Model results

Mid-October assessment

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.505	0.505	0.5083	0.4912	0.5177	0.4983	0.5118

The model shows Harris leading, with 92.25% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through late September. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

Late September assessment

The model shows Harris leading, with 92.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a very strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through late September. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.5049	0.5049	0.5049	0.4889	0.5178	0.4982	0.5117

Early September assessment

The model shows Harris leading, with 81.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through early September. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.5039	0.5039	0.505	0.4871	0.5212	0.4951	0.5124

August assessment after convention

The model shows Harris leading, with 82.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a very strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through late August. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975

August assessment before convention

The model shows Harris leading, with 73.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a very strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through early August. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

The result is influenced by the beginning "Bayesian prior," an assumption that at the end of July, each candidate had an equal chance of leading. The relative strength of that beginning assumption and cumulative polling results will change as more results are added.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.5042	0.5042	0.5034	0.4788	0.5285	0.4915	0.5166

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Michigan. Not included is the trivial case where one candidate takes all of the swing states. Michigan is represented in 46 of the 128 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris.

Harris wins

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
WI, MI and PA	44	270	268	Harris
AZ, MI and PA	45	271	267	Harris
NV, WI, GA and MI	47	273	265	Harris
NV, WI, MI and NC	47	273	265	Harris
GA, MI and NC	47	273	265	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and MI	48	274	264	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and NC	48	274	264	Harris
NV, WI, MI and PA	50	276	262	Harris
GA, MI and PA	50	276	262	Harris
MI, PA and NC	50	276	262	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and PA	51	277	261	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and MI	52	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and NC	52	278	260	Harris
NV, GA, MI and NC	53	279	259	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and PA	55	281	257	Harris
NV, GA, MI and PA	56	282	256	Harris
NV, MI, PA and NC	56	282	256	Harris
WI, GA, MI and NC	57	283	255	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI	58	284	254	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC	58	284	254	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and NC	58	284	254	Harris
WI, GA, MI and PA	60	286	252	Harris
WI, MI, PA and NC	60	286	252	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA	61	287	251	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and PA	61	287	251	Harris
AZ, MI, PA and NC	61	287	251	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC	63	289	249	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC	64	290	248	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA	66	292	246	Harris
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC	66	292	246	Harris
GA, MI, PA and NC	66	292	246	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA	67	293	245	Harris
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC	67	293	245	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	68	294	244	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	71	297	241	Harris
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	71	297	241	Harris
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC	72	298	240	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	74	300	238	Harris
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	76	302	236	Harris
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	82	308	230	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	83	309	229	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	87	313	225	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	93	319	219	Harris

Trump wins

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
MI	15	241	297	Trump
NV and MI	21	247	291	Trump
WI and MI	25	251	287	Trump
AZ and MI	26	252	286	Trump
GA and MI	31	257	281	Trump
MI and NC	31	257	281	Trump
NV, WI and MI	31	257	281	Trump
NV, AZ and MI	32	258	280	Trump
MI and PA	34	260	278	Trump
WI, AZ and MI	36	262	276	Trump
NV, GA and MI	37	263	275	Trump
NV, MI and NC	37	263	275	Trump
NV, MI and PA	40	266	272	Trump
WI, GA and MI	41	267	271	Trump
WI, MI and NC	41	267	271	Trump
NV, WI, AZ and MI	42	268	270	Trump
AZ, GA and MI	42	268	270	Trump
AZ, MI and NC	42	268	270	Trump

Harris wins without Michigan

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
WI, GA and PA	45	271	267	Harris
WI, PA and NC	45	271	267	Harris
NV, WI, AZ and PA	46	272	266	Harris
AZ, GA and PA	46	272	266	Harris
AZ, PA and NC	46	272	266	Harris
NV, WI, GA and NC	48	274	264	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and NC	49	275	263	Harris
NV, WI, GA and PA	51	277	261	Harris
NV, WI, PA and NC	51	277	261	Harris
GA, PA and NC	51	277	261	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and PA	52	278	260	Harris
NV, AZ, PA and NC	52	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and NC	53	279	259	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and PA	56	282	256	Harris
WI, AZ, PA and NC	56	282	256	Harris
NV, GA, PA and NC	57	283	255	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC	59	285	253	Harris
WI, GA, PA and NC	61	287	251	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA	62	288	250	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC	62	288	250	Harris
AZ, GA, PA and NC	62	288	250	Harris
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC	67	293	245	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC	68	294	244	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	72	298	240	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	78	304	234	Harris

Michigan facts

• Electoral votes: 15

• 2020: Biden

• 2016: Trump

• 2020 turnout: 5,453,892

• 2020 margin: 154,188

• 2022 turnout (governor): 4,391,140

• Governor: Gretchen Widmer (D)

• Senator up for election: Debbie Stabenow (D)

• Senate: D (2)

• House: D (7) R (6)

• State House: D (56) R (54)

• State House 2024 election: All seats

• State Senate: R (20) D (18)

• State Senate 2024 election: None

• Secretary of State: Jocelyn Benson (D)

• SoS website

• Polls close: 8 pm Eastern

• Mail-in voting: Yes

• Early in-person voting: Yes

Michigan demographics

Label (GROUPING)	MI
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
Total population	10,034,118
One race	92.9%
Two races	6.7%
Three races	0.4%
Four or more races	0.0%
SEX AND AGE
Total population	10,034,118
Male	49.6%
Female	50.4%
Under 5 years	5.3%
5 to 17 years	15.6%
18 to 24 years	9.5%
25 to 34 years	13.1%
35 to 44 years	12.2%
45 to 54 years	12.0%
55 to 64 years	13.6%
65 to 74 years	11.2%
75 years and over	7.5%
Median age (years)	40.3
18 years and over	79.0%
21 years and over	75.0%
62 years and over	23.0%
65 years and over	18.7%
Under 18 years	2,106,228
Male	51.3%
Female	48.7%
18 years and over	7,927,890
Male	49.2%
Female	50.8%
18 to 34 years	2,264,311
Male	51.2%
Female	48.8%
35 to 64 years	3,786,017
Male	49.9%
Female	50.1%
65 years and over	1,877,562
Male	45.2%
Female	54.8%
RELATIONSHIP
Population in households	9,821,154
Householder or spouse	60.6%
Unmarried partner	3.1%
Child	28.3%
Other relatives	5.1%
Other nonrelatives	2.8%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
Households	4,089,794
Family households	62.3%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	24.0%
Married-couple family	45.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	16.0%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	11.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	5.8%
Nonfamily households	37.7%
Male householder	18.1%
Living alone	14.3%
Not living alone	3.8%
Female householder	19.6%
Living alone	16.3%
Not living alone	3.3%
Average household size	2.40
Average family size	3.02
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over	8,310,382
Now married, except separated	47.4%
Widowed	5.9%
Divorced	11.2%
Separated	1.1%
Never married	34.4%
Male 15 years and over	4,095,300
Now married, except separated	48.6%
Widowed	2.9%
Divorced	10.0%
Separated	1.0%
Never married	37.5%
Female 15 years and over	4,215,082
Now married, except separated	46.2%
Widowed	8.8%
Divorced	12.4%
Separated	1.2%
Never married	31.4%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school	2,291,873
Nursery school, preschool	5.8%
Kindergarten	5.1%
Elementary school (grades 1-8)	40.4%
High school (grades 9-12)	22.2%
College or graduate school	26.5%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school	1,135,923
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	70.1%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	23.6%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school	1,155,950
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	65.3%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	29.3%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over	6,978,952
Less than high school diploma	8.2%
High school graduate (includes equivalency)	28.1%
Some college or associate's degree	31.6%
Bachelor's degree	19.5%
Graduate or professional degree	12.6%
High school graduate or higher	91.8%
Male, high school graduate or higher	91.2%
Female, high school graduate or higher	92.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher	32.1%
Male, bachelor's degree or higher	31.2%
Female, bachelor's degree or higher	33.0%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years	2,235,671
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	111,639
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	36,943
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months	33.1%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over	6,330,291
Grandparents living with grandchild(ren)	2.4%
Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren	30.7%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over	7,923,161
Civilian veteran	5.8%
DISABILITY STATUS
Total civilian noninstitutionalized population	9,929,781
With a disability	14.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years	2,103,940
With a disability	5.1%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years	5,987,728
With a disability	12.2%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older	1,838,113
With a disability	31.9%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over	9,936,710
Same house	88.4%
Different house in the U.S.	11.1%
Same county	6.1%
Different county	5.1%
Same state	3.5%
Different state	1.6%
Abroad	0.4%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
Native	9,338,915
Male	49.6%
Female	50.4%
Foreign born	695,203
Male	49.3%
Female	50.7%
Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen	396,976
Male	48.0%
Female	52.0%
Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen	298,227
Male	51.0%
Female	49.0%
Population born outside the United States	695,203
Entered 2010 or later	38.4%
Entered 2000 to 2009	21.6%
Entered before 2000	39.9%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea	695,203
Europe	16.7%
Asia	53.7%
Africa	5.7%
Oceania	0.4%
Latin America	18.7%
Northern America	4.8%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over	9,497,313
English only	89.8%
Language other than English	10.2%
Speak English less than "very well"	3.7%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over	8,179,427
In labor force	61.6%
Civilian labor force	61.5%
Employed	58.7%
Unemployed	2.9%
Unemployment Rate	4.6%
Armed Forces	0.1%
Not in labor force	38.4%
Females 16 years and over	4,152,360
In labor force	57.3%
Civilian labor force	57.2%
Employed	54.7%
Unemployed	2.6%
Unemployment Rate	4.5%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over	4,706,068
Car, truck, or van - drove alone	74.0%
Car, truck, or van - carpooled	7.9%
Public transportation (excluding taxicab)	0.8%
Walked	2.0%
Other means	1.6%
Worked from home	13.7%
Mean travel time to work (minutes)	24.2
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	4,800,228
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	40.6%
Service occupations	15.9%
Sales and office occupations	19.3%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	7.9%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	16.3%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over	2,530,898
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	37.0%
Service occupations	12.1%
Sales and office occupations	13.5%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	14.3%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	23.0%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over	2,269,330
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	44.7%
Service occupations	20.0%
Sales and office occupations	25.8%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	0.8%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	8.7%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	4,800,228
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining	1.1%
Construction	5.9%
Manufacturing	18.2%
Wholesale trade	1.9%
Retail trade	10.7%
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities	5.1%
Information	1.3%
Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing	5.8%
Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services	10.2%
Educational services, and health care and social assistance	23.0%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services	8.7%
Other services (except public administration)	4.5%
Public administration	3.5%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	4,800,228
Private wage and salary workers	83.1%
Government workers	11.4%
Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business	5.3%
Unpaid family workers	0.1%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
Households	4,089,794
Median household income (dollars)	66,986
With earnings	74.2%
Mean earnings (dollars)	94,540
With Social Security income	34.6%
Mean Social Security income (dollars)	23,068
With Supplemental Security Income	5.6%
Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars)	11,164
With cash public assistance income	2.5%
Mean cash public assistance income (dollars)	3,460
With retirement income	27.9%
Mean retirement income (dollars)	26,950
With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits	13.6%
Families	2,548,560
Median family income (dollars)	85,865
Married-couple family	73.3%
Median income (dollars)	102,076
Male householder, no spouse present, family	7.9%
Median income (dollars)	60,615
Female householder, no husband present, family	18.8%
Median income (dollars)	44,192
Individuals	10,034,118
Per capita income (dollars)	38,151
With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	1,938,740
Female	1,436,983
Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	81,467
Female	61,245
Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
Male	61,623
Female	49,665
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
Civilian noninstitutionalized population	9,929,781
With private health insurance	70.4%
With public coverage	41.0%
No health insurance coverage	4.5%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
All families	9.1%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	15.1%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	13.7%
Married-couple family	4.5%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	6.5%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	4.0%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	25.3%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	35.9%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	41.4%
All people	13.4%
Under 18 years	18.2%
Related children of the householder under 18 years	17.8%
Related children of the householder under 5 years	19.8%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years	17.1%
18 years and over	12.1%
18 to 64 years	12.8%
65 years and over	9.8%
People in families	10.2%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over	25.0%
HOUSING TENURE
Occupied housing units	4,089,794
Owner-occupied housing units	73.2%
Renter-occupied housing units	26.8%
Average household size of owner-occupied unit	2.52
Average household size of renter-occupied unit	2.08
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
Occupied housing units	4,089,794
1-unit, detached or attached	77.4%
2 to 4 units	4.6%
5 or more units	13.2%
Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc.	4.9%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
Occupied housing units	4,089,794
Built 2020 or later	0.9%
Built 2010 to 2019	5.6%
Built 2000 to 2009	10.5%
Built 1980 to 1999	21.9%
Built 1960 to 1979	26.5%
Built 1940 to 1959	20.9%
Built 1939 or earlier	13.7%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
Occupied housing units	4,089,794
None	6.9%
1 or more	93.1%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
Occupied housing units	4,089,794
Gas	83.4%
Electricity	12.3%
All other fuels	3.8%
No fuel used	0.5%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
Occupied housing units	4,089,794
No telephone service available	0.8%
1.01 or more occupants per room	1.6%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed)	1,724,683
Less than 30 percent	76.0%
30 percent or more	24.0%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
Owner-occupied housing units	2,991,685
Median value (dollars)	224,400
Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars)	1,435
Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars)	565
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed)	1,008,054
Less than 30 percent	49.2%
30 percent or more	50.8%
GROSS RENT
Occupied units paying rent	1,034,449
Median gross rent (dollars)	1,052
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
Total households	4,089,794
With a computer	95.5%
With a broadband Internet subscription	90.5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates