| 75 years and over | 5.9% |
| Median age (years) | 37.6 |
| 18 years and over | 77.0% |
| 21 years and over | 72.8% |
| 62 years and over | 18.6% |
| 65 years and over | 15.1% |
| Under 18 years | 2,505,668 |
| Male | 51.2% |
| Female | 48.8% |
| 18 years and over | 8,407,208 |
| Male | 48.1% |
| Female | 51.9% |
| 18 to 34 years | 2,558,225 |
| Male | 50.0% |
| Female | 50.0% |
| 35 to 64 years | 4,204,708 |
| Male | 48.6% |
| Female | 51.4% |
| 65 years and over | 1,644,275 |
| Male | 43.8% |
| Female | 56.2% |
| RELATIONSHIP | |
| Population in households | 10,662,548 |
| Householder or spouse | 56.4% |
| Unmarried partner | 2.3% |
| Child | 30.0% |
| Other relatives | 8.3% |
| Other nonrelatives | 3.0% |
| HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE | |
| Households | 4,092,467 |
| Family households | 66.8% |
| With own children of the householder under 18 years | 27.8% |
| Married-couple family | 46.9% |
| With own children of the householder under 18 years | 18.1% |
| Female householder, no spouse present, family | 15.0% |
| With own children of the householder under 18 years | 7.6% |
| Nonfamily households | 33.2% |
| Male householder | 15.1% |
| Living alone | 11.6% |
| Not living alone | 3.5% |
| Female householder | 18.1% |
| Living alone | 15.4% |
| Not living alone | 2.6% |
| Average household size | 2.61 |
| Average family size | 3.19 |
| MARITAL STATUS | |
| Population 15 years and over | 8,867,492 |
| Now married, except separated | 46.9% |
| Widowed | 5.4% |
| Divorced | 11.1% |
| Separated | 1.8% |
| Never married | 34.8% |
| Male 15 years and over | 4,277,823 |
| Now married, except separated | 49.5% |
| Widowed | 2.5% |
| Divorced | 9.3% |
| Separated | 1.5% |
| Never married | 37.3% |
| Female 15 years and over | 4,589,669 |
| Now married, except separated | 44.6% |
| Widowed | 8.0% |
| Divorced | 12.7% |
| Separated | 2.2% |
| Never married | 32.4% |
| SCHOOL ENROLLMENT | |
| Population 3 years and over enrolled in school | 2,772,163 |
| Nursery school, preschool | 5.8% |
| Kindergarten | 4.9% |
| Elementary school (grades 1-8) | 41.0% |
| High school (grades 9-12) | 22.7% |
| College or graduate school | 25.7% |
| Male 3 years and over enrolled in school | 1,358,342 |
| Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 | 71.9% |
| Percent enrolled in college or graduate school | 22.1% |
| Female 3 years and over enrolled in school | 1,413,821 |
| Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 | 65.2% |
| Percent enrolled in college or graduate school | 29.2% |
| EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT | |
| Population 25 years and over | 7,332,980 |
| Less than high school diploma | 10.5% |
| High school graduate (includes equivalency) | 27.0% |
| Some college or associate's degree | 27.8% |
| Bachelor's degree | 20.7% |
| Graduate or professional degree | 14.0% |
| High school graduate or higher | 89.5% |
| Male, high school graduate or higher | 88.6% |
| Female, high school graduate or higher | 90.4% |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 34.7% |
| Male, bachelor's degree or higher | 33.3% |
| Female, bachelor's degree or higher | 35.9% |
| FERTILITY | |
| Women 15 to 50 years | 2,675,339 |
| Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months | 151,128 |
| Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months | 54,424 |
| As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months | 36.0% |
| RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS | |
| Population 30 years and over | 6,602,024 |
| Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) | 3.8% |
| Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren | 37.0% |
| VETERAN STATUS | |
| Civilian population 18 years and over | 8,347,433 |
| Civilian veteran | 7.3% |
| DISABILITY STATUS | |
| Total civilian noninstitutionalized population | 10,718,050 |
| With a disability | 13.3% |
| Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years | 2,503,322 |
| With a disability | 5.3% |
| Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years | 6,607,703 |
| With a disability | 11.2% |
| Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older | 1,607,025 |
| With a disability | 34.7% |
| RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO | |
| Population 1 year and over | 10,791,161 |
| Same house | 86.6% |
| Different house in the U.S. | 12.8% |
| Same county | 5.2% |
| Different county | 7.6% |
| Same state | 4.6% |
| Different state | 3.0% |
| Abroad | 0.6% |
| PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY | |
| Native | 9,744,854 |
| Male | 48.6% |
| Female | 51.4% |
| Foreign born | 1,168,022 |
| Male | 49.9% |
| Female | 50.1% |
| Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen | 589,710 |
| Male | 47.7% |
| Female | 52.3% |
| Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen | 578,312 |
| Male | 52.2% |
| Female | 47.8% |
| Population born outside the United States | 1,168,022 |
| Entered 2010 or later | 34.3% |
| Entered 2000 to 2009 | 26.7% |
| Entered before 2000 | 39.0% |
| WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN | |
| Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea | 1,168,022 |
| Europe | 7.6% |
| Asia | 30.5% |
| Africa | 11.7% |
| Oceania | 0.4% |
| Latin America | 48.4% |
| Northern America | 1.5% |
| LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH | |
| Population 5 years and over | 10,291,750 |
| English only | 85.1% |
| Language other than English | 14.9% |
| Speak English less than "very well" | 5.5% |
| EMPLOYMENT STATUS | |
| Population 16 years and over | 8,708,310 |
| In labor force | 63.9% |
| Civilian labor force | 63.2% |
| Employed | 60.6% |
| Unemployed | 2.6% |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.2% |
| Armed Forces | 0.7% |
| Not in labor force | 36.1% |
| Females 16 years and over | 4,509,831 |
| In labor force | 59.4% |
| Civilian labor force | 59.2% |
| Employed | 56.5% |
| Unemployed | 2.7% |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.5% |
| COMMUTING TO WORK | |
| Workers 16 years and over | 5,214,843 |
| Car, truck, or van - drove alone | 70.5% |
| Car, truck, or van - carpooled | 9.0% |
| Public transportation (excluding taxicab) | 1.1% |
| Walked | 1.3% |
| Other means | 1.8% |
| Worked from home | 16.3% |
| Mean travel time to work (minutes) | 28.2 |
| OCCUPATION | |
| Civilian employed population 16 years and over | 5,273,176 |
| Management, business, science, and arts occupations | 41.4% |
| Service occupations | 14.6% |
| Sales and office occupations | 20.9% |
| Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations | 8.1% |
| Production, transportation, and material moving occupations | 15.1% |
| Male civilian employed population 16 years and over | 2,723,387 |
| Management, business, science, and arts occupations | 36.9% |
| Service occupations | 12.4% |
| Sales and office occupations | 14.5% |
| Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations | 14.8% |
| Production, transportation, and material moving occupations | 21.4% |
| Female civilian employed population 16 years and over | 2,549,789 |
| Management, business, science, and arts occupations | 46.2% |
| Service occupations | 16.9% |
| Sales and office occupations | 27.7% |
| Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations | 0.8% |
| Production, transportation, and material moving occupations | 8.4% |
| INDUSTRY | |
| Civilian employed population 16 years and over | 5,273,176 |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining | 0.9% |
| Construction | 6.8% |
| Manufacturing | 10.4% |
| Wholesale trade | 2.4% |
| Retail trade | 11.4% |
| Transportation and warehousing, and utilities | 7.6% |
| Information | 2.3% |
| Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing | 6.4% |
| Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services | 13.3% |
| Educational services, and health care and social assistance | 20.5% |
| Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services | 8.4% |
| Other services (except public administration) | 4.8% |
| Public administration | 4.8% |
| CLASS OF WORKER | |
| Civilian employed population 16 years and over | 5,273,176 |
| Private wage and salary workers | 80.0% |
| Government workers | 14.2% |
| Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business | 5.7% |
| Unpaid family workers | 0.2% |
| INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) | |
| Households | 4,092,467 |
| Median household income (dollars) | 72,837 |
| With earnings | 79.5% |
| Mean earnings (dollars) | 101,642 |
| With Social Security income | 29.3% |
| Mean Social Security income (dollars) | 21,670 |
| With Supplemental Security Income | 5.1% |
| Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) | 10,304 |
| With cash public assistance income | 1.7% |
| Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) | 3,549 |
| With retirement income | 22.8% |
| Mean retirement income (dollars) | 29,625 |
| With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits | 13.2% |
| Families | 2,733,234 |
| Median family income (dollars) | 86,642 |
| Married-couple family | 70.2% |
| Median income (dollars) | 105,880 |
| Male householder, no spouse present, family | 7.3% |
| Median income (dollars) | 63,120 |
| Female householder, no husband present, family | 22.5% |
| Median income (dollars) | 47,661 |
| Individuals | 10,912,876 |
| Per capita income (dollars) | 38,378 |
| With earnings for full-time, year-round workers: | |
| Male | 2,196,252 |
| Female | 1,800,677 |
| Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers: | |
| Male | 83,251 |
| Female | 62,404 |
| Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers: | |
| Male | 58,853 |
| Female | 48,397 |
| HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE | |
| Civilian noninstitutionalized population | 10,718,050 |
| With private health insurance | 66.6% |
| With public coverage | 33.0% |
| No health insurance coverage | 11.7% |
| POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED | |
| All families | 9.4% |
| With related children of the householder under 18 years | 13.9% |
| With related children of the householder under 5 years only | 12.0% |
| Married-couple family | 4.6% |
| With related children of the householder under 18 years | 5.6% |
| With related children of the householder under 5 years only | 3.2% |
| Female householder, no spouse present, family | 23.2% |
| With related children of the householder under 18 years | 30.6% |
| With related children of the householder under 5 years only | 31.1% |
| All people | 12.7% |
| Under 18 years | 16.6% |
| Related children of the householder under 18 years | 16.3% |
| Related children of the householder under 5 years | 18.0% |
| Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years | 15.8% |
| 18 years and over | 11.5% |
| 18 to 64 years | 11.6% |
| 65 years and over | 11.1% |
| People in families | 10.1% |
| Unrelated individuals 15 years and over | 24.4% |
| HOUSING TENURE | |
| Occupied housing units | 4,092,467 |
| Owner-occupied housing units | 65.9% |
| Renter-occupied housing units | 34.1% |
| Average household size of owner-occupied unit | 2.71 |
| Average household size of renter-occupied unit | 2.41 |
| UNITS IN STRUCTURE | |
| Occupied housing units | 4,092,467 |
| 1-unit, detached or attached | 72.4% |
| 2 to 4 units | 5.2% |
| 5 or more units | 14.9% |
| Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. | 7.5% |
| YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT | |
| Occupied housing units | 4,092,467 |
| Built 2020 or later | 2.6% |
| Built 2010 to 2019 | 13.0% |
| Built 2000 to 2009 | 21.5% |
| Built 1980 to 1999 | 33.1% |
| Built 1960 to 1979 | 18.9% |
| Built 1940 to 1959 | 7.4% |
| Built 1939 or earlier | 3.5% |
| VEHICLES AVAILABLE | |
| Occupied housing units | 4,092,467 |
| None | 5.7% |
| 1 or more | 94.3% |
| HOUSE HEATING FUEL | |
| Occupied housing units | 4,092,467 |
| Gas | 41.7% |
| Electricity | 56.7% |
| All other fuels | 0.8% |
| No fuel used | 0.8% |
| SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS | |
| Occupied housing units | 4,092,467 |
| No telephone service available | 0.7% |
| 1.01 or more occupants per room | 2.4% |
| SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS | |
| Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) | 1,705,941 |
| Less than 30 percent | 75.0% |
| 30 percent or more | 25.0% |
| OWNER CHARACTERISTICS | |
| Owner-occupied housing units | 2,695,885 |
| Median value (dollars) | 297,400 |
| Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) | 1,599 |
| Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) | 488 |
| GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS | |
| Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) | 1,284,614 |
| Less than 30 percent | 48.2% |
| 30 percent or more | 51.8% |
| GROSS RENT | |
| Occupied units paying rent | 1,320,725 |
| Median gross rent (dollars) | 1,269 |
| COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE | |
| Total households | 4,092,467 |
| With a computer | 96.2% |
| With a broadband Internet subscription | 91.2% |
Terms
Median: Half of the random samples have probabilities greater than and half less than the median.
Mean: The average of the 10,000 random samples constructed. It coincides with the Harris Proportion in the table above.
Mode: The probability that occurs most often.
q025: The value below which 2.5% of the probabilities occur.
q975: The value below which 97.5% of the probabilities occur.
MCSE: Measures the precision of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates by quantifying the variability due to finite sampling. Smaller values indicate better precision. Values close to zero indicate that little of the variability in the estimate arises from using MCMC.
Rhat: Assesses the convergence of MCMC chains by comparing within-chain and between-chain variances. Values close to 1 indicate convergence.
These diagnostics are used to assess usefulness of models using MCMC methods in determining whether the MCMC chains have run long enough to provide accurate and stable estimates of the posterior distributions.
The density plots show the number of observations on the \(y\)-axis and the probabilities on the \(x\)-axis. The shaded area in the center shows the credible interval within which 95% of the probabilities fall. The unshaded areas show that the proportion of the votes are likely to be either less than or greater than the credible interval.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
Runoff rules
In the 2020 United States presidential election, Georgia initially reported its results on November 4th, 2020, the day after Election Day. However, due to the very close margin between Joe Harris and Donald Trump, Georgia conducted a statewide hand recount of all ballots.
The hand recount began on November 13th and concluded on November 19th, 2020. The recount affirmed Harris's win in the state.
However, the Trump campaign requested another machine recount, which was conducted from November 24th to December 2nd, 2020. This second recount also confirmed Harris's victory.
Georgia officially certified its election results on November 20th, 2020, after the hand recount. The results were then re-certified on December 7th, 2020, following the machine recount.
So in total, it took about a month from Election Day for Georgia to finalize its presidential election results through the initial count, hand recount, machine recount, and two certifications, with the final certification occurring on December 7th, 2020. The same procedures are in place today.
Georgia Code § 21-2-495 (2022) provides for a recount in an election.
Whenever the difference between the number of votes received by a candidate who has been declared … elected to an office in an election … and the number of votes received by any other candidate … not declared so … elected or … shall be not more than one-half of 1 percent of the total votes which were cast for such office therein, any such candidate … receiving a sufficient number of votes so that the difference between his or her vote and that of a candidate declared … elected … is not more than one-half of 1 percent of the total votes cast, within a period of two business days following the certification of the election results, shall have the right to a recount of the votes cast, if such request is made in writing by the losing candidate. If the office sought is a federal or state office voted upon by the electors of more than one county, the request shall be made to the Secretary of State who shall direct that the recount be performed in all counties in which electors voted for such office and notify the superintendents of the several counties involved of the request.
The 0.5% (0.005) threshhold applies to the total number of votes cast for the position, rather than only the votes received by the two top candidates. In the 2020 election, the total number of votes cast for president was 4,999,960, while the votes for Harris and Trump numbered 4,935,487 and the 0.5% recount threshold was, accordingly 24,951 votes vs 24,678, a difference of only 273 votes. In the 2020 election, the difference between Harris and Trump was 11,779 votes, well within either measure.
Other News
Over the past three years, about 140,000 registered voters moved to Georgia, according to the analysis. When accounting for Georgia voters who moved away, the state had a net gain of about 30,000 voters. Roughly two out of every three of these new voters are likely Democrats, accounting for about 19,500 voters. About 6,000 of the new voters are likely Republican voters, while the remainder were not registered with a political party in their prior state or belonged to third parties.
Terms
Median: Half of the random samples have probabilities greater than and half less than the median.
Mean: The average of the 10,000 random samples constructed. It coincides with the Harris Proportion in the table above.
Mode: The probability that occurs most often.
q025: The value below which 2.5% of the probabilities occur.
q975: The value below which 97.5% of the probabilities occur.
MCSE: Measures the precision of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates by quantifying the variability due to finite sampling. Smaller values indicate better precision. Values close to zero indicate that little of the variability in the estimate arises from using MCMC.
Rhat: Assesses the convergence of MCMC chains by comparing within-chain and between-chain variances. Values close to 1 indicate convergence.
These diagnostics are used to assess usefulness of models using MCMC methods in determining whether the MCMC chains have run long enough to provide accurate and stable estimates of the posterior distributions.
The density plots show the number of observations on the \(y\)-axis and the probabilities on the \(x\)-axis. The shaded area in the center shows the credible interval within which 95% of the probabilities fall. The unshaded areas show that the proportion of the votes are likely to be either less than or greater than the credible interval.