Georgia

Model results

Late September assessment

The model shows Harris trailing, with 3.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a very weak position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through late September. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median mean mode min max q025 q975
0.4935 0.4935 0.4939 0.4816 0.5067 0.4869 0.5004

Early September assessment

The model shows Harris trailing, with 18.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a weak position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through early September. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median mean mode min max q025 q975
0.4953 0.4953 0.4965 0.4766 0.5169 0.4853 0.5053

August assessment after convention

The model shows Harris trailing, with 42.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a weak position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through late August. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median mean mode min max q025 q975
0.4986 0.4986 0.4976 0.4748 0.5204 0.4864 0.5105

August assessment before convention

The model shows Harris trailing, with only 36.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a weak position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through early August. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

The result is influenced by the beginning "Bayesian prior," an assumption that at the end of July, each candidate had an equal chance of leading. The relative strength of that beginning assumption and cumulative polling results will change as more results are added.

median mean mode min max q025 q975
0.4974 0.4974 0.4973 0.4684 0.5293 0.4833 0.5114

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Georgia. Georgia is represented in 46 of the 128 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris.

Harris wins

States won by Harri won by Harriss Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
WI, GA and PA 45 271 267 Harris
AZ, GA and PA 46 272 266 Harris
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 273 265 Harris
GA, MI and NC 47 273 265 Harris
NV, WI, GA and NC 48 274 264 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 274 264 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and NC 49 275 263 Harris
GA, MI and PA 50 276 262 Harris
NV, WI, GA and PA 51 277 261 Harris
GA, PA and NC 51 277 261 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and PA 52 278 260 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 278 260 Harris
NV, GA, MI and NC 53 279 259 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and NC 53 279 259 Harris
NV, GA, MI and PA 56 282 256 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and PA 56 282 256 Harris
NV, GA, PA and NC 57 283 255 Harris
WI, GA, MI and NC 57 283 255 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 284 254 Harris
AZ, GA, MI and NC 58 284 254 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC 59 285 253 Harris
WI, GA, MI and PA 60 286 252 Harris
WI, GA, PA and NC 61 287 251 Harris
AZ, GA, MI and PA 61 287 251 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA 62 288 250 Harris
AZ, GA, PA and NC 62 288 250 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC 63 289 249 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC 64 290 248 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA 66 292 246 Harris
GA, MI, PA and NC 66 292 246 Harris
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC 67 293 245 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA 67 293 245 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC 68 294 244 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 68 294 244 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 71 297 241 Harris
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC 72 298 240 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 72 298 240 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 74 300 238 Harris
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 76 302 236 Harris
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 78 304 234 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 82 308 230 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 83 309 229 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 87 313 225 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 93 319 219 Harris

Ties

States won by Harris Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
NV, WI, AZ and GA 43 269 269 Tie
AZ, GA and NC 43 269 269 Tie

Trump wins

States won by Harris Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
GA 16 242 296 Trump
NV and GA 22 248 290 Trump
WI and GA 26 252 286 Trump
AZ and GA 27 253 285 Trump
GA and MI 31 257 281 Trump
GA and NC 32 258 280 Trump
NV, WI and GA 32 258 280 Trump
NV, AZ and GA 33 259 279 Trump
GA and PA 35 261 277 Trump
NV, GA and MI 37 263 275 Trump
WI, AZ and GA 37 263 275 Trump
NV, GA and NC 38 264 274 Trump
NV, GA and PA 41 267 271 Trump
WI, GA and MI 41 267 271 Trump
WI, GA and NC 42 268 270 Trump
AZ, GA and MI 42 268 270 Trump

Harris wins without Georgia

States won by Harris Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
WI, MI and PA 44 270 268 Harris
WI, PA and NC 45 271 267 Harris
AZ, MI and PA 45 271 267 Harris
NV, WI, AZ and PA 46 272 266 Harris
AZ, PA and NC 46 272 266 Harris
NV, WI, MI and NC 47 273 265 Harris
NV, AZ, MI and NC 48 274 264 Harris
NV, WI, MI and PA 50 276 262 Harris
MI, PA and NC 50 276 262 Harris
NV, WI, PA and NC 51 277 261 Harris
NV, AZ, MI and PA 51 277 261 Harris
NV, AZ, PA and NC 52 278 260 Harris
WI, AZ, MI and NC 52 278 260 Harris
WI, AZ, MI and PA 55 281 257 Harris
NV, MI, PA and NC 56 282 256 Harris
WI, AZ, PA and NC 56 282 256 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC 58 284 254 Harris
WI, MI, PA and NC 60 286 252 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA 61 287 251 Harris
AZ, MI, PA and NC 61 287 251 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC 62 288 250 Harris
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC 66 292 246 Harris
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC 67 293 245 Harris
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 71 297 241 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 77 303 235 Harris

Georgia facts

  • Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes: 16

  • 2020: Harris

  • 2016: Trump

  • 2020 turnout: 4,935,487

  • 2020 margin: 11,779

  • 2022 turnout (governor): 3,925,245

  • Governor: Brian Kemp (R)

  • Senator up for election: Neither

  • Senate: D (2)

  • House: R (9) R (5)

  • State House: R (102) D (78)

  • State House 2024 election: All seats

  • State Senate: R (33) D (23)

  • State Senate 2024 election: All seats

  • Secretary of State: Brad Raffensperger

  • SoS website

  • Polls close: 7 pm Eastern

  • Mail-in voting: Yes

  • Early in-person voting: Yes

Georgia demographics

Label (GROUPING) GA
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
    Total population 10,912,876
        One race 91.7%
        Two races 7.7%
        Three races 0.5%
        Four or more races 0.1%
SEX AND AGE
    Total population 10,912,876
        Male 48.8%
        Female 51.2%
Under 5 years 5.7%
5 to 17 years 17.3%
18 to 24 years 9.8%
25 to 34 years 13.6%
35 to 44 years 13.5%
45 to 54 years 12.8%
55 to 64 years 12.2%
65 to 74 years 9.2%
75 years and over 5.9%
        Median age (years) 37.6
18 years and over 77.0%
21 years and over 72.8%
62 years and over 18.6%
65 years and over 15.1%
Under 18 years 2,505,668
            Male 51.2%
            Female 48.8%
18 years and over 8,407,208
            Male 48.1%
            Female 51.9%
18 to 34 years 2,558,225
            Male 50.0%
            Female 50.0%
35 to 64 years 4,204,708
            Male 48.6%
            Female 51.4%
65 years and over 1,644,275
            Male 43.8%
            Female 56.2%
RELATIONSHIP
    Population in households 10,662,548
        Householder or spouse 56.4%
        Unmarried partner 2.3%
        Child 30.0%
        Other relatives 8.3%
        Other nonrelatives 3.0%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
    Households 4,092,467
        Family households 66.8%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 27.8%
        Married-couple family 46.9%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 18.1%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 15.0%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 7.6%
        Nonfamily households 33.2%
            Male householder 15.1%
                Living alone 11.6%
                Not living alone 3.5%
            Female householder 18.1%
                Living alone 15.4%
                Not living alone 2.6%
        Average household size 2.61
        Average family size 3.19
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over 8,867,492
        Now married, except separated 46.9%
        Widowed 5.4%
        Divorced 11.1%
        Separated 1.8%
        Never married 34.8%
Male 15 years and over 4,277,823
        Now married, except separated 49.5%
        Widowed 2.5%
        Divorced 9.3%
        Separated 1.5%
        Never married 37.3%
Female 15 years and over 4,589,669
        Now married, except separated 44.6%
        Widowed 8.0%
        Divorced 12.7%
        Separated 2.2%
        Never married 32.4%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 2,772,163
        Nursery school, preschool 5.8%
        Kindergarten 4.9%
Elementary school (grades 1-8) 41.0%
High school (grades 9-12) 22.7%
        College or graduate school 25.7%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,358,342
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 71.9%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 22.1%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,413,821
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 65.2%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 29.2%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over 7,332,980
        Less than high school diploma 10.5%
        High school graduate (includes equivalency) 27.0%
        Some college or associate's degree 27.8%
        Bachelor's degree 20.7%
        Graduate or professional degree 14.0%
        High school graduate or higher 89.5%
            Male, high school graduate or higher 88.6%
            Female, high school graduate or higher 90.4%
        Bachelor's degree or higher 34.7%
            Male, bachelor's degree or higher 33.3%
            Female, bachelor's degree or higher 35.9%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years 2,675,339
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 151,128
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 54,424
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months 36.0%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over 6,602,024
        Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) 3.8%
            Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren 37.0%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over 8,347,433
        Civilian veteran 7.3%
DISABILITY STATUS
    Total civilian noninstitutionalized population 10,718,050
        With a disability 13.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years 2,503,322
        With a disability 5.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years 6,607,703
        With a disability 11.2%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older 1,607,025
        With a disability 34.7%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over 10,791,161
        Same house 86.6%
        Different house in the U.S. 12.8%
            Same county 5.2%
            Different county 7.6%
                Same state 4.6%
                Different state 3.0%
        Abroad 0.6%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
    Native 9,744,854
        Male 48.6%
        Female 51.4%
    Foreign born 1,168,022
        Male 49.9%
        Female 50.1%
        Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen 589,710
            Male 47.7%
            Female 52.3%
        Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen 578,312
            Male 52.2%
            Female 47.8%
    Population born outside the United States 1,168,022
Entered 2010 or later 34.3%
Entered 2000 to 2009 26.7%
Entered before 2000 39.0%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
    Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea 1,168,022
        Europe 7.6%
        Asia 30.5%
        Africa 11.7%
        Oceania 0.4%
        Latin America 48.4%
        Northern America 1.5%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over 10,291,750
        English only 85.1%
        Language other than English 14.9%
            Speak English less than "very well" 5.5%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over 8,708,310
        In labor force 63.9%
            Civilian labor force 63.2%
                Employed 60.6%
                Unemployed 2.6%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.2%
            Armed Forces 0.7%
        Not in labor force 36.1%
Females 16 years and over 4,509,831
        In labor force 59.4%
            Civilian labor force 59.2%
                Employed 56.5%
                Unemployed 2.7%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.5%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 5,214,843
        Car, truck, or van - drove alone 70.5%
        Car, truck, or van - carpooled 9.0%
        Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 1.1%
        Walked 1.3%
        Other means 1.8%
        Worked from home 16.3%
        Mean travel time to work (minutes) 28.2
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 5,273,176
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 41.4%
        Service occupations 14.6%
        Sales and office occupations 20.9%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 8.1%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 15.1%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,723,387
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 36.9%
        Service occupations 12.4%
        Sales and office occupations 14.5%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 14.8%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 21.4%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,549,789
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 46.2%
        Service occupations 16.9%
        Sales and office occupations 27.7%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 0.8%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 8.4%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 5,273,176
        Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 0.9%
        Construction 6.8%
        Manufacturing 10.4%
        Wholesale trade 2.4%
        Retail trade 11.4%
        Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 7.6%
        Information 2.3%
        Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 6.4%
        Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 13.3%
        Educational services, and health care and social assistance 20.5%
        Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 8.4%
        Other services (except public administration) 4.8%
        Public administration 4.8%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 5,273,176
        Private wage and salary workers 80.0%
        Government workers 14.2%
        Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 5.7%
        Unpaid family workers 0.2%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
    Households 4,092,467
        Median household income (dollars) 72,837
        With earnings 79.5%
            Mean earnings (dollars) 101,642
        With Social Security income 29.3%
            Mean Social Security income (dollars) 21,670
        With Supplemental Security Income 5.1%
            Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 10,304
        With cash public assistance income 1.7%
            Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 3,549
        With retirement income 22.8%
            Mean retirement income (dollars) 29,625
        With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits 13.2%
    Families 2,733,234
        Median family income (dollars) 86,642
            Married-couple family 70.2%
        Median income (dollars) 105,880
            Male householder, no spouse present, family 7.3%
        Median income (dollars) 63,120
            Female householder, no husband present, family 22.5%
        Median income (dollars) 47,661
    Individuals 10,912,876
        Per capita income (dollars) 38,378
        With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 2,196,252
            Female 1,800,677
        Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 83,251
            Female 62,404
        Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 58,853
            Female 48,397
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
    Civilian noninstitutionalized population 10,718,050
        With private health insurance 66.6%
        With public coverage 33.0%
        No health insurance coverage 11.7%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
    All families 9.4%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 13.9%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 12.0%
        Married-couple family 4.6%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 5.6%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 3.2%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 23.2%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 30.6%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 31.1%
    All people 12.7%
Under 18 years 16.6%
Related children of the householder under 18 years 16.3%
Related children of the householder under 5 years 18.0%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years 15.8%
18 years and over 11.5%
18 to 64 years 11.6%
65 years and over 11.1%
        People in families 10.1%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 24.4%
HOUSING TENURE
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
        Owner-occupied housing units 65.9%
        Renter-occupied housing units 34.1%
        Average household size of owner-occupied unit 2.71
        Average household size of renter-occupied unit 2.41
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
1-unit, detached or attached 72.4%
2 to 4 units 5.2%
5 or more units 14.9%
        Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. 7.5%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
Built 2020 or later 2.6%
Built 2010 to 2019 13.0%
Built 2000 to 2009 21.5%
Built 1980 to 1999 33.1%
Built 1960 to 1979 18.9%
Built 1940 to 1959 7.4%
Built 1939 or earlier 3.5%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
        None 5.7%
1 or more 94.3%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
        Gas 41.7%
        Electricity 56.7%
        All other fuels 0.8%
        No fuel used 0.8%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
    Occupied housing units 4,092,467
        No telephone service available 0.7%
1.01 or more occupants per room 2.4%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) 1,705,941
Less than 30 percent 75.0%
30 percent or more 25.0%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
    Owner-occupied housing units 2,695,885
        Median value (dollars) 297,400
        Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) 1,599
        Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) 488
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) 1,284,614
Less than 30 percent 48.2%
30 percent or more 51.8%
GROSS RENT
    Occupied units paying rent 1,320,725
        Median gross rent (dollars) 1,269
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
    Total households 4,092,467
        With a computer 96.2%
        With a broadband Internet subscription 91.2%

Terms

  • Median: Half of the random samples have probabilities greater than and half less than the median.

  • Mean: The average of the 10,000 random samples constructed. It coincides with the Harris Proportion in the table above.

  • Mode: The probability that occurs most often.

  • q025: The value below which 2.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • q975: The value below which 97.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • MCSE: Measures the precision of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates by quantifying the variability due to finite sampling. Smaller values indicate better precision. Values close to zero indicate that little of the variability in the estimate arises from using MCMC.

  • Rhat: Assesses the convergence of MCMC chains by comparing within-chain and between-chain variances. Values close to 1 indicate convergence.

These diagnostics are used to assess usefulness of models using MCMC methods in determining whether the MCMC chains have run long enough to provide accurate and stable estimates of the posterior distributions.

The density plots show the number of observations on the \(y\)-axis and the probabilities on the \(x\)-axis. The shaded area in the center shows the credible interval within which 95% of the probabilities fall. The unshaded areas show that the proportion of the Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes are likely to be either less than or greater than the credible interval.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Runoff rules

In the 2020 United States presidential election, Georgia initially reported its Winners on November 4th, 2020, the day after Election Day. However, due to the very close margin between Joe Harris and Donald Trump, Georgia conducted a statewide hand recount of all ballots.

The hand recount began on November 13th and concluded on November 19th, 2020. The recount affirmed Harris's win in the state.

However, the Trump campaign requested another machine recount, which was conducted from November 24th to December 2nd, 2020. This second recount also confirmed Harris's victory.

Georgia officially certified its election Winners on November 20th, 2020, after the hand recount. The Winners were then re-certified on December 7th, 2020, following the machine recount.

So in total, it took about a month from Election Day for Georgia to finalize its presidential election Winners through the initial count, hand recount, machine recount, and two certifications, with the final certification occurring on December 7th, 2020. The same procedures are in place today.

Georgia Code § 21-2-495 (2022) provides for a recount in an election.

Whenever the difference between the number of Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes received by a candidate who has been declared … elected to an office in an election … and the number of Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes received by any other candidate … not declared so … elected or … shall be not more than one-half of 1 percent of the total Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes which were cast for such office therein, any such candidate … receiving a sufficient number of Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes so that the difference between his or her vote and that of a candidate declared … elected … is not more than one-half of 1 percent of the total Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes cast, within a period of two business days following the certification of the election Winners, shall have the right to a recount of the Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes cast, if such request is made in writing by the losing candidate. If the office sought is a federal or state office voted upon by the electors of more than one county, the request shall be made to the Secretary of State who shall direct that the recount be performed in all counties in which electors voted for such office and notify the superintendents of the several counties involved of the request.

The 0.5% (0.005) threshhold applies to the total number of Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes cast for the position, rather than only the Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes received by the two top candidates. In the 2020 election, the total number of Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes cast for president was 4,999,960, while the Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes for Harris and Trump numbered 4,935,487 and the 0.5% recount threshold was, accordingly 24,951 Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes vs 24,678, a difference of only 273 Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes. In the 2020 election, the difference between Harris and Trump was 11,779 Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes, well within either measure.

Other News

Over the past three years, about 140,000 registered voters moved to Georgia, according to the analysis. When accounting for Georgia voters who moved away, the state had a net gain of about 30,000 voters. Roughly two out of every three of these new voters are likely Democrats, accounting for about 19,500 voters. About 6,000 of the new voters are likely Republican voters, while the remainder were not registered with a political party in their prior state or belonged to third parties.

Terms

  • Median: Half of the random samples have probabilities greater than and half less than the median.

  • Mean: The average of the 10,000 random samples constructed. It coincides with the Harris Proportion in the table above.

  • Mode: The probability that occurs most often.

  • q025: The value below which 2.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • q975: The value below which 97.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • MCSE: Measures the precision of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates by quantifying the variability due to finite sampling. Smaller values indicate better precision. Values close to zero indicate that little of the variability in the estimate arises from using MCMC.

  • Rhat: Assesses the convergence of MCMC chains by comparing within-chain and between-chain variances. Values close to 1 indicate convergence.

These diagnostics are used to assess usefulness of models using MCMC methods in determining whether the MCMC chains have run long enough to provide accurate and stable estimates of the posterior distributions.

The density plots show the number of observations on the \(y\)-axis and the probabilities on the \(x\)-axis. The shaded area in the center shows the credible interval within which 95% of the probabilities fall. The unshaded areas show that the proportion of the Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes are likely to be either less than or greater than the credible interval.

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: October 08, 2024.