Seven Swing States

News and estimates about the seven 2024 presidential election swing states

128 possible outcomes

In the 2020 election, there were 49 states (including the District of Columnia and the sub-state districts in each of Maine and Nebraska) won by a margin of greater than 3.2%. Only seven states were decided by a margin of less than 3.2%. Assuming that each candidate retains all states won in the 2020 election except for the swing states, President Biden begins with 225 electoral votes, and former President Trump begins with 220 electoral votes[1] using the 2024 Electoral College allocation. The scenario table following shows the result of a Biden win of each of the possible combinations of outcomes in those states.

These are the states that are widely discussed as swing states for 2024.

  • PA 19 votes (down from 20 in the 2020 election)

  • GA 16 votes

  • NC 16 votes (up from 15)

  • MI 15 votes (down from 16)

  • AZ 11 votes

  • WI 10 votes

  • NV 6 votes

President Biden won all of the swing states in 2020 except for North Carolina.

Assuming that the remaining states and districts will be non-competitive and have the same electoral outcome, the starting point is 28 red states and districts with 220 electoral votes and 28 blue states and districts with 225 electoral votes. President Biden begins with an advantage of five electoral votes.

The seven swing states have 93 votes among them. Depending on the outcomes of their elections either President Biden or former President Trump could have more than 269 electoral votes with 45 or more of the 93 electoral votes in the swing states. Or they could each have 269 electoral votes, which puts the decision to the House of Representatives, voting by state delegation.

128 possible outcomes
  • Former President Trump wins in 57 of the possible outcomes

  • President Biden wins in 70 of the possible outcomes

  • There is one possible tie (if Biden wins only WI, MI and PA)

Without Biden wins in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania there are only four winning outcomes and no tie would occur.

Scenario Electoral Votes Biden Total Trump Total Result
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 272 266 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 273 265 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 277 261 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 283 255 Biden

All the possible outcomes (the scenario in which Biden wins none of the swing states is not shown.)

States won by Biden Swing electoral votes Biden total Trump total Result
NV 6 231 307 Trump
WI 10 235 303 Trump
AZ 11 236 302 Trump
MI 15 240 298 Trump
NV and WI 16 241 297 Trump
GA 16 241 297 Trump
NC 16 241 297 Trump
NV and AZ 17 242 296 Trump
PA 19 244 294 Trump
NV and MI 21 246 292 Trump
WI and AZ 21 246 292 Trump
NV and GA 22 247 291 Trump
NV and NC 22 247 291 Trump
NV and PA 25 250 288 Trump
WI and MI 25 250 288 Trump
WI and GA 26 251 287 Trump
WI and NC 26 251 287 Trump
AZ and MI 26 251 287 Trump
AZ and GA 27 252 286 Trump
AZ and NC 27 252 286 Trump
NV, WI and AZ 27 252 286 Trump
WI and PA 29 254 284 Trump
AZ and PA 30 255 283 Trump
GA and MI 31 256 282 Trump
MI and NC 31 256 282 Trump
NV, WI and MI 31 256 282 Trump
GA and NC 32 257 281 Trump
NV, WI and GA 32 257 281 Trump
NV, WI and NC 32 257 281 Trump
NV, AZ and MI 32 257 281 Trump
NV, AZ and GA 33 258 280 Trump
NV, AZ and NC 33 258 280 Trump
MI and PA 34 259 279 Trump
GA and PA 35 260 278 Trump
PA and NC 35 260 278 Trump
NV, WI and PA 35 260 278 Trump
NV, AZ and PA 36 261 277 Trump
WI, AZ and MI 36 261 277 Trump
NV, GA and MI 37 262 276 Trump
NV, MI and NC 37 262 276 Trump
WI, AZ and GA 37 262 276 Trump
WI, AZ and NC 37 262 276 Trump
NV, GA and NC 38 263 275 Trump
NV, MI and PA 40 265 273 Trump
WI, AZ and PA 40 265 273 Trump
NV, GA and PA 41 266 272 Trump
NV, PA and NC 41 266 272 Trump
WI, GA and MI 41 266 272 Trump
WI, MI and NC 41 266 272 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and MI 42 267 271 Trump
WI, GA and NC 42 267 271 Trump
AZ, GA and MI 42 267 271 Trump
AZ, MI and NC 42 267 271 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and GA 43 268 270 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and NC 43 268 270 Trump
AZ, GA and NC 43 268 270 Trump
WI, MI and PA 44 269 269 Tie
WI, GA and PA 45 270 268 Biden
WI, PA and NC 45 270 268 Biden
AZ, MI and PA 45 270 268 Biden
NV, WI, AZ and PA 46 271 267 Biden
AZ, GA and PA 46 271 267 Biden
AZ, PA and NC 46 271 267 Biden
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 272 266 Biden
NV, WI, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
GA, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
NV, WI, GA and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and NC 49 274 264 Biden
NV, WI, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
GA, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
MI, PA and NC 50 275 263 Biden
NV, WI, GA and PA 51 276 262 Biden
NV, WI, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and PA 51 276 262 Biden
GA, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and PA 52 277 261 Biden
NV, AZ, PA and NC 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and NC 52 277 261 Biden
NV, GA, MI and NC 53 278 260 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and NC 53 278 260 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and PA 55 280 258 Biden
NV, GA, MI and PA 56 281 257 Biden
NV, MI, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and PA 56 281 257 Biden
WI, AZ, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
NV, GA, PA and NC 57 282 256 Biden
WI, GA, MI and NC 57 282 256 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 283 255 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC 59 284 254 Biden
WI, GA, MI and PA 60 285 253 Biden
WI, MI, PA and NC 60 285 253 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
WI, GA, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, MI, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA 62 287 251 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
AZ, GA, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC 63 288 250 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC 64 289 249 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA 66 291 247 Biden
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
GA, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC 68 293 245 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 68 293 245 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 71 296 242 Biden
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 71 296 242 Biden
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 74 299 239 Biden
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 76 301 237 Biden
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 78 303 235 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 82 307 231 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 83 308 230 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 87 312 226 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 93 318 220 Biden

As the general election progresses there will be an accompanying newstream of political polls. Many of those polls report national polling results without state level detail. Because elections are not decided on the national popular vote, those provide little insight.

The state level polls of interest are of limited interest outside of the swing states. The most prominent possible exception is Florida, which had a 2020 margin of 3.4% and may have possibly very high turnout in 2024.

The purpose of Swing Watch is to track the polls reporting on the swing states and to score the outcome based on a consistent methodology under a stated set of assumptions with fully-disclosed caclulations.


[1] The 2020 election was held with the electoral college votes based on the 2010 Census. See 2024 Changes.

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: May 29, 2024.