Michigan

  1. Final
  2. Scenarios
    1. Harris wins
    2. Trump wins
    3. Harris wins without Michigan
  3. Michigan facts
  4. Michigan demographics

Model results

Final

The model shows Harris leading by a lot, with 95.81% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a very strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through October 31. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median mean mode min max q025 q975
0.5049 0.5049 0.5043 0.4942 0.5154 0.4982 0.5117

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Michigan. Not included is the trivial case where one candidate takes all of the swing states. Michigan is represented in 46 of the 128 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris.

Harris wins

States won by Harris Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
WI, MI and PA 44 270 268 Harris
AZ, MI and PA 45 271 267 Harris
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 273 265 Harris
NV, WI, MI and NC 47 273 265 Harris
GA, MI and NC 47 273 265 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 274 264 Harris
NV, AZ, MI and NC 48 274 264 Harris
NV, WI, MI and PA 50 276 262 Harris
GA, MI and PA 50 276 262 Harris
MI, PA and NC 50 276 262 Harris
NV, AZ, MI and PA 51 277 261 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 278 260 Harris
WI, AZ, MI and NC 52 278 260 Harris
NV, GA, MI and NC 53 279 259 Harris
WI, AZ, MI and PA 55 281 257 Harris
NV, GA, MI and PA 56 282 256 Harris
NV, MI, PA and NC 56 282 256 Harris
WI, GA, MI and NC 57 283 255 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 284 254 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC 58 284 254 Harris
AZ, GA, MI and NC 58 284 254 Harris
WI, GA, MI and PA 60 286 252 Harris
WI, MI, PA and NC 60 286 252 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA 61 287 251 Harris
AZ, GA, MI and PA 61 287 251 Harris
AZ, MI, PA and NC 61 287 251 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC 63 289 249 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC 64 290 248 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA 66 292 246 Harris
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC 66 292 246 Harris
GA, MI, PA and NC 66 292 246 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA 67 293 245 Harris
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC 67 293 245 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 68 294 244 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 71 297 241 Harris
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 71 297 241 Harris
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC 72 298 240 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 74 300 238 Harris
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 76 302 236 Harris
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 82 308 230 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 83 309 229 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 87 313 225 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 93 319 219 Harris

Trump wins

States won by Harris Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
MI 15 241 297 Trump
NV and MI 21 247 291 Trump
WI and MI 25 251 287 Trump
AZ and MI 26 252 286 Trump
GA and MI 31 257 281 Trump
MI and NC 31 257 281 Trump
NV, WI and MI 31 257 281 Trump
NV, AZ and MI 32 258 280 Trump
MI and PA 34 260 278 Trump
WI, AZ and MI 36 262 276 Trump
NV, GA and MI 37 263 275 Trump
NV, MI and NC 37 263 275 Trump
NV, MI and PA 40 266 272 Trump
WI, GA and MI 41 267 271 Trump
WI, MI and NC 41 267 271 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and MI 42 268 270 Trump
AZ, GA and MI 42 268 270 Trump
AZ, MI and NC 42 268 270 Trump

Harris wins without Michigan

States won by Harris Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
WI, GA and PA 45 271 267 Harris
WI, PA and NC 45 271 267 Harris
NV, WI, AZ and PA 46 272 266 Harris
AZ, GA and PA 46 272 266 Harris
AZ, PA and NC 46 272 266 Harris
NV, WI, GA and NC 48 274 264 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and NC 49 275 263 Harris
NV, WI, GA and PA 51 277 261 Harris
NV, WI, PA and NC 51 277 261 Harris
GA, PA and NC 51 277 261 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and PA 52 278 260 Harris
NV, AZ, PA and NC 52 278 260 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and NC 53 279 259 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and PA 56 282 256 Harris
WI, AZ, PA and NC 56 282 256 Harris
NV, GA, PA and NC 57 283 255 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC 59 285 253 Harris
WI, GA, PA and NC 61 287 251 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA 62 288 250 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC 62 288 250 Harris
AZ, GA, PA and NC 62 288 250 Harris
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC 67 293 245 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC 68 294 244 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 72 298 240 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 78 304 234 Harris

Michigan facts

  • Electoral votes: 15

  • 2020: Biden

  • 2016: Trump

  • 2020 turnout: 5,453,892

  • 2020 margin: 154,188

  • 2022 turnout (governor): 4,391,140

  • Governor: Gretchen Widmer (D)

  • Senator up for election: Debbie Stabenow (D)

  • Senate: D (2)

  • House: D (7) R (6)

  • State House: D (56) R (54)

  • State House 2024 election: All seats

  • State Senate: R (20) D (18)

  • State Senate 2024 election: None

  • Secretary of State: Jocelyn Benson (D)

  • SoS website

  • Polls close: 8 pm Eastern

  • Mail-in voting: Yes

  • Early in-person voting: Yes

Michigan demographics

Label (GROUPING) MI
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
    Total population 10,034,118
        One race 92.9%
        Two races 6.7%
        Three races 0.4%
        Four or more races 0.0%
SEX AND AGE
    Total population 10,034,118
        Male 49.6%
        Female 50.4%
Under 5 years 5.3%
5 to 17 years 15.6%
18 to 24 years 9.5%
25 to 34 years 13.1%
35 to 44 years 12.2%
45 to 54 years 12.0%
55 to 64 years 13.6%
65 to 74 years 11.2%
75 years and over 7.5%
        Median age (years) 40.3
18 years and over 79.0%
21 years and over 75.0%
62 years and over 23.0%
65 years and over 18.7%
Under 18 years 2,106,228
            Male 51.3%
            Female 48.7%
18 years and over 7,927,890
            Male 49.2%
            Female 50.8%
18 to 34 years 2,264,311
            Male 51.2%
            Female 48.8%
35 to 64 years 3,786,017
            Male 49.9%
            Female 50.1%
65 years and over 1,877,562
            Male 45.2%
            Female 54.8%
RELATIONSHIP
    Population in households 9,821,154
        Householder or spouse 60.6%
        Unmarried partner 3.1%
        Child 28.3%
        Other relatives 5.1%
        Other nonrelatives 2.8%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
    Households 4,089,794
        Family households 62.3%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 24.0%
        Married-couple family 45.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 16.0%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 11.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 5.8%
        Nonfamily households 37.7%
            Male householder 18.1%
                Living alone 14.3%
                Not living alone 3.8%
            Female householder 19.6%
                Living alone 16.3%
                Not living alone 3.3%
        Average household size 2.40
        Average family size 3.02
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over 8,310,382
        Now married, except separated 47.4%
        Widowed 5.9%
        Divorced 11.2%
        Separated 1.1%
        Never married 34.4%
Male 15 years and over 4,095,300
        Now married, except separated 48.6%
        Widowed 2.9%
        Divorced 10.0%
        Separated 1.0%
        Never married 37.5%
Female 15 years and over 4,215,082
        Now married, except separated 46.2%
        Widowed 8.8%
        Divorced 12.4%
        Separated 1.2%
        Never married 31.4%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 2,291,873
        Nursery school, preschool 5.8%
        Kindergarten 5.1%
Elementary school (grades 1-8) 40.4%
High school (grades 9-12) 22.2%
        College or graduate school 26.5%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,135,923
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 70.1%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 23.6%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,155,950
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 65.3%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 29.3%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over 6,978,952
        Less than high school diploma 8.2%
        High school graduate (includes equivalency) 28.1%
        Some college or associate's degree 31.6%
        Bachelor's degree 19.5%
        Graduate or professional degree 12.6%
        High school graduate or higher 91.8%
            Male, high school graduate or higher 91.2%
            Female, high school graduate or higher 92.5%
        Bachelor's degree or higher 32.1%
            Male, bachelor's degree or higher 31.2%
            Female, bachelor's degree or higher 33.0%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years 2,235,671
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 111,639
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 36,943
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months 33.1%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over 6,330,291
        Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) 2.4%
            Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren 30.7%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over 7,923,161
        Civilian veteran 5.8%
DISABILITY STATUS
    Total civilian noninstitutionalized population 9,929,781
        With a disability 14.3%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years 2,103,940
        With a disability 5.1%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years 5,987,728
        With a disability 12.2%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older 1,838,113
        With a disability 31.9%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over 9,936,710
        Same house 88.4%
        Different house in the U.S. 11.1%
            Same county 6.1%
            Different county 5.1%
                Same state 3.5%
                Different state 1.6%
        Abroad 0.4%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
    Native 9,338,915
        Male 49.6%
        Female 50.4%
    Foreign born 695,203
        Male 49.3%
        Female 50.7%
        Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen 396,976
            Male 48.0%
            Female 52.0%
        Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen 298,227
            Male 51.0%
            Female 49.0%
    Population born outside the United States 695,203
Entered 2010 or later 38.4%
Entered 2000 to 2009 21.6%
Entered before 2000 39.9%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
    Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea 695,203
        Europe 16.7%
        Asia 53.7%
        Africa 5.7%
        Oceania 0.4%
        Latin America 18.7%
        Northern America 4.8%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over 9,497,313
        English only 89.8%
        Language other than English 10.2%
            Speak English less than "very well" 3.7%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over 8,179,427
        In labor force 61.6%
            Civilian labor force 61.5%
                Employed 58.7%
                Unemployed 2.9%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.6%
            Armed Forces 0.1%
        Not in labor force 38.4%
Females 16 years and over 4,152,360
        In labor force 57.3%
            Civilian labor force 57.2%
                Employed 54.7%
                Unemployed 2.6%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.5%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 4,706,068
        Car, truck, or van - drove alone 74.0%
        Car, truck, or van - carpooled 7.9%
        Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 0.8%
        Walked 2.0%
        Other means 1.6%
        Worked from home 13.7%
        Mean travel time to work (minutes) 24.2
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 4,800,228
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 40.6%
        Service occupations 15.9%
        Sales and office occupations 19.3%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 7.9%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 16.3%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,530,898
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 37.0%
        Service occupations 12.1%
        Sales and office occupations 13.5%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 14.3%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 23.0%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over 2,269,330
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 44.7%
        Service occupations 20.0%
        Sales and office occupations 25.8%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 0.8%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 8.7%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 4,800,228
        Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 1.1%
        Construction 5.9%
        Manufacturing 18.2%
        Wholesale trade 1.9%
        Retail trade 10.7%
        Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 5.1%
        Information 1.3%
        Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 5.8%
        Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 10.2%
        Educational services, and health care and social assistance 23.0%
        Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 8.7%
        Other services (except public administration) 4.5%
        Public administration 3.5%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 4,800,228
        Private wage and salary workers 83.1%
        Government workers 11.4%
        Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 5.3%
        Unpaid family workers 0.1%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
    Households 4,089,794
        Median household income (dollars) 66,986
        With earnings 74.2%
            Mean earnings (dollars) 94,540
        With Social Security income 34.6%
            Mean Social Security income (dollars) 23,068
        With Supplemental Security Income 5.6%
            Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 11,164
        With cash public assistance income 2.5%
            Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 3,460
        With retirement income 27.9%
            Mean retirement income (dollars) 26,950
        With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits 13.6%
    Families 2,548,560
        Median family income (dollars) 85,865
            Married-couple family 73.3%
        Median income (dollars) 102,076
            Male householder, no spouse present, family 7.9%
        Median income (dollars) 60,615
            Female householder, no husband present, family 18.8%
        Median income (dollars) 44,192
    Individuals 10,034,118
        Per capita income (dollars) 38,151
        With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 1,938,740
            Female 1,436,983
        Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 81,467
            Female 61,245
        Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 61,623
            Female 49,665
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
    Civilian noninstitutionalized population 9,929,781
        With private health insurance 70.4%
        With public coverage 41.0%
        No health insurance coverage 4.5%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
    All families 9.1%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 15.1%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 13.7%
        Married-couple family 4.5%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 6.5%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 4.0%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 25.3%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 35.9%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 41.4%
    All people 13.4%
Under 18 years 18.2%
Related children of the householder under 18 years 17.8%
Related children of the householder under 5 years 19.8%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years 17.1%
18 years and over 12.1%
18 to 64 years 12.8%
65 years and over 9.8%
        People in families 10.2%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 25.0%
HOUSING TENURE
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
        Owner-occupied housing units 73.2%
        Renter-occupied housing units 26.8%
        Average household size of owner-occupied unit 2.52
        Average household size of renter-occupied unit 2.08
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
1-unit, detached or attached 77.4%
2 to 4 units 4.6%
5 or more units 13.2%
        Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. 4.9%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
Built 2020 or later 0.9%
Built 2010 to 2019 5.6%
Built 2000 to 2009 10.5%
Built 1980 to 1999 21.9%
Built 1960 to 1979 26.5%
Built 1940 to 1959 20.9%
Built 1939 or earlier 13.7%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
        None 6.9%
1 or more 93.1%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
        Gas 83.4%
        Electricity 12.3%
        All other fuels 3.8%
        No fuel used 0.5%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
    Occupied housing units 4,089,794
        No telephone service available 0.8%
1.01 or more occupants per room 1.6%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) 1,724,683
Less than 30 percent 76.0%
30 percent or more 24.0%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
    Owner-occupied housing units 2,991,685
        Median value (dollars) 224,400
        Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) 1,435
        Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) 565
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) 1,008,054
Less than 30 percent 49.2%
30 percent or more 50.8%
GROSS RENT
    Occupied units paying rent 1,034,449
        Median gross rent (dollars) 1,052
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
    Total households 4,089,794
        With a computer 95.5%
        With a broadband Internet subscription 90.5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: November 03, 2024.