Michigan

Model results

In the 2020 election President Biden won 51.41% (0.5141) of the votes cast for Biden or Trump in Michigan. This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 51.36% to 51.45%. Next, the results of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis.

Assessments are based on three criteria.

  • Stringent—Biden wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than his 2020 margin.

  • Historical—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.

  • Relaxed—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.

May assessment

Biden win under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5139 0.5139 0.5139 0.5135 0.5144 0.0 1.0004

April assessment

Biden win under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5141 0.5141 0.5141 0.5137 0.5145 0.0 1.0002

March assessment

Biden win under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.514 0.514 0.5141 0.5136 0.5145 0.0 1.0

2020 election

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5141 0.5141 0.5141 0.5137 0.5146 0.0 1.0002

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Michigan. Not included is the trivial case where one candidate takes all of the swing states. Michigan is represented in 64 of the 127 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Biden.

Biden wins

Scenario Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
NV, MI, WI, NC and AZ 58 270 268 Biden
NV, MI, PA and GA 58 270 268 Biden
MI, NC, AZ and GA 58 270 268 Biden
NV, MI, WI, AZ and GA 59 271 267 Biden
MI, WI, NC and PA 61 273 265 Biden
MI, WI, PA and GA 62 274 264 Biden
MI, NC, AZ and PA 62 274 264 Biden
NV, MI, WI, NC and GA 63 275 263 Biden
NV, MI, WI, AZ and PA 63 275 263 Biden
MI, AZ, PA and GA 63 275 263 Biden
NV, MI, NC, AZ and GA 64 276 262 Biden
NV, MI, WI, NC and PA 67 279 259 Biden
MI, NC, PA and GA 67 279 259 Biden
NV, MI, WI, PA and GA 68 280 258 Biden
NV, MI, NC, AZ and PA 68 280 258 Biden
MI, WI, NC, AZ and GA 68 280 258 Biden
NV, MI, AZ, PA and GA 69 281 257 Biden
MI, WI, NC, AZ and PA 72 284 254 Biden
NV, MI, NC, PA and GA 73 285 253 Biden
MI, WI, AZ, PA and GA 73 285 253 Biden
NV, MI, WI, NC, AZ and GA 74 286 252 Biden
MI, WI, NC, PA and GA 77 289 249 Biden
MI, NC, AZ, PA and GA 78 290 248 Biden
NV, MI, WI, NC, AZ and PA 78 290 248 Biden
NV, MI, WI, AZ, PA and GA 79 291 247 Biden
NV, MI, WI, NC, PA and GA 83 295 243 Biden
NV, MI, NC, AZ, PA and GA 84 296 242 Biden
MI, WI, NC, AZ, PA and GA 88 300 238 Biden
NV, MI, WI, NC, AZ, PA and GA 94 306 232 Biden

Electoral ties

Scenario Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
NV, MI, NC and PA 57 269 269 Tie
MI, WI, NC and GA 57 269 269 Tie
MI, WI, AZ and PA 57 269 269 Tie

Trump wins

Scenario Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
MI 16 228 310 Trump
NV and MI 22 234 304 Trump
MI and WI 26 238 300 Trump
MI and AZ 27 239 299 Trump
MI and NC 31 243 295 Trump
MI and GA 32 244 294 Trump
NV, MI and WI 32 244 294 Trump
NV, MI and AZ 33 245 293 Trump
MI and PA 36 248 290 Trump
NV, MI and NC 37 249 289 Trump
MI, WI and AZ 37 249 289 Trump
NV, MI and GA 38 250 288 Trump
MI, WI and NC 41 253 285 Trump
NV, MI and PA 42 254 284 Trump
MI, WI and GA 42 254 284 Trump
MI, NC and AZ 42 254 284 Trump
NV, MI, WI and AZ 43 255 283 Trump
MI, AZ and GA 43 255 283 Trump
MI, WI and PA 46 258 280 Trump
NV, MI, WI and NC 47 259 279 Trump
MI, NC and GA 47 259 279 Trump
MI, AZ and PA 47 259 279 Trump
NV, MI, WI and GA 48 260 278 Trump
NV, MI, NC and AZ 48 260 278 Trump
NV, MI, AZ and GA 49 261 277 Trump
MI, NC and PA 51 263 275 Trump
NV, MI, WI and PA 52 264 274 Trump
MI, WI, NC and AZ 52 264 274 Trump
MI, PA and GA 52 264 274 Trump
NV, MI, NC and GA 53 265 273 Trump
NV, MI, AZ and PA 53 265 273 Trump
MI, WI, AZ and GA 53 265 273 Trump

Biden wins without Michigan

Scenario Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
NV, WI, NC, AZ and GA 58 270 268 Biden
WI, NC, PA and GA 61 273 265 Biden
NV, WI, NC, AZ and PA 62 274 264 Biden
NC, AZ, PA and GA 62 274 264 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, PA and GA 63 275 263 Biden
NV, WI, NC, PA and GA 67 279 259 Biden
NV, NC, AZ, PA and GA 68 280 258 Biden
WI, NC, AZ, PA and GA 72 284 254 Biden
NV, WI, NC, AZ, PA and GA 78 290 248 Biden

Michigan facts

  • Electoral votes: 15

  • 2020: Biden

  • 2016: Trump

  • 2020 turnout: 5,453,892

  • 2020 margin: 154,188

  • 2022 turnout (governor): 4,391,140

  • Governor: Gretchen Widmer (D)

  • Senator up for election: Debbie Stabenow (D)

  • Senate: D (2)

  • House: D (7) R (6)

  • State House: D (56) R (54)

  • State House 2024 election: All seats

  • State Senate: R (20) D (18)

  • State Senate 2024 election: None

  • Secretary of State: Jocelyn Benson (D)

  • SoS website

  • Polls close: 8 pm Eastern

  • Mail-in voting: Yes

  • Early in-person voting: Yes

Michigan demographics

Label (GROUPING) MI
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
    Total population 10,034,118
        One race 92.9%
        Two races 6.7%
        Three races 0.4%
        Four or more races 0.0%
SEX AND AGE
    Total population 10,034,118
        Male 49.6%
        Female 50.4%
Under 5 years 5.3%
5 to 17 years 15.6%
18 to 24 years 9.5%
25 to 34 years 13.1%
35 to 44 years 12.2%
45 to 54 years 12.0%
55 to 64 years 13.6%
65 to 74 years 11.2%
75 years and over 7.5%
        Median age (years) 40.3
18 years and over 79.0%
21 years and over 75.0%
62 years and over 23.0%
65 years and over 18.7%
Under 18 years 2,106,228
            Male 51.3%
            Female 48.7%
18 years and over 7,927,890
            Male 49.2%
            Female 50.8%
18 to 34 years 2,264,311
            Male 51.2%
            Female 48.8%
35 to 64 years 3,786,017
            Male 49.9%
            Female 50.1%
65 years and over 1,877,562
            Male 45.2%
            Female 54.8%
RELATIONSHIP
    Population in households 9,821,154
        Householder or spouse 60.6%
        Unmarried partner 3.1%
        Child 28.3%
        Other relatives 5.1%
        Other nonrelatives 2.8%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
    Households 4,089,794
        Family households 62.3%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 24.0%
        Married-couple family 45.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 16.0%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 11.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 5.8%
        Nonfamily households 37.7%
            Male householder 18.1%
                Living alone 14.3%
                Not living alone 3.8%
            Female householder 19.6%
                Living alone 16.3%
                Not living alone 3.3%
        Average household size 2.40
        Average family size 3.02
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over 8,310,382
        Now married, except separated 47.4%
        Widowed 5.9%
        Divorced 11.2%
        Separated 1.1%
        Never married 34.4%
Male 15 years and over 4,095,300
        Now married, except separated 48.6%
        Widowed 2.9%
        Divorced 10.0%
        Separated 1.0%
        Never married 37.5%
Female 15 years and over 4,215,082
        Now married, except separated 46.2%
        Widowed 8.8%
        Divorced 12.4%
        Separated 1.2%
        Never married 31.4%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 2,291,873
        Nursery school, preschool 5.8%
        Kindergarten 5.1%
Elementary school (grades 1-8) 40.4%
High school (grades 9-12) 22.2%
        College or graduate school 26.5%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,135,923
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 70.1%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 23.6%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,155,950
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 65.3%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 29.3%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over 6,978,952
        Less than high school diploma 8.2%
        High school graduate (includes equivalency) 28.1%
        Some college or associate's degree 31.6%
        Bachelor's degree 19.5%
        Graduate or professional degree 12.6%
        High school graduate or higher 91.8%
            Male, high school graduate or higher 91.2%
            Female, high school graduate or higher 92.5%
        Bachelor's degree or higher 32.1%
            Male, bachelor's degree or higher 31.2%
            Female, bachelor's degree or higher 33.0%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years 2,235,671
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 111,639
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 36,943
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months 33.1%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over 6,330,291
        Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) 2.4%
            Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren 30.7%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over 7,923,161
        Civilian veteran 5.8%
DISABILITY STATUS
    Total civilian noninstitutionalized population 9,929,781
        With a disability 14.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years 2,103,940
        With a disability 5.1%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years 5,987,728
        With a disability 12.2%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older 1,838,113
        With a disability 31.9%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over 9,936,710
        Same house 88.4%
        Different house in the U.S. 11.1%
            Same county 6.1%
            Different county 5.1%
                Same state 3.5%
                Different state 1.6%
        Abroad 0.4%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
    Native 9,338,915
        Male 49.6%
        Female 50.4%
    Foreign born 695,203
        Male 49.3%
        Female 50.7%
        Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen 396,976
            Male 48.0%
            Female 52.0%
        Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen 298,227
            Male 51.0%
            Female 49.0%
    Population born outside the United States 695,203
Entered 2010 or later 38.4%
Entered 2000 to 2009 21.6%
Entered before 2000 39.9%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
    Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea 695,203
        Europe 16.7%
        Asia 53.7%
        Africa 5.7%
        Oceania 0.4%
        Latin America 18.7%
        Northern America 4.8%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over 9,497,313
        English only 89.8%
        Language other than English 10.2%
            Speak English less than "very well" 3.7%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over 8,179,427
        In labor force 61.6%
            Civilian labor force 61.5%
                Employed 58.7%
                Unemployed 2.9%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.6%
            Armed Forces 0.1%
        Not in labor force 38.4%
Females 16 years and over 4,152,360
        In labor force 57.3%
            Civilian labor force 57.2%
                Employed 54.7%
                Unemployed 2.6%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.5%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 4,706,068
        Car, truck, or van - drove alone 74.0%
        Car, truck, or van - carpooled 7.9%
        Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 0.8%
        Walked 2.0%
        Other means 1.6%
        Worked from home 13.7%
        Mean travel time to work (minutes) 24.2
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 4,800,228
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 40.6%
        Service occupations 15.9%
        Sales and office occupations 19.3%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 7.9%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 16.3%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,530,898
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 37.0%
        Service occupations 12.1%
        Sales and office occupations 13.5%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 14.3%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 23.0%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,269,330
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 44.7%
        Service occupations 20.0%
        Sales and office occupations 25.8%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 0.8%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 8.7%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 4,800,228
        Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 1.1%
        Construction 5.9%
        Manufacturing 18.2%
        Wholesale trade 1.9%
        Retail trade 10.7%
        Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 5.1%
        Information 1.3%
        Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 5.8%
        Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 10.2%
        Educational services, and health care and social assistance 23.0%
        Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 8.7%
        Other services (except public administration) 4.5%
        Public administration 3.5%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 4,800,228
        Private wage and salary workers 83.1%
        Government workers 11.4%
        Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 5.3%
        Unpaid family workers 0.1%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
    Households 4,089,794
        Median household income (dollars) 66,986
        With earnings 74.2%
            Mean earnings (dollars) 94,540
        With Social Security income 34.6%
            Mean Social Security income (dollars) 23,068
        With Supplemental Security Income 5.6%
            Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 11,164
        With cash public assistance income 2.5%
            Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 3,460
        With retirement income 27.9%
            Mean retirement income (dollars) 26,950
        With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits 13.6%
    Families 2,548,560
        Median family income (dollars) 85,865
            Married-couple family 73.3%
        Median income (dollars) 102,076
            Male householder, no spouse present, family 7.9%
        Median income (dollars) 60,615
            Female householder, no husband present, family 18.8%
        Median income (dollars) 44,192
    Individuals 10,034,118
        Per capita income (dollars) 38,151
        With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 1,938,740
            Female 1,436,983
        Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 81,467
            Female 61,245
        Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 61,623
            Female 49,665
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
    Civilian noninstitutionalized population 9,929,781
        With private health insurance 70.4%
        With public coverage 41.0%
        No health insurance coverage 4.5%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
    All families 9.1%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 15.1%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 13.7%
        Married-couple family 4.5%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 6.5%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 4.0%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 25.3%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 35.9%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 41.4%
    All people 13.4%
Under 18 years 18.2%
Related children of the householder under 18 years 17.8%
Related children of the householder under 5 years 19.8%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years 17.1%
18 years and over 12.1%
18 to 64 years 12.8%
65 years and over 9.8%
        People in families 10.2%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 25.0%
HOUSING TENURE
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
        Owner-occupied housing units 73.2%
        Renter-occupied housing units 26.8%
        Average household size of owner-occupied unit 2.52
        Average household size of renter-occupied unit 2.08
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
1-unit, detached or attached 77.4%
2 to 4 units 4.6%
5 or more units 13.2%
        Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. 4.9%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
Built 2020 or later 0.9%
Built 2010 to 2019 5.6%
Built 2000 to 2009 10.5%
Built 1980 to 1999 21.9%
Built 1960 to 1979 26.5%
Built 1940 to 1959 20.9%
Built 1939 or earlier 13.7%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
        None 6.9%
1 or more 93.1%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
        Gas 83.4%
        Electricity 12.3%
        All other fuels 3.8%
        No fuel used 0.5%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
        No telephone service available 0.8%
1.01 or more occupants per room 1.6%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) 1,724,683
Less than 30 percent 76.0%
30 percent or more 24.0%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
    Owner-occupied housing units 2,991,685
        Median value (dollars) 224,400
        Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) 1,435
        Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) 565
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) 1,008,054
Less than 30 percent 49.2%
30 percent or more 50.8%
GROSS RENT
    Occupied units paying rent 1,034,449
        Median gross rent (dollars) 1,052
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
    Total households 4,089,794
        With a computer 95.5%
        With a broadband Internet subscription 90.5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: June 19, 2024.