Georgia

In the 2020 election President Biden won 50.12% (0.5012) of the votes cast for Biden or Trump in Georgia. This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 50.08% to 50.16%. Next, the results of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis.

Assessments are based on three criteria.

  • Stringent—Biden wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than his 2020 margin.

  • Historical—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.

  • Relaxed—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.

May assessment

Biden win under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5011 0.5011 0.5011 0.5006 0.5015 0.0 1.0007

April assessment

Biden win under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5012 0.5012 0.5011 0.5007 0.5016 0.0 1.0007

March assessment

Biden win under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5011 0.5011 0.5011 0.5007 0.5016 0.0 1.0

2020 election

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5011 0.5011 0.501 0.5007 0.5016 0.0 1.0005

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Georgia. Georgia is represented in 64 of the 128 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Biden.

Biden wins

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
WI, GA and PA 45 270 268 Biden
AZ, GA and PA 46 271 267 Biden
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 272 266 Biden
GA, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
NV, WI, GA and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and NC 49 274 264 Biden
GA, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
NV, WI, GA and PA 51 276 262 Biden
GA, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and PA 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 277 261 Biden
NV, GA, MI and NC 53 278 260 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and NC 53 278 260 Biden
NV, GA, MI and PA 56 281 257 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and PA 56 281 257 Biden
NV, GA, PA and NC 57 282 256 Biden
WI, GA, MI and NC 57 282 256 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 283 255 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC 59 284 254 Biden
WI, GA, MI and PA 60 285 253 Biden
WI, GA, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA 62 287 251 Biden
AZ, GA, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC 63 288 250 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC 64 289 249 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA 66 291 247 Biden
GA, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC 68 293 245 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 68 293 245 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 71 296 242 Biden
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 74 299 239 Biden
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 76 301 237 Biden
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 78 303 235 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 82 307 231 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 83 308 230 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 87 312 226 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 93 318 220 Biden

Trump wins

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
GA 16 241 297 Trump
NV and GA 22 247 291 Trump
WI and GA 26 251 287 Trump
AZ and GA 27 252 286 Trump
GA and MI 31 256 282 Trump
GA and NC 32 257 281 Trump
NV, WI and GA 32 257 281 Trump
NV, AZ and GA 33 258 280 Trump
GA and PA 35 260 278 Trump
NV, GA and MI 37 262 276 Trump
WI, AZ and GA 37 262 276 Trump
NV, GA and NC 38 263 275 Trump
NV, GA and PA 41 266 272 Trump
WI, GA and MI 41 266 272 Trump
WI, GA and NC 42 267 271 Trump
AZ, GA and MI 42 267 271 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and GA 43 268 270 Trump
AZ, GA and NC 43 268 270 Trump

Biden wins without Georgia

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
WI, PA and NC 45 270 268 Biden
AZ, MI and PA 45 270 268 Biden
NV, WI, AZ and PA 46 271 267 Biden
AZ, PA and NC 46 271 267 Biden
NV, WI, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, WI, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
MI, PA and NC 50 275 263 Biden
NV, WI, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and PA 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, PA and NC 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and NC 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and PA 55 280 258 Biden
NV, MI, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
WI, AZ, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
WI, MI, PA and NC 60 285 253 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, MI, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 71 296 242 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden

Georgia facts

  • Electoral votes: 16

  • 2020: Biden

  • 2016: Trump

  • 2020 turnout: 4,935,487

  • 2020 margin: 11,779

  • 2022 turnout (governor): 3,925,245

  • Governor: Brian Kemp (R)

  • Senator up for election: Neither

  • Senate: D (2)

  • House: R (9) R (5)

  • State House: R (102) D (78)

  • State House 2024 election: All seats

  • State Senate: R (33) D (23)

  • State Senate 2024 election: All seats

  • Secretary of State: Brad Raffensperger

  • SoS website

  • Polls close: 7 pm Eastern

  • Mail-in voting: Yes

  • Early in-person voting: Yes

Georgia demographics

Label (GROUPING) GA
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
    Total population 10,912,876
        One race 91.7%
        Two races 7.7%
        Three races 0.5%
        Four or more races 0.1%
SEX AND AGE
    Total population 10,912,876
        Male 48.8%
        Female 51.2%
Under 5 years 5.7%
5 to 17 years 17.3%
18 to 24 years 9.8%
25 to 34 years 13.6%
35 to 44 years 13.5%
45 to 54 years 12.8%
55 to 64 years 12.2%
65 to 74 years 9.2%
75 years and over 5.9%
        Median age (years) 37.6
18 years and over 77.0%
21 years and over 72.8%
62 years and over 18.6%
65 years and over 15.1%
Under 18 years 2,505,668
            Male 51.2%
            Female 48.8%
18 years and over 8,407,208
            Male 48.1%
            Female 51.9%
18 to 34 years 2,558,225
            Male 50.0%
            Female 50.0%
35 to 64 years 4,204,708
            Male 48.6%
            Female 51.4%
65 years and over 1,644,275
            Male 43.8%
            Female 56.2%
RELATIONSHIP
    Population in households 10,662,548
        Householder or spouse 56.4%
        Unmarried partner 2.3%
        Child 30.0%
        Other relatives 8.3%
        Other nonrelatives 3.0%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
    Households 4,092,467
        Family households 66.8%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 27.8%
        Married-couple family 46.9%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 18.1%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 15.0%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 7.6%
        Nonfamily households 33.2%
            Male householder 15.1%
                Living alone 11.6%
                Not living alone 3.5%
            Female householder 18.1%
                Living alone 15.4%
                Not living alone 2.6%
        Average household size 2.61
        Average family size 3.19
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over 8,867,492
        Now married, except separated 46.9%
        Widowed 5.4%
        Divorced 11.1%
        Separated 1.8%
        Never married 34.8%
Male 15 years and over 4,277,823
        Now married, except separated 49.5%
        Widowed 2.5%
        Divorced 9.3%
        Separated 1.5%
        Never married 37.3%
Female 15 years and over 4,589,669
        Now married, except separated 44.6%
        Widowed 8.0%
        Divorced 12.7%
        Separated 2.2%
        Never married 32.4%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 2,772,163
        Nursery school, preschool 5.8%
        Kindergarten 4.9%
Elementary school (grades 1-8) 41.0%
High school (grades 9-12) 22.7%
        College or graduate school 25.7%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,358,342
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 71.9%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 22.1%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,413,821
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 65.2%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 29.2%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over 7,332,980
        Less than high school diploma 10.5%
        High school graduate (includes equivalency) 27.0%
        Some college or associate's degree 27.8%
        Bachelor's degree 20.7%
        Graduate or professional degree 14.0%
        High school graduate or higher 89.5%
            Male, high school graduate or higher 88.6%
            Female, high school graduate or higher 90.4%
        Bachelor's degree or higher 34.7%
            Male, bachelor's degree or higher 33.3%
            Female, bachelor's degree or higher 35.9%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years 2,675,339
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 151,128
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 54,424
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months 36.0%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over 6,602,024
        Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) 3.8%
            Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren 37.0%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over 8,347,433
        Civilian veteran 7.3%
DISABILITY STATUS
    Total civilian noninstitutionalized population 10,718,050
        With a disability 13.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years 2,503,322
        With a disability 5.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years 6,607,703
        With a disability 11.2%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older 1,607,025
        With a disability 34.7%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over 10,791,161
        Same house 86.6%
        Different house in the U.S. 12.8%
            Same county 5.2%
            Different county 7.6%
                Same state 4.6%
                Different state 3.0%
        Abroad 0.6%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
    Native 9,744,854
        Male 48.6%
        Female 51.4%
    Foreign born 1,168,022
        Male 49.9%
        Female 50.1%
        Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen 589,710
            Male 47.7%
            Female 52.3%
        Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen 578,312
            Male 52.2%
            Female 47.8%
    Population born outside the United States 1,168,022
Entered 2010 or later 34.3%
Entered 2000 to 2009 26.7%
Entered before 2000 39.0%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
    Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea 1,168,022
        Europe 7.6%
        Asia 30.5%
        Africa 11.7%
        Oceania 0.4%
        Latin America 48.4%
        Northern America 1.5%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over 10,291,750
        English only 85.1%
        Language other than English 14.9%
            Speak English less than "very well" 5.5%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over 8,708,310
        In labor force 63.9%
            Civilian labor force 63.2%
                Employed 60.6%
                Unemployed 2.6%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.2%
            Armed Forces 0.7%
        Not in labor force 36.1%
Females 16 years and over 4,509,831
        In labor force 59.4%
            Civilian labor force 59.2%
                Employed 56.5%
                Unemployed 2.7%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.5%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 5,214,843
        Car, truck, or van - drove alone 70.5%
        Car, truck, or van - carpooled 9.0%
        Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 1.1%
        Walked 1.3%
        Other means 1.8%
        Worked from home 16.3%
        Mean travel time to work (minutes) 28.2
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 5,273,176
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 41.4%
        Service occupations 14.6%
        Sales and office occupations 20.9%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 8.1%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 15.1%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,723,387
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 36.9%
        Service occupations 12.4%
        Sales and office occupations 14.5%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 14.8%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 21.4%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,549,789
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 46.2%
        Service occupations 16.9%
        Sales and office occupations 27.7%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 0.8%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 8.4%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 5,273,176
        Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 0.9%
        Construction 6.8%
        Manufacturing 10.4%
        Wholesale trade 2.4%
        Retail trade 11.4%
        Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 7.6%
        Information 2.3%
        Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 6.4%
        Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 13.3%
        Educational services, and health care and social assistance 20.5%
        Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 8.4%
        Other services (except public administration) 4.8%
        Public administration 4.8%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 5,273,176
        Private wage and salary workers 80.0%
        Government workers 14.2%
        Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 5.7%
        Unpaid family workers 0.2%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
    Households 4,092,467
        Median household income (dollars) 72,837
        With earnings 79.5%
            Mean earnings (dollars) 101,642
        With Social Security income 29.3%
            Mean Social Security income (dollars) 21,670
        With Supplemental Security Income 5.1%
            Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 10,304
        With cash public assistance income 1.7%
            Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 3,549
        With retirement income 22.8%
            Mean retirement income (dollars) 29,625
        With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits 13.2%
    Families 2,733,234
        Median family income (dollars) 86,642
            Married-couple family 70.2%
        Median income (dollars) 105,880
            Male householder, no spouse present, family 7.3%
        Median income (dollars) 63,120
            Female householder, no husband present, family 22.5%
        Median income (dollars) 47,661
    Individuals 10,912,876
        Per capita income (dollars) 38,378
        With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 2,196,252
            Female 1,800,677
        Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 83,251
            Female 62,404
        Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 58,853
            Female 48,397
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
    Civilian noninstitutionalized population 10,718,050
        With private health insurance 66.6%
        With public coverage 33.0%
        No health insurance coverage 11.7%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
    All families 9.4%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 13.9%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 12.0%
        Married-couple family 4.6%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 5.6%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 3.2%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 23.2%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 30.6%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 31.1%
    All people 12.7%
Under 18 years 16.6%
Related children of the householder under 18 years 16.3%
Related children of the householder under 5 years 18.0%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years 15.8%
18 years and over 11.5%
18 to 64 years 11.6%
65 years and over 11.1%
        People in families 10.1%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 24.4%
HOUSING TENURE
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
        Owner-occupied housing units 65.9%
        Renter-occupied housing units 34.1%
        Average household size of owner-occupied unit 2.71
        Average household size of renter-occupied unit 2.41
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
1-unit, detached or attached 72.4%
2 to 4 units 5.2%
5 or more units 14.9%
        Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. 7.5%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
Built 2020 or later 2.6%
Built 2010 to 2019 13.0%
Built 2000 to 2009 21.5%
Built 1980 to 1999 33.1%
Built 1960 to 1979 18.9%
Built 1940 to 1959 7.4%
Built 1939 or earlier 3.5%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
        None 5.7%
1 or more 94.3%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
        Gas 41.7%
        Electricity 56.7%
        All other fuels 0.8%
        No fuel used 0.8%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
        No telephone service available 0.7%
1.01 or more occupants per room 2.4%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) 1,705,941
Less than 30 percent 75.0%
30 percent or more 25.0%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
    Owner-occupied housing units 2,695,885
        Median value (dollars) 297,400
        Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) 1,599
        Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) 488
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) 1,284,614
Less than 30 percent 48.2%
30 percent or more 51.8%
GROSS RENT
    Occupied units paying rent 1,320,725
        Median gross rent (dollars) 1,269
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
    Total households 4,092,467
        With a computer 96.2%
        With a broadband Internet subscription 91.2%

Terms

  • Median: Half of the random samples have probabilities greater than and half less than the median.

  • Mean: The average of the 10,000 random samples constructed. It coincides with the Biden Proportion in the table above.

  • Mode: The probability that occurs most often.

  • q025: The value below which 2.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • q975: The value below which 97.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • MCSE: Measures the precision of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates by quantifying the variability due to finite sampling. Smaller values indicate better precision. Values close to zero indicate that little of the variability in the estimate arises from using MCMC.

  • Rhat: Assesses the convergence of MCMC chains by comparing within-chain and between-chain variances. Values close to 1 indicate convergence.

These diagnostics are used to assess usefulness of models using MCMC methods in determining whether the MCMC chains have run long enough to provide accurate and stable estimates of the posterior distributions.

The density plots show the number of observations on the \(y\)-axis and the probabilities on the \(x\)-axis. The shaded area in the center shows the credible interval within which 95% of the probabilities fall. The unshaded areas show that the proportion of the votes are likely to be either less than or greater than the credible interval.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Runoff rules

In the 2020 United States presidential election, Georgia initially reported its results on November 4th, 2020, the day after Election Day. However, due to the very close margin between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Georgia conducted a statewide hand recount of all ballots.

The hand recount began on November 13th and concluded on November 19th, 2020. The recount affirmed Biden's win in the state.

However, the Trump campaign requested another machine recount, which was conducted from November 24th to December 2nd, 2020. This second recount also confirmed Biden's victory.

Georgia officially certified its election results on November 20th, 2020, after the hand recount. The results were then re-certified on December 7th, 2020, following the machine recount.

So in total, it took about a month from Election Day for Georgia to finalize its presidential election results through the initial count, hand recount, machine recount, and two certifications, with the final certification occurring on December 7th, 2020. The same procedures are in place today.

Georgia Code § 21-2-495 (2022) provides for a recount in an election.

Whenever the difference between the number of votes received by a candidate who has been declared … elected to an office in an election … and the number of votes received by any other candidate … not declared so … elected or … shall be not more than one-half of 1 percent of the total votes which were cast for such office therein, any such candidate … receiving a sufficient number of votes so that the difference between his or her vote and that of a candidate declared … elected … is not more than one-half of 1 percent of the total votes cast, within a period of two business days following the certification of the election results, shall have the right to a recount of the votes cast, if such request is made in writing by the losing candidate. If the office sought is a federal or state office voted upon by the electors of more than one county, the request shall be made to the Secretary of State who shall direct that the recount be performed in all counties in which electors voted for such office and notify the superintendents of the several counties involved of the request.

The 0.5% (0.005) threshhold applies to the total number of votes cast for the position, rather than only the votes received by the two top candidates. In the 2020 election, the total number of votes cast for president was 4,999,960, while the votes for Biden and Trump numbered 4,935,487 and the 0.5% recount threshold was, accordingly 24,951 votes vs 24,678, a difference of only 273 votes. In the 2020 election, the difference between Biden and Trump was 11,779 votes, well within either measure.

Other News

Over the past three years, about 140,000 registered voters moved to Georgia, according to the analysis. When accounting for Georgia voters who moved away, the state had a net gain of about 30,000 voters. Roughly two out of every three of these new voters are likely Democrats, accounting for about 19,500 voters. About 6,000 of the new voters are likely Republican voters, while the remainder were not registered with a political party in their prior state or belonged to third parties.

Terms

  • Median: Half of the random samples have probabilities greater than and half less than the median.

  • Mean: The average of the 10,000 random samples constructed. It coincides with the Biden Proportion in the table above.

  • Mode: The probability that occurs most often.

  • q025: The value below which 2.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • q975: The value below which 97.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • MCSE: Measures the precision of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates by quantifying the variability due to finite sampling. Smaller values indicate better precision. Values close to zero indicate that little of the variability in the estimate arises from using MCMC.

  • Rhat: Assesses the convergence of MCMC chains by comparing within-chain and between-chain variances. Values close to 1 indicate convergence.

These diagnostics are used to assess usefulness of models using MCMC methods in determining whether the MCMC chains have run long enough to provide accurate and stable estimates of the posterior distributions.

The density plots show the number of observations on the \(y\)-axis and the probabilities on the \(x\)-axis. The shaded area in the center shows the credible interval within which 95% of the probabilities fall. The unshaded areas show that the proportion of the votes are likely to be either less than or greater than the credible interval.

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: June 20, 2024.