Arizona

Model results

In the 2020 election President Biden won 50.16% (0.5016) of the votes cast for Biden or Trump in Arizona. This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 50.10% to 50.21%. Next, the results of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis.

Assessments are based on three criteria.

  • Stringent—Biden wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than his 2020 margin.

  • Historical—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.

  • Relaxed—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.

May assessment

Biden win under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5014 0.5014 0.5015 0.5009 0.502 0.0 1.0

April assessment

Biden win under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5015 0.5015 0.5013 0.5009 0.502 0.0 1.0008

March assessment

Biden win under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5015 0.5015 0.5014 0.501 0.5021 0.0 1.0001

2020 election

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5016 0.5016 0.5016 0.501 0.5021 0.0 1.0002

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Arizona. Arizona is represented in 64 of the 128 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Biden.

Biden wins

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
AZ, MI and PA 45 270 268 Biden
NV, WI, AZ and PA 46 271 267 Biden
AZ, GA and PA 46 271 267 Biden
AZ, PA and NC 46 271 267 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and NC 49 274 264 Biden
NV, AZ, MI and PA 51 276 262 Biden
NV, AZ, GA and PA 52 277 261 Biden
NV, AZ, PA and NC 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and NC 52 277 261 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and NC 53 278 260 Biden
WI, AZ, MI and PA 55 280 258 Biden
WI, AZ, GA and PA 56 281 257 Biden
WI, AZ, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 283 255 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and NC 58 283 255 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC 59 284 254 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, GA, MI and PA 61 286 252 Biden
AZ, MI, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA 62 287 251 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
AZ, GA, PA and NC 62 287 251 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC 64 289 249 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC 68 293 245 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 68 293 245 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 71 296 242 Biden
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 71 296 242 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 74 299 239 Biden
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 77 302 236 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 78 303 235 Biden
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 83 308 230 Biden
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 87 312 226 Biden
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 93 318 220 Biden

Trump wins

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
AZ 11 236 302 Trump
NV and AZ 17 242 296 Trump
WI and AZ 21 246 292 Trump
AZ and MI 26 251 287 Trump
AZ and GA 27 252 286 Trump
AZ and NC 27 252 286 Trump
NV, WI and AZ 27 252 286 Trump
AZ and PA 30 255 283 Trump
NV, AZ and MI 32 257 281 Trump
NV, AZ and GA 33 258 280 Trump
NV, AZ and NC 33 258 280 Trump
NV, AZ and PA 36 261 277 Trump
WI, AZ and MI 36 261 277 Trump
WI, AZ and GA 37 262 276 Trump
WI, AZ and NC 37 262 276 Trump
WI, AZ and PA 40 265 273 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and MI 42 267 271 Trump
AZ, GA and MI 42 267 271 Trump
AZ, MI and NC 42 267 271 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and GA 43 268 270 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and NC 43 268 270 Trump
AZ, GA and NC 43 268 270 Trump

Biden wins without Arizona

States won by Biden Electoral Votes Biden Votes Trump Votes Result
WI, GA and PA 45 270 268 Biden
WI, PA and NC 45 270 268 Biden
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 272 266 Biden
NV, WI, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
GA, MI and NC 47 272 266 Biden
NV, WI, GA and NC 48 273 265 Biden
NV, WI, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
GA, MI and PA 50 275 263 Biden
MI, PA and NC 50 275 263 Biden
NV, WI, GA and PA 51 276 262 Biden
NV, WI, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
GA, PA and NC 51 276 262 Biden
NV, GA, MI and NC 53 278 260 Biden
NV, GA, MI and PA 56 281 257 Biden
NV, MI, PA and NC 56 281 257 Biden
NV, GA, PA and NC 57 282 256 Biden
WI, GA, MI and NC 57 282 256 Biden
WI, GA, MI and PA 60 285 253 Biden
WI, MI, PA and NC 60 285 253 Biden
WI, GA, PA and NC 61 286 252 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC 63 288 250 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA 66 291 247 Biden
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
GA, MI, PA and NC 66 291 247 Biden
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC 67 292 246 Biden
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC 72 297 241 Biden
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 76 301 237 Biden
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 82 307 231 Biden

State facts

  • Electoral votes: 11

  • 2020: Biden

  • 2016: Trump

  • 2020 turnout: 3,333,829

  • 2020 margin: 10,457

  • 2022 turnout (governor): 2,560,665

  • Governor: Katie Hobbs (D)

  • Senator up for election: Open seat

  • Senate: D (1) I(1)

  • House: D (3) R (6)

  • State House: R (16) D (14)

  • State House 2024 election: All seats (incumbents can be term limited)

  • State Senate: R (16) D (14)

  • State Senate 2024 election: All seats (incumbents can be term limited)

  • Secretary of State: Adrian Fontes (D)

  • SoS website

  • Polls close: 7 pm Mountain

  • Mail-in voting: Yes

  • Early in-person voting: Yes

2022 demographcis

Label (GROUPING)/th> AZ
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
    Total population 7,359,197
        One race 80.6%
        Two races 18.5%
        Three races 0.8%
        Four or more races 0.1%
SEX AND AGE
    Total population 7,359,197
        Male 50.0%
        Female 50.0%
Under 5 years 5.3%
5 to 17 years 16.2%
18 to 24 years 9.8%
25 to 34 years 13.8%
35 to 44 years 12.6%
45 to 54 years 11.6%
55 to 64 years 11.8%
65 to 74 years 10.6%
75 years and over 8.2%
        Median age (years) 38.8
18 years and over 78.4%
21 years and over 74.5%
62 years and over 22.5%
65 years and over 18.8%
Under 18 years 1,587,603
            Male 51.1%
            Female 48.9%
18 years and over 5,771,594
            Male 49.7%
            Female 50.3%
18 to 34 years 1,736,629
            Male 51.9%
            Female 48.1%
35 to 64 years 2,653,011
            Male 50.2%
            Female 49.8%
65 years and over 1,381,954
            Male 46.0%
            Female 54.0%
RELATIONSHIP
    Population in households 7,204,265
        Householder or spouse 58.0%
        Unmarried partner 3.3%
        Child 27.8%
        Other relatives 7.4%
        Other nonrelatives 3.5%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
    Households 2,850,377
        Family households 64.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 25.2%
        Married-couple family 46.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 16.6%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 11.8%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 5.8%
        Nonfamily households 35.3%
            Male householder 16.9%
                Living alone 12.6%
                Not living alone 4.4%
            Female householder 18.4%
                Living alone 14.6%
                Not living alone 3.8%
        Average household size 2.53
        Average family size 3.10
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over 6,063,874
        Now married, except separated 47.4%
        Widowed 5.3%
        Divorced 11.4%
        Separated 1.4%
        Never married 34.5%
Male 15 years and over 3,017,075
        Now married, except separated 48.3%
        Widowed 2.7%
        Divorced 9.9%
        Separated 1.2%
        Never married 37.9%
Female 15 years and over 3,046,799
        Now married, except separated 46.5%
        Widowed 7.9%
        Divorced 12.9%
        Separated 1.6%
        Never married 31.1%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,720,168
        Nursery school, preschool 4.2%
        Kindergarten 4.8%
Elementary school (grades 1-8) 41.4%
High school (grades 9-12) 23.0%
        College or graduate school 26.6%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school 858,679
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 70.8%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 24.7%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school 861,489
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 67.8%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 28.4%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over 5,053,656
        Less than high school diploma 10.8%
        High school graduate (includes equivalency) 23.8%
        Some college or associate's degree 32.4%
        Bachelor's degree 20.4%
        Graduate or professional degree 12.5%
        High school graduate or higher 89.2%
            Male, high school graduate or higher 88.9%
            Female, high school graduate or higher 89.4%
        Bachelor's degree or higher 33.0%
            Male, bachelor's degree or higher 32.7%
            Female, bachelor's degree or higher 33.2%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years 1,680,785
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 86,548
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 30,022
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months 34.7%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over 4,546,407
        Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) 3.4%
            Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren 31.3%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over 5,747,509
        Civilian veteran 7.9%
DISABILITY STATUS
    Total civilian noninstitutionalized population 7,251,924
        With a disability 13.6%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years 1,585,268
        With a disability 5.1%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years 4,304,458
        With a disability 10.9%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older 1,362,198
        With a disability 31.9%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over 7,285,247
        Same house 86.0%
        Different house in the U.S. 13.4%
            Same county 7.9%
            Different county 5.5%
                Same state 1.6%
                Different state 3.9%
        Abroad 0.6%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
    Native 6,396,509
        Male 50.2%
        Female 49.8%
    Foreign born 962,688
        Male 48.6%
        Female 51.4%
        Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen 477,730
            Male 46.8%
            Female 53.2%
        Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen 484,958
            Male 50.4%
            Female 49.6%
    Population born outside the United States 962,688
Entered 2010 or later 27.7%
Entered 2000 to 2009 22.7%
Entered before 2000 49.6%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
    Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea 962,688
        Europe 8.0%
        Asia 21.9%
        Africa 4.1%
        Oceania 0.5%
        Latin America 61.7%
        Northern America 3.7%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over 6,965,784
        English only 73.8%
        Language other than English 26.2%
            Speak English less than "very well" 8.2%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over 5,961,733
        In labor force 60.7%
            Civilian labor force 60.3%
                Employed 57.7%
                Unemployed 2.6%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.3%
            Armed Forces 0.4%
        Not in labor force 39.3%
Females 16 years and over 2,995,623
        In labor force 55.5%
            Civilian labor force 55.4%
                Employed 52.9%
                Unemployed 2.5%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.5%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 3,402,927
        Car, truck, or van - drove alone 66.1%
        Car, truck, or van - carpooled 9.8%
        Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 0.8%
        Walked 1.7%
        Other means 2.4%
        Worked from home 19.2%
        Mean travel time to work (minutes) 24.9
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 3,441,676
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 40.9%
        Service occupations 17.1%
        Sales and office occupations 22.3%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 8.8%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 10.9%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over 1,855,786
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 37.3%
        Service occupations 15.3%
        Sales and office occupations 17.0%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 15.5%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 15.0%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over 1,585,890
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 45.1%
        Service occupations 19.2%
        Sales and office occupations 28.6%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 0.9%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 6.1%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 3,441,676
        Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 1.4%
        Construction 7.7%
        Manufacturing 7.5%
        Wholesale trade 1.9%
        Retail trade 12.2%
        Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 6.1%
        Information 1.4%
        Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 8.9%
        Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 12.5%
        Educational services, and health care and social assistance 21.4%
        Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 9.6%
        Other services (except public administration) 4.6%
        Public administration 4.8%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 3,441,676
        Private wage and salary workers 80.3%
        Government workers 13.6%
        Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 5.8%
        Unpaid family workers 0.2%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
    Households 2,850,377
        Median household income (dollars) 74,568
        With earnings 75.2%
            Mean earnings (dollars) 102,494
        With Social Security income 33.4%
            Mean Social Security income (dollars) 23,704
        With Supplemental Security Income 4.0%
            Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 10,678
        With cash public assistance income 1.9%
            Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 3,724
        With retirement income 26.7%
            Mean retirement income (dollars) 31,251
        With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits 10.3%
    Families 1,843,530
        Median family income (dollars) 88,679
            Married-couple family 72.3%
        Median income (dollars) 103,182
            Male householder, no spouse present, family 9.4%
        Median income (dollars) 64,779
            Female householder, no husband present, family 18.3%
        Median income (dollars) 51,649
    Individuals 7,359,197
        Per capita income (dollars) 39,819
        With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 1,478,889
            Female 1,080,442
        Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 81,123
            Female 64,020
        Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 57,628
            Female 50,126
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
    Civilian noninstitutionalized population 7,251,924
        With private health insurance 63.9%
        With public coverage 38.3%
        No health insurance coverage 10.3%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
    All families 8.9%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 13.3%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 11.8%
        Married-couple family 5.6%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 7.3%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 5.5%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 20.9%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 29.3%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 31.1%
    All people 12.5%
Under 18 years 15.8%
Related children of the householder under 18 years 15.5%
Related children of the householder under 5 years 17.7%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years 14.7%
18 years and over 11.5%
18 to 64 years 11.9%
65 years and over 10.4%
        People in families 9.8%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 22.7%
HOUSING TENURE
    Occupied housing units 2,850,377
        Owner-occupied housing units 67.4%
        Renter-occupied housing units 32.6%
        Average household size of owner-occupied unit 2.59
        Average household size of renter-occupied unit 2.39
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
    Occupied housing units 2,850,377
1-unit, detached or attached 71.4%
2 to 4 units 4.4%
5 or more units 16.0%
        Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. 8.2%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
    Occupied housing units 2,850,377
Built 2020 or later 2.7%
Built 2010 to 2019 12.6%
Built 2000 to 2009 23.2%
Built 1980 to 1999 32.2%
Built 1960 to 1979 21.4%
Built 1940 to 1959 6.6%
Built 1939 or earlier 1.3%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
    Occupied housing units 2,850,377
        None 5.1%
1 or more 94.9%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
    Occupied housing units 2,850,377
        Gas 35.8%
        Electricity 60.2%
        All other fuels 3.0%
        No fuel used 1.0%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
    Occupied housing units 2,850,377
        No telephone service available 1.3%
1.01 or more occupants per room 4.5%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) 1,180,749
Less than 30 percent 73.7%
30 percent or more 26.3%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
    Owner-occupied housing units 1,921,746
        Median value (dollars) 402,800
        Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) 1,616
        Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) 468
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) 867,455
Less than 30 percent 47.2%
30 percent or more 52.8%
GROSS RENT
    Occupied units paying rent 887,809
        Median gross rent (dollars) 1,450
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
    Total households 2,850,377
        With a computer 96.4%
        With a broadband Internet subscription 91.1%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Terms

  • Median: Half of the random samples have probabilities greater than and half less than the median.

  • Mean: The average of the 10,000 random samples constructed. It coincides with the Biden Proportion in the table above.

  • Mode: The probability that occurs most often.

  • q025: The value below which 2.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • q975: The value below which 97.5% of the probabilities occur.

  • MCSE: Measures the precision of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates by quantifying the variability due to finite sampling. Smaller values indicate better precision. Values close to zero indicate that little of the variability in the estimate arises from using MCMC.

  • Rhat: Assesses the convergence of MCMC chains by comparing within-chain and between-chain variances. Values close to 1 indicate convergence.

These diagnostics are used to assess usefulness of models using MCMC methods in determining whether the MCMC chains have run long enough to provide accurate and stable estimates of the posterior distributions.

The density plots show the number of observations on the \(y\)-axis and the probabilities on the \(x\)-axis. The shaded area in the center shows the credible interval within which 95% of the probabilities fall. The unshaded areas show that the proportion of the votes are likely to be either less than or greater than the credible interval.

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: June 19, 2024.