Seven Swing States

NOTE: The rest of this site is under revision to reflect the replacement of President Biden with Vice President Harris.

In the 2020 election, there were 49 states (including the District of Columnia and the sub-state districts in each of Maine and Nebraska) won by a margin of greater than 3%. Only seven states were decided by a margin of less than 1.5%. Texas had a margin of 2.8% but is not being talked of as a potential swing state. Florida had a margin of only 1.7% but is also not considered a swing state.

Assuming that each party retains all jurisdictions won in the 2020 election except for the swing states, Vice President Harris begins with the 226 electoral votes won by President Biden, excluding the swing states, and former President Trump begins with 219 electoral votes^[1] excluding North Carolina, using the 2024 Electoral College allocation. The scenario table following shows the result of a Harris win of each of the possible combinations of outcomes in those states.

These are the states that are widely discussed as swing states for 2024.

• PA 19 votes (down from 20 in the 2020 election)

• GA 16 votes

• NC 16 votes (up from 15)

• MI 15 votes (down from 16)

• AZ 11 votes

• WI 10 votes

• NV 6 votes

President Biden won all of the swing states in 2020 except for North Carolina.

Assuming that the remaining states and districts will be non-competitive and have the same electoral outcome, the starting point is 28 red states and districts with 219 electoral votes and 28 blue states and districts with 226 electoral votes. Vice President Harris begins with an advantage of seven electoral votes.

The seven swing states have 93 votes among them. Depending on the outcomes of their elections Vice President Harris can win with 44 or more of the 93 electoral votes in the swing states. Former President Trump needs 51 electoral votes from the swing states. Or they could each have 269 electoral votes, which puts the decision to the House of Representatives, voting by state delegation.

• Former President Trump wins in 53 of the possible outcomes

• Vice President Harris wins in 72 of the possible outcomes

• There are three possible ties

All the possible outcomes except for Harris taking none of the swing states is shown below. The State column identifies combinations of states won by Harris.

As the general election progresses there will be an accompanying new stream of political polls. Many of those polls report national polling results without state level detail. Because elections are not decided on the national popular vote, those provide little insight.

The state level polls of interest are of limited interest outside of the swing states. The most prominent possible exception is Florida, which had a 2020 margin of only 1.7% and may have possibly very high turnout in 2024.

The purpose of Swing Watch is to track the polls reporting on the swing states and to score the outcome based on a consistent methodology under a stated set of assumptions with fully-disclosed caclulations.