Model results

Late October assessment

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.5015	0.5015	0.5	0.4913	0.5125	0.4953	0.5076

The model shows Harris leading, with 70.78% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through October 25. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

Mid October assessment

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.5016	0.5016	0.5015	0.4915	0.513	0.4961	0.507

The model shows Harris leading, with 71.57% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through mid-October. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

Late September assessment

The model shows Harris leading, with 70.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a very strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through late September. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.5015	0.5016	0.5015	0.4903	0.5126	0.4962	0.507

Early September assessment

The model shows Harris nearly tied, with 48.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a neutral position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through early September. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.4998	0.4998	0.4979	0.4828	0.5158	0.4922	0.5074

August assessment after convention

The model shows Harris leading, with 53.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through late August. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.5004	0.5004	0.5011	0.4846	0.5163	0.492	0.509

August assessment before convention

The model shows Harris leading, with 73.0% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through early August. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

The result is influenced by the beginning "Bayesian prior," an assumption that at the end of July, each candidate had an equal chance of leading. The relative strength of that beginning assumption and cumulative polling results will change as more results are added.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.5031	0.5031	0.5001	0.4838	0.5223	0.4925	0.5137

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is represented in 51 of the 128 possible outcomes, 70% of the winning combin ations for Harris. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania provides support to many of the successful outcomes.

Harris wins

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris Votes	Trump Votes	Result
WI, MI and PA	44	270	268	Harris
WI, GA and PA	45	271	267	Harris
WI, PA and NC	45	271	267	Harris
AZ, MI and PA	45	271	267	Harris
NV, WI, AZ and PA	46	272	266	Harris
AZ, GA and PA	46	272	266	Harris
AZ, PA and NC	46	272	266	Harris
NV, WI, MI and PA	50	276	262	Harris
GA, MI and PA	50	276	262	Harris
MI, PA and NC	50	276	262	Harris
NV, WI, GA and PA	51	277	261	Harris
NV, WI, PA and NC	51	277	261	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and PA	51	277	261	Harris
GA, PA and NC	51	277	261	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and PA	52	278	260	Harris
NV, AZ, PA and NC	52	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and PA	55	281	257	Harris
NV, GA, MI and PA	56	282	256	Harris
NV, MI, PA and NC	56	282	256	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and PA	56	282	256	Harris
WI, AZ, PA and NC	56	282	256	Harris
NV, GA, PA and NC	57	283	255	Harris
WI, GA, MI and PA	60	286	252	Harris
WI, MI, PA and NC	60	286	252	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA	61	287	251	Harris
WI, GA, PA and NC	61	287	251	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and PA	61	287	251	Harris
AZ, MI, PA and NC	61	287	251	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA	62	288	250	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC	62	288	250	Harris
AZ, GA, PA and NC	62	288	250	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA	66	292	246	Harris
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC	66	292	246	Harris
GA, MI, PA and NC	66	292	246	Harris
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC	67	293	245	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA	67	293	245	Harris
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC	67	293	245	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC	68	294	244	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	71	297	241	Harris
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	71	297	241	Harris
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC	72	298	240	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	72	298	240	Harris
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	76	302	236	Harris
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	78	304	234	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	82	308	230	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	83	309	229	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	87	313	225	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	93	319	219	Harris

Trump wins

State	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
PA	19	245	293	Trump
NV and PA	25	251	287	Trump
WI and PA	29	255	283	Trump
AZ and PA	30	256	282	Trump
MI and PA	34	260	278	Trump
GA and PA	35	261	277	Trump
PA and NC	35	261	277	Trump
NV, WI and PA	35	261	277	Trump
NV, AZ and PA	36	262	276	Trump
NV, MI and PA	40	266	272	Trump
WI, AZ and PA	40	266	272	Trump
NV, GA and PA	41	267	271	Trump
NV, PA and NC	41	267	271	Trump

Harris wins without Pennsylvania

States	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
NV, WI, GA and MI	47	273	265	Harris
NV, WI, MI and NC	47	273	265	Harris
GA, MI and NC	47	273	265	Harris
NV, WI, GA and NC	48	274	264	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and MI	48	274	264	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and NC	48	274	264	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and NC	49	275	263	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and MI	52	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and NC	52	278	260	Harris
NV, GA, MI and NC	53	279	259	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and NC	53	279	259	Harris
WI, GA, MI and NC	57	283	255	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI	58	284	254	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC	58	284	254	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and NC	58	284	254	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC	59	285	253	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC	63	289	249	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC	64	290	248	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	68	294	244	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	74	300	238	Harris

Pennsylvania facts

• Electoral votes: 19

• 2020: Biden

• 2016: Trump

• 2020 turnout: 6,835,903

• 2020 margin: 80,555

• 2022 turnout (governor): 5,366,179

• Governor: Josh Shapiro (D)

• Senator up for election: Bob Casey, Jr.(D)

• Senate: D (2)

• House: D (9) R (8)

• State House: D (102) R (100)

• State House 2024 election: All seats

• State Senate: R (28) D (22)

• State Senate 2024 election: R (20) D (17)

• Secretary of State: Al Schmidt (D) (SoS appointed by governor)

• SoS website

• Polls close: 8 pm Eastern

• Mail-in voting: Yes

• Early in-person voting: No

Pennsylvania demographics

Label (GROUPING)	PA
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
Total population	12,972,008
One race	92.8%
Two races	6.6%
Three races	0.5%
Four or more races	0.1%
SEX AND AGE
Total population	12,972,008
Male	49.3%
Female	50.7%
Under 5 years	5.2%
5 to 17 years	15.1%
18 to 24 years	9.2%
25 to 34 years	12.9%
35 to 44 years	12.5%
45 to 54 years	11.9%
55 to 64 years	13.6%
65 to 74 years	11.3%
75 years and over	8.3%
Median age (years)	40.9
18 years and over	79.8%
21 years and over	75.6%
62 years and over	23.9%
65 years and over	19.6%
Under 18 years	2,622,158
Male	51.1%
Female	48.9%
18 years and over	10,349,850
Male	48.9%
Female	51.1%
18 to 34 years	2,875,427
Male	50.8%
Female	49.2%
35 to 64 years	4,935,369
Male	50.0%
Female	50.0%
65 years and over	2,539,054
Male	44.5%
Female	55.5%
RELATIONSHIP
Population in households	12,540,001
Householder or spouse	61.8%
Unmarried partner	3.1%
Child	27.4%
Other relatives	5.3%
Other nonrelatives	2.4%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
Households	5,294,065
Family households	62.2%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	23.9%
Married-couple family	46.5%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	16.3%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	11.2%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	5.6%
Nonfamily households	37.8%
Male householder	17.3%
Living alone	13.7%
Not living alone	3.6%
Female householder	20.4%
Living alone	16.9%
Not living alone	3.5%
Average household size	2.37
Average family size	2.99
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over	10,822,275
Now married, except separated	48.1%
Widowed	6.3%
Divorced	9.6%
Separated	1.7%
Never married	34.4%
Male 15 years and over	5,300,790
Now married, except separated	50.0%
Widowed	2.9%
Divorced	8.5%
Separated	1.6%
Never married	37.1%
Female 15 years and over	5,521,485
Now married, except separated	46.2%
Widowed	9.6%
Divorced	10.6%
Separated	1.8%
Never married	31.8%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school	2,909,535
Nursery school, preschool	5.5%
Kindergarten	4.7%
Elementary school (grades 1-8)	40.3%
High school (grades 9-12)	21.4%
College or graduate school	28.0%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school	1,431,980
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	69.1%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	24.9%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school	1,477,555
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	63.9%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	31.1%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over	9,151,744
Less than high school diploma	7.8%
High school graduate (includes equivalency)	33.0%
Some college or associate's degree	24.1%
Bachelor's degree	20.8%
Graduate or professional degree	14.3%
High school graduate or higher	92.2%
Male, high school graduate or higher	91.8%
Female, high school graduate or higher	92.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher	35.1%
Male, bachelor's degree or higher	34.0%
Female, bachelor's degree or higher	36.1%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years	2,881,967
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	149,542
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	41,688
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months	27.9%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over	8,347,825
Grandparents living with grandchild(ren)	2.5%
Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren	31.1%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over	10,341,435
Civilian veteran	6.2%
DISABILITY STATUS
Total civilian noninstitutionalized population	12,789,843
With a disability	14.6%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years	2,618,106
With a disability	5.7%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years	7,714,886
With a disability	12.0%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older	2,456,851
With a disability	31.9%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over	12,845,436
Same house	89.3%
Different house in the U.S.	10.3%
Same county	5.7%
Different county	4.6%
Same state	2.5%
Different state	2.0%
Abroad	0.4%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
Native	11,993,835
Male	49.3%
Female	50.7%
Foreign born	978,173
Male	49.2%
Female	50.8%
Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen	552,582
Male	47.4%
Female	52.6%
Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen	425,591
Male	51.6%
Female	48.4%
Population born outside the United States	978,173
Entered 2010 or later	38.4%
Entered 2000 to 2009	23.7%
Entered before 2000	37.9%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea	978,173
Europe	16.6%
Asia	37.7%
Africa	9.1%
Oceania	0.3%
Latin America	34.4%
Northern America	1.9%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over	12,303,274
English only	87.7%
Language other than English	12.3%
Speak English less than "very well"	5.0%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over	10,660,341
In labor force	62.8%
Civilian labor force	62.8%
Employed	60.1%
Unemployed	2.7%
Unemployment Rate	4.3%
Armed Forces	0.1%
Not in labor force	37.2%
Females 16 years and over	5,443,468
In labor force	58.7%
Civilian labor force	58.6%
Employed	56.2%
Unemployed	2.4%
Unemployment Rate	4.1%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over	6,283,929
Car, truck, or van - drove alone	68.8%
Car, truck, or van - carpooled	7.5%
Public transportation (excluding taxicab)	3.4%
Walked	3.2%
Other means	2.0%
Worked from home	15.2%
Mean travel time to work (minutes)	26.4
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	6,402,242
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	43.0%
Service occupations	16.0%
Sales and office occupations	19.2%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	7.6%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	14.2%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over	3,340,647
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	38.5%
Service occupations	12.6%
Sales and office occupations	14.2%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	13.9%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	20.8%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over	3,061,595
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	47.9%
Service occupations	19.6%
Sales and office occupations	24.7%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	0.7%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	7.0%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	6,402,242
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining	1.2%
Construction	5.8%
Manufacturing	11.0%
Wholesale trade	2.3%
Retail trade	11.5%
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities	6.2%
Information	1.4%
Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing	6.7%
Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services	11.2%
Educational services, and health care and social assistance	26.6%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services	7.4%
Other services (except public administration)	4.6%
Public administration	3.9%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	6,402,242
Private wage and salary workers	83.5%
Government workers	11.3%
Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business	5.0%
Unpaid family workers	0.2%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
Households	5,294,065
Median household income (dollars)	71,798
With earnings	75.0%
Mean earnings (dollars)	103,792
With Social Security income	35.0%
Mean Social Security income (dollars)	22,575
With Supplemental Security Income	5.6%
Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars)	10,840
With cash public assistance income	3.3%
Mean cash public assistance income (dollars)	3,092
With retirement income	27.4%
Mean retirement income (dollars)	27,849
With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits	14.4%
Families	3,294,814
Median family income (dollars)	93,029
Married-couple family	74.7%
Median income (dollars)	109,173
Male householder, no spouse present, family	7.2%
Median income (dollars)	65,099
Female householder, no husband present, family	18.0%
Median income (dollars)	46,054
Individuals	12,972,008
Per capita income (dollars)	41,489
With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	2,635,037
Female	2,015,147
Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	86,494
Female	65,618
Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
Male	63,487
Female	52,070
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
Civilian noninstitutionalized population	12,789,843
With private health insurance	71.2%
With public coverage	38.8%
No health insurance coverage	5.3%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
All families	7.9%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	12.4%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	11.4%
Married-couple family	3.9%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	4.8%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	4.6%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	23.2%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	31.5%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	31.6%
All people	11.8%
Under 18 years	15.2%
Related children of the householder under 18 years	15.0%
Related children of the householder under 5 years	16.2%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years	14.5%
18 years and over	10.9%
18 to 64 years	11.2%
65 years and over	10.1%
People in families	8.6%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over	23.5%
HOUSING TENURE
Occupied housing units	5,294,065
Owner-occupied housing units	69.1%
Renter-occupied housing units	30.9%
Average household size of owner-occupied unit	2.52
Average household size of renter-occupied unit	2.03
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
Occupied housing units	5,294,065
1-unit, detached or attached	76.0%
2 to 4 units	8.0%
5 or more units	12.8%
Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc.	3.3%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
Occupied housing units	5,294,065
Built 2020 or later	0.9%
Built 2010 to 2019	5.6%
Built 2000 to 2009	8.6%
Built 1980 to 1999	18.4%
Built 1960 to 1979	22.6%
Built 1940 to 1959	20.2%
Built 1939 or earlier	23.7%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
Occupied housing units	5,294,065
None	10.5%
1 or more	89.5%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
Occupied housing units	5,294,065
Gas	56.5%
Electricity	25.3%
All other fuels	17.7%
No fuel used	0.5%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
Occupied housing units	5,294,065
No telephone service available	1.0%
1.01 or more occupants per room	1.7%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed)	2,114,599
Less than 30 percent	75.8%
30 percent or more	24.2%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
Owner-occupied housing units	3,658,207
Median value (dollars)	245,500
Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars)	1,601
Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars)	597
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed)	1,504,487
Less than 30 percent	51.4%
30 percent or more	48.6%
GROSS RENT
Occupied units paying rent	1,540,239
Median gross rent (dollars)	1,116
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
Total households	5,294,065
With a computer	94.2%
With a broadband Internet subscription	89.9%