Seven Swing States

In the 2020 election, there were 49 states (including the District of Columnia and the sub-state districts in each of Maine and Nebraska) won by a margin of greater than 3.2%. Only seven states were decided by a margin of less than 3.2%. Assuming that each candidate retains all states won in the 2020 election except for the swing states, President Harris begins with 225 electoral votes, and former President Trump begins with 220 electoral votes^[1] using the 2024 Electoral College allocation. The scenario table following shows the result of a Harris win of each of the possible combinations of outcomes in those states.

These are the states that are widely discussed as swing states for 2024.

• PA 19 votes (down from 20 in the 2020 election)

• GA 16 votes

• NC 16 votes (up from 15)

• MI 15 votes (down from 16)

• AZ 11 votes

• WI 10 votes

• NV 6 votes

President Biden won all of the swing states in 2020 except for North Carolina.

Assuming that the remaining states and districts will be non-competitive and have the same electoral outcome, the starting point is 28 red states and districts with 220 electoral votes and 28 blue states and districts with 225 electoral votes. President Harris begins with an advantage of five electoral votes.

The seven swing states have 93 votes among them. Depending on the outcomes of their elections either President Harris or former President Trump could have more than 269 electoral votes with 45 or more of the 93 electoral votes in the swing states. Or they could each have 269 electoral votes, which puts the decision to the House of Representatives, voting by state delegation.

• Former President Trump wins in 57 of the possible outcomes

• Vice President Harris wins in 70 of the possible outcomes

• There is one possible tie (if Harris wins only WI, MI and PA)

Without Harris wins in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania there are only four winning outcomes and no tie would occur.

All the possible outcomes (the scenario in which Harris wins none of the swing states is not shown.)

As the general election progresses there will be an accompanying newstream of political polls. Many of those polls report national polling results without state level detail. Because elections are not decided on the national popular vote, those provide little insight.

The state level polls of interest are of limited interest outside of the swing states. The most prominent possible exception is Florida, which had a 2020 margin of 3.4% and may have possibly very high turnout in 2024.

The purpose of Swing Watch is to track the polls reporting on the swing states and to score the outcome based on a consistent methodology under a stated set of assumptions with fully-disclosed caclulations.