Final
Scenarios
State facts
2022 demographcis
Terms

Model results

Final

The model shows Harris trailing badly, with 0.38% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests an extremely weak position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through October 31. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.4922	0.4923	0.4936	0.4788	0.5039	0.4854	0.4988

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Arizona. Arizona is represented in 42 of the 128 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris.

Harris wins

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
AZ, MI and PA	45	271	267	Harris
NV, WI, AZ and PA	46	272	266	Harris
AZ, GA and PA	46	272	266	Harris
AZ, PA and NC	46	272	266	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and MI	48	274	264	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and NC	48	274	264	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and NC	49	275	263	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and PA	51	277	261	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and PA	52	278	260	Harris
NV, AZ, PA and NC	52	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and MI	52	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and NC	52	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and NC	53	279	259	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and PA	55	281	257	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and PA	56	282	256	Harris
WI, AZ, PA and NC	56	282	256	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI	58	284	254	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC	58	284	254	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and NC	58	284	254	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC	59	285	253	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA	61	287	251	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and PA	61	287	251	Harris
AZ, MI, PA and NC	61	287	251	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA	62	288	250	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC	62	288	250	Harris
AZ, GA, PA and NC	62	288	250	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC	64	290	248	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA	67	293	245	Harris
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC	67	293	245	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC	68	294	244	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	68	294	244	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	71	297	241	Harris
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	71	297	241	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	72	298	240	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	74	300	238	Harris
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	78	304	234	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	83	309	229	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	87	313	225	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	93	319	219	Harris

Trump wins

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
AZ	11	237	301	Trump
NV and AZ	17	243	295	Trump
WI and AZ	21	247	291	Trump
AZ and MI	26	252	286	Trump
AZ and GA	27	253	285	Trump
AZ and NC	27	253	285	Trump
NV, WI and AZ	27	253	285	Trump
AZ and PA	30	256	282	Trump
NV, AZ and MI	32	258	280	Trump
NV, AZ and GA	33	259	279	Trump
NV, AZ and NC	33	259	279	Trump
NV, AZ and PA	36	262	276	Trump
WI, AZ and MI	36	262	276	Trump
WI, AZ and GA	37	263	275	Trump
WI, AZ and NC	37	263	275	Trump
WI, AZ and PA	40	266	272	Trump
NV, WI, AZ and MI	42	268	270	Trump
AZ, GA and MI	42	268	270	Trump
AZ, MI and NC	42	268	270	Trump

Harris wins without Arizona

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
WI, MI and PA	44	270	268	Harris
WI, GA and PA	45	271	267	Harris
WI, PA and NC	45	271	267	Harris
NV, WI, GA and MI	47	273	265	Harris
NV, WI, MI and NC	47	273	265	Harris
GA, MI and NC	47	273	265	Harris
NV, WI, GA and NC	48	274	264	Harris
NV, WI, MI and PA	50	276	262	Harris
GA, MI and PA	50	276	262	Harris
MI, PA and NC	50	276	262	Harris
NV, WI, GA and PA	51	277	261	Harris
NV, WI, PA and NC	51	277	261	Harris
GA, PA and NC	51	277	261	Harris
NV, GA, MI and NC	53	279	259	Harris
NV, GA, MI and PA	56	282	256	Harris
NV, MI, PA and NC	56	282	256	Harris
NV, GA, PA and NC	57	283	255	Harris
WI, GA, MI and NC	57	283	255	Harris
WI, GA, MI and PA	60	286	252	Harris
WI, MI, PA and NC	60	286	252	Harris
WI, GA, PA and NC	61	287	251	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC	63	289	249	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA	66	292	246	Harris
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC	66	292	246	Harris
GA, MI, PA and NC	66	292	246	Harris
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC	67	293	245	Harris
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC	72	298	240	Harris
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	76	302	236	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	82	308	230	Harris

State facts

Electoral votes: 11
2020: Biden
2016: Trump
2020 turnout: 3,333,829
2020 margin: 10,457
2022 turnout (governor): 2,560,665
Governor: Katie Hobbs (D)
Senator up for election: Open seat
Senate: D (1) I(1)
House: D (3) R (6)
State House: R (16) D (14)
State House 2024 election: All seats (incumbents can be term limited)
State Senate: R (16) D (14)
State Senate 2024 election: All seats (incumbents can be term limited)
Secretary of State: Adrian Fontes (D)
SoS website
Polls close: 7 pm Mountain
Mail-in voting: Yes
Early in-person voting: Yes

2022 demographcis

Label (GROUPING)/th>	AZ
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
Total population	7,359,197
One race	80.6%
Two races	18.5%
Three races	0.8%
Four or more races	0.1%
SEX AND AGE
Total population	7,359,197
Male	50.0%
Female	50.0%
Under 5 years	5.3%
5 to 17 years	16.2%
18 to 24 years	9.8%
25 to 34 years	13.8%
35 to 44 years	12.6%
45 to 54 years	11.6%
55 to 64 years	11.8%
65 to 74 years	10.6%
75 years and over	8.2%
Median age (years)	38.8
18 years and over	78.4%
21 years and over	74.5%
62 years and over	22.5%
65 years and over	18.8%
Under 18 years	1,587,603
Male	51.1%
Female	48.9%
18 years and over	5,771,594
Male	49.7%
Female	50.3%
18 to 34 years	1,736,629
Male	51.9%
Female	48.1%
35 to 64 years	2,653,011
Male	50.2%
Female	49.8%
65 years and over	1,381,954
Male	46.0%
Female	54.0%
RELATIONSHIP
Population in households	7,204,265
Householder or spouse	58.0%
Unmarried partner	3.3%
Child	27.8%
Other relatives	7.4%
Other nonrelatives	3.5%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
Households	2,850,377
Family households	64.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	25.2%
Married-couple family	46.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	16.6%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	11.8%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	5.8%
Nonfamily households	35.3%
Male householder	16.9%
Living alone	12.6%
Not living alone	4.4%
Female householder	18.4%
Living alone	14.6%
Not living alone	3.8%
Average household size	2.53
Average family size	3.10
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over	6,063,874
Now married, except separated	47.4%
Widowed	5.3%
Divorced	11.4%
Separated	1.4%
Never married	34.5%
Male 15 years and over	3,017,075
Now married, except separated	48.3%
Widowed	2.7%
Divorced	9.9%
Separated	1.2%
Never married	37.9%
Female 15 years and over	3,046,799
Now married, except separated	46.5%
Widowed	7.9%
Divorced	12.9%
Separated	1.6%
Never married	31.1%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school	1,720,168
Nursery school, preschool	4.2%
Kindergarten	4.8%
Elementary school (grades 1-8)	41.4%
High school (grades 9-12)	23.0%
College or graduate school	26.6%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school	858,679
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	70.8%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	24.7%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school	861,489
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	67.8%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	28.4%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over	5,053,656
Less than high school diploma	10.8%
High school graduate (includes equivalency)	23.8%
Some college or associate's degree	32.4%
Bachelor's degree	20.4%
Graduate or professional degree	12.5%
High school graduate or higher	89.2%
Male, high school graduate or higher	88.9%
Female, high school graduate or higher	89.4%
Bachelor's degree or higher	33.0%
Male, bachelor's degree or higher	32.7%
Female, bachelor's degree or higher	33.2%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years	1,680,785
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	86,548
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	30,022
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months	34.7%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over	4,546,407
Grandparents living with grandchild(ren)	3.4%
Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren	31.3%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over	5,747,509
Civilian veteran	7.9%
DISABILITY STATUS
Total civilian noninstitutionalized population	7,251,924
With a disability	13.6%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years	1,585,268
With a disability	5.1%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years	4,304,458
With a disability	10.9%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older	1,362,198
With a disability	31.9%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over	7,285,247
Same house	86.0%
Different house in the U.S.	13.4%
Same county	7.9%
Different county	5.5%
Same state	1.6%
Different state	3.9%
Abroad	0.6%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
Native	6,396,509
Male	50.2%
Female	49.8%
Foreign born	962,688
Male	48.6%
Female	51.4%
Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen	477,730
Male	46.8%
Female	53.2%
Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen	484,958
Male	50.4%
Female	49.6%
Population born outside the United States	962,688
Entered 2010 or later	27.7%
Entered 2000 to 2009	22.7%
Entered before 2000	49.6%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea	962,688
Europe	8.0%
Asia	21.9%
Africa	4.1%
Oceania	0.5%
Latin America	61.7%
Northern America	3.7%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over	6,965,784
English only	73.8%
Language other than English	26.2%
Speak English less than "very well"	8.2%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over	5,961,733
In labor force	60.7%
Civilian labor force	60.3%
Employed	57.7%
Unemployed	2.6%
Unemployment Rate	4.3%
Armed Forces	0.4%
Not in labor force	39.3%
Females 16 years and over	2,995,623
In labor force	55.5%
Civilian labor force	55.4%
Employed	52.9%
Unemployed	2.5%
Unemployment Rate	4.5%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over	3,402,927
Car, truck, or van - drove alone	66.1%
Car, truck, or van - carpooled	9.8%
Public transportation (excluding taxicab)	0.8%
Walked	1.7%
Other means	2.4%
Worked from home	19.2%
Mean travel time to work (minutes)	24.9
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	3,441,676
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	40.9%
Service occupations	17.1%
Sales and office occupations	22.3%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	8.8%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	10.9%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over	1,855,786
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	37.3%
Service occupations	15.3%
Sales and office occupations	17.0%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	15.5%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	15.0%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over	1,585,890
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	45.1%
Service occupations	19.2%
Sales and office occupations	28.6%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	0.9%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	6.1%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	3,441,676
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining	1.4%
Construction	7.7%
Manufacturing	7.5%
Wholesale trade	1.9%
Retail trade	12.2%
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities	6.1%
Information	1.4%
Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing	8.9%
Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services	12.5%
Educational services, and health care and social assistance	21.4%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services	9.6%
Other services (except public administration)	4.6%
Public administration	4.8%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	3,441,676
Private wage and salary workers	80.3%
Government workers	13.6%
Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business	5.8%
Unpaid family workers	0.2%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
Households	2,850,377
Median household income (dollars)	74,568
With earnings	75.2%
Mean earnings (dollars)	102,494
With Social Security income	33.4%
Mean Social Security income (dollars)	23,704
With Supplemental Security Income	4.0%
Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars)	10,678
With cash public assistance income	1.9%
Mean cash public assistance income (dollars)	3,724
With retirement income	26.7%
Mean retirement income (dollars)	31,251
With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits	10.3%
Families	1,843,530
Median family income (dollars)	88,679
Married-couple family	72.3%
Median income (dollars)	103,182
Male householder, no spouse present, family	9.4%
Median income (dollars)	64,779
Female householder, no husband present, family	18.3%
Median income (dollars)	51,649
Individuals	7,359,197
Per capita income (dollars)	39,819
With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	1,478,889
Female	1,080,442
Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	81,123
Female	64,020
Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
Male	57,628
Female	50,126
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
Civilian noninstitutionalized population	7,251,924
With private health insurance	63.9%
With public coverage	38.3%
No health insurance coverage	10.3%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
All families	8.9%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	13.3%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	11.8%
Married-couple family	5.6%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	7.3%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	5.5%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	20.9%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	29.3%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	31.1%
All people	12.5%
Under 18 years	15.8%
Related children of the householder under 18 years	15.5%
Related children of the householder under 5 years	17.7%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years	14.7%
18 years and over	11.5%
18 to 64 years	11.9%
65 years and over	10.4%
People in families	9.8%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over	22.7%
HOUSING TENURE
Occupied housing units	2,850,377
Owner-occupied housing units	67.4%
Renter-occupied housing units	32.6%
Average household size of owner-occupied unit	2.59
Average household size of renter-occupied unit	2.39
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
Occupied housing units	2,850,377
1-unit, detached or attached	71.4%
2 to 4 units	4.4%
5 or more units	16.0%
Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc.	8.2%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
Occupied housing units	2,850,377
Built 2020 or later	2.7%
Built 2010 to 2019	12.6%
Built 2000 to 2009	23.2%
Built 1980 to 1999	32.2%
Built 1960 to 1979	21.4%
Built 1940 to 1959	6.6%
Built 1939 or earlier	1.3%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
Occupied housing units	2,850,377
None	5.1%
1 or more	94.9%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
Occupied housing units	2,850,377
Gas	35.8%
Electricity	60.2%
All other fuels	3.0%
No fuel used	1.0%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
Occupied housing units	2,850,377
No telephone service available	1.3%
1.01 or more occupants per room	4.5%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed)	1,180,749
Less than 30 percent	73.7%
30 percent or more	26.3%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
Owner-occupied housing units	1,921,746
Median value (dollars)	402,800
Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars)	1,616
Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars)	468
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed)	867,455
Less than 30 percent	47.2%
30 percent or more	52.8%
GROSS RENT
Occupied units paying rent	887,809
Median gross rent (dollars)	1,450
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
Total households	2,850,377
With a computer	96.4%
With a broadband Internet subscription	91.1%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Terms

Median: Half of the random samples have probabilities greater than and half less than the median.
Mean: The average of the 10,000 random samples constructed. It coincides with the Biden Proportion in the table above.
Mode: The probability that occurs most often.
q025: The value below which 2.5% of the probabilities occur.
q975: The value below which 97.5% of the probabilities occur.
MCSE: Measures the precision of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates by quantifying the variability due to finite sampling. Smaller values indicate better precision. Values close to zero indicate that little of the variability in the estimate arises from using MCMC.
Rhat: Assesses the convergence of MCMC chains by comparing within-chain and between-chain variances. Values close to 1 indicate convergence.

These diagnostics are used to assess usefulness of models using MCMC methods in determining whether the MCMC chains have run long enough to provide accurate and stable estimates of the posterior distributions.

The density plots show the number of observations on the \(y\)-axis and the probabilities on the \(x\)-axis. The shaded area in the center shows the credible interval within which 95% of the probabilities fall. The unshaded areas show that the proportion of the votes are likely to be either less than or greater than the credible interval.