Pennsylvania

  1. August assessment before convention
  2. July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign
  3. July assessment through end of Biden campaign
  4. June assessment
  5. May assessment
  6. April assessment
  7. March assessment
  8. Model of 2020 election adding uncertainty
  9. Other news
  10. Scenarios
    1. Harris wins
    2. Trump wins
    3. Harris wins without Pennsylvania
  11. Pennsylvania facts
  12. Pennsylvania demographics

Model results

In the 2020 election President Biden won 50.59% (0.5059) of the votes cast for Biden or Trump in Pennsylvania This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 50.56% to 50.63%. Next, the results of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis. When the plot shows that more of the credible interval lies to the left of the 2020 margin it indicates that Harris is losing ground compared to the 2020 election results, taking the polls at face value.

Beginning with polls conducted from July 23 - July 31, 2024, the model that used results through July 22, 2024 plus an allowance for the uncertainty introduced by the entry of Vice President Harris in place of President Biden will be used as the starting point, to be updated fortnightly by later poll results.

Assessments are based on three criteria.

  • Stringent—Harris (after July 22, 2024) or Biden (before July 23, 2024) wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than the 2020 margin of Biden over Trump.

  • Historical—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.

  • Relaxed—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.

August assessment before convention

Harris wins under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5057 0.5057 0.5055 0.5053 0.5061 0.0 1.0004

July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign

Harris wins under the Relaxed criterion

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5057 0.5057 0.5055 0.5053 0.5061 0.0 1.0001

July assessment through end of Biden campaign

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5057 0.5057 0.5058 0.5053 0.5061 0.0 1.0

June assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5058 0.5058 0.5058 0.5054 0.5061 0.0 1.0004

May assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5058 0.5058 0.5058 0.5054 0.5061 0.0 1.0001

April assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5058 0.5058 0.5058 0.5054 0.5062 0.0 1.0009

March assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5058 0.5058 0.5057 0.5054 0.5062 0.0 1.0001

Model of 2020 election adding uncertainty

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5059 0.5059 0.5059 0.5055 0.5063 0.0 1.0004

Other news

Pennsylvania's requirement for mail-in ballot envelopes to bear a date survived a challenge under a federal civil rights law; a claim that it is invalid under the Equal Protection Clause is still pending.

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is represented in 51 of the 128 possible outcomes, 70% of the winning combin ations for Harris. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania provides support to many of the successful outcomes.

Harris wins

States won by Harris Electoral Votes Harris Votes Trump Votes Result
WI, MI and PA 44 270 268 Harris
WI, GA and PA 45 271 267 Harris
WI, PA and NC 45 271 267 Harris
AZ, MI and PA 45 271 267 Harris
NV, WI, AZ and PA 46 272 266 Harris
AZ, GA and PA 46 272 266 Harris
AZ, PA and NC 46 272 266 Harris
NV, WI, MI and PA 50 276 262 Harris
GA, MI and PA 50 276 262 Harris
MI, PA and NC 50 276 262 Harris
NV, WI, GA and PA 51 277 261 Harris
NV, WI, PA and NC 51 277 261 Harris
NV, AZ, MI and PA 51 277 261 Harris
GA, PA and NC 51 277 261 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and PA 52 278 260 Harris
NV, AZ, PA and NC 52 278 260 Harris
WI, AZ, MI and PA 55 281 257 Harris
NV, GA, MI and PA 56 282 256 Harris
NV, MI, PA and NC 56 282 256 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and PA 56 282 256 Harris
WI, AZ, PA and NC 56 282 256 Harris
NV, GA, PA and NC 57 283 255 Harris
WI, GA, MI and PA 60 286 252 Harris
WI, MI, PA and NC 60 286 252 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA 61 287 251 Harris
WI, GA, PA and NC 61 287 251 Harris
AZ, GA, MI and PA 61 287 251 Harris
AZ, MI, PA and NC 61 287 251 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA 62 288 250 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC 62 288 250 Harris
AZ, GA, PA and NC 62 288 250 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA 66 292 246 Harris
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC 66 292 246 Harris
GA, MI, PA and NC 66 292 246 Harris
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC 67 293 245 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA 67 293 245 Harris
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC 67 293 245 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC 68 294 244 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 71 297 241 Harris
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 71 297 241 Harris
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC 72 298 240 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 72 298 240 Harris
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 76 302 236 Harris
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 78 304 234 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 82 308 230 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 83 309 229 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 87 313 225 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 93 319 219 Harris

Trump wins

State Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
PA 19 245 293 Trump
NV and PA 25 251 287 Trump
WI and PA 29 255 283 Trump
AZ and PA 30 256 282 Trump
MI and PA 34 260 278 Trump
GA and PA 35 261 277 Trump
PA and NC 35 261 277 Trump
NV, WI and PA 35 261 277 Trump
NV, AZ and PA 36 262 276 Trump
NV, MI and PA 40 266 272 Trump
WI, AZ and PA 40 266 272 Trump
NV, GA and PA 41 267 271 Trump
NV, PA and NC 41 267 271 Trump

Harris wins without Pennsylvania

States Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 273 265 Harris
NV, WI, MI and NC 47 273 265 Harris
GA, MI and NC 47 273 265 Harris
NV, WI, GA and NC 48 274 264 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 274 264 Harris
NV, AZ, MI and NC 48 274 264 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and NC 49 275 263 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 278 260 Harris
WI, AZ, MI and NC 52 278 260 Harris
NV, GA, MI and NC 53 279 259 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and NC 53 279 259 Harris
WI, GA, MI and NC 57 283 255 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 284 254 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC 58 284 254 Harris
AZ, GA, MI and NC 58 284 254 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC 59 285 253 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC 63 289 249 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC 64 290 248 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 68 294 244 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 74 300 238 Harris

Pennsylvania facts

  • Electoral votes: 19

  • 2020: Biden

  • 2016: Trump

  • 2020 turnout: 6,835,903

  • 2020 margin: 80,555

  • 2022 turnout (governor): 5,366,179

  • Governor: Josh Shapiro (D)

  • Senator up for election: Bob Casey, Jr.(D)

  • Senate: D (2)

  • House: D (9) R (8)

  • State House: D (102) R (100)

  • State House 2024 election: All seats

  • State Senate: R (28) D (22)

  • State Senate 2024 election: R (20) D (17)

  • Secretary of State: Al Schmidt (D) (SoS appointed by governor)

  • SoS website

  • Polls close: 8 pm Eastern

  • Mail-in voting: Yes

  • Early in-person voting: No

Pennsylvania demographics

Label (GROUPING) PA
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
    Total population 12,972,008
        One race 92.8%
        Two races 6.6%
        Three races 0.5%
        Four or more races 0.1%
SEX AND AGE
    Total population 12,972,008
        Male 49.3%
        Female 50.7%
Under 5 years 5.2%
5 to 17 years 15.1%
18 to 24 years 9.2%
25 to 34 years 12.9%
35 to 44 years 12.5%
45 to 54 years 11.9%
55 to 64 years 13.6%
65 to 74 years 11.3%
75 years and over 8.3%
        Median age (years) 40.9
18 years and over 79.8%
21 years and over 75.6%
62 years and over 23.9%
65 years and over 19.6%
Under 18 years 2,622,158
            Male 51.1%
            Female 48.9%
18 years and over 10,349,850
            Male 48.9%
            Female 51.1%
18 to 34 years 2,875,427
            Male 50.8%
            Female 49.2%
35 to 64 years 4,935,369
            Male 50.0%
            Female 50.0%
65 years and over 2,539,054
            Male 44.5%
            Female 55.5%
RELATIONSHIP
    Population in households 12,540,001
        Householder or spouse 61.8%
        Unmarried partner 3.1%
        Child 27.4%
        Other relatives 5.3%
        Other nonrelatives 2.4%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
    Households 5,294,065
        Family households 62.2%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 23.9%
        Married-couple family 46.5%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 16.3%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 11.2%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 5.6%
        Nonfamily households 37.8%
            Male householder 17.3%
                Living alone 13.7%
                Not living alone 3.6%
            Female householder 20.4%
                Living alone 16.9%
                Not living alone 3.5%
        Average household size 2.37
        Average family size 2.99
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over 10,822,275
        Now married, except separated 48.1%
        Widowed 6.3%
        Divorced 9.6%
        Separated 1.7%
        Never married 34.4%
Male 15 years and over 5,300,790
        Now married, except separated 50.0%
        Widowed 2.9%
        Divorced 8.5%
        Separated 1.6%
        Never married 37.1%
Female 15 years and over 5,521,485
        Now married, except separated 46.2%
        Widowed 9.6%
        Divorced 10.6%
        Separated 1.8%
        Never married 31.8%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 2,909,535
        Nursery school, preschool 5.5%
        Kindergarten 4.7%
Elementary school (grades 1-8) 40.3%
High school (grades 9-12) 21.4%
        College or graduate school 28.0%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,431,980
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 69.1%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 24.9%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,477,555
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 63.9%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 31.1%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over 9,151,744
        Less than high school diploma 7.8%
        High school graduate (includes equivalency) 33.0%
        Some college or associate's degree 24.1%
        Bachelor's degree 20.8%
        Graduate or professional degree 14.3%
        High school graduate or higher 92.2%
            Male, high school graduate or higher 91.8%
            Female, high school graduate or higher 92.5%
        Bachelor's degree or higher 35.1%
            Male, bachelor's degree or higher 34.0%
            Female, bachelor's degree or higher 36.1%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years 2,881,967
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 149,542
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 41,688
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months 27.9%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over 8,347,825
        Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) 2.5%
            Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren 31.1%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over 10,341,435
        Civilian veteran 6.2%
DISABILITY STATUS
    Total civilian noninstitutionalized population 12,789,843
        With a disability 14.6%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years 2,618,106
        With a disability 5.7%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years 7,714,886
        With a disability 12.0%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older 2,456,851
        With a disability 31.9%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over 12,845,436
        Same house 89.3%
        Different house in the U.S. 10.3%
            Same county 5.7%
            Different county 4.6%
                Same state 2.5%
                Different state 2.0%
        Abroad 0.4%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
    Native 11,993,835
        Male 49.3%
        Female 50.7%
    Foreign born 978,173
        Male 49.2%
        Female 50.8%
        Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen 552,582
            Male 47.4%
            Female 52.6%
        Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen 425,591
            Male 51.6%
            Female 48.4%
    Population born outside the United States 978,173
Entered 2010 or later 38.4%
Entered 2000 to 2009 23.7%
Entered before 2000 37.9%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
    Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea 978,173
        Europe 16.6%
        Asia 37.7%
        Africa 9.1%
        Oceania 0.3%
        Latin America 34.4%
        Northern America 1.9%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over 12,303,274
        English only 87.7%
        Language other than English 12.3%
            Speak English less than "very well" 5.0%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over 10,660,341
        In labor force 62.8%
            Civilian labor force 62.8%
                Employed 60.1%
                Unemployed 2.7%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.3%
            Armed Forces 0.1%
        Not in labor force 37.2%
Females 16 years and over 5,443,468
        In labor force 58.7%
            Civilian labor force 58.6%
                Employed 56.2%
                Unemployed 2.4%
                    Unemployment Rate 4.1%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 6,283,929
        Car, truck, or van - drove alone 68.8%
        Car, truck, or van - carpooled 7.5%
        Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 3.4%
        Walked 3.2%
        Other means 2.0%
        Worked from home 15.2%
        Mean travel time to work (minutes) 26.4
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 6,402,242
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 43.0%
        Service occupations 16.0%
        Sales and office occupations 19.2%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 7.6%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 14.2%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over 3,340,647
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 38.5%
        Service occupations 12.6%
        Sales and office occupations 14.2%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 13.9%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 20.8%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over 3,061,595
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 47.9%
        Service occupations 19.6%
        Sales and office occupations 24.7%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 0.7%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 7.0%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 6,402,242
        Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 1.2%
        Construction 5.8%
        Manufacturing 11.0%
        Wholesale trade 2.3%
        Retail trade 11.5%
        Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 6.2%
        Information 1.4%
        Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 6.7%
        Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 11.2%
        Educational services, and health care and social assistance 26.6%
        Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 7.4%
        Other services (except public administration) 4.6%
        Public administration 3.9%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 6,402,242
        Private wage and salary workers 83.5%
        Government workers 11.3%
        Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 5.0%
        Unpaid family workers 0.2%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
    Households 5,294,065
        Median household income (dollars) 71,798
        With earnings 75.0%
            Mean earnings (dollars) 103,792
        With Social Security income 35.0%
            Mean Social Security income (dollars) 22,575
        With Supplemental Security Income 5.6%
            Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 10,840
        With cash public assistance income 3.3%
            Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 3,092
        With retirement income 27.4%
            Mean retirement income (dollars) 27,849
        With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits 14.4%
    Families 3,294,814
        Median family income (dollars) 93,029
            Married-couple family 74.7%
        Median income (dollars) 109,173
            Male householder, no spouse present, family 7.2%
        Median income (dollars) 65,099
            Female householder, no husband present, family 18.0%
        Median income (dollars) 46,054
    Individuals 12,972,008
        Per capita income (dollars) 41,489
        With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 2,635,037
            Female 2,015,147
        Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 86,494
            Female 65,618
        Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 63,487
            Female 52,070
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
    Civilian noninstitutionalized population 12,789,843
        With private health insurance 71.2%
        With public coverage 38.8%
        No health insurance coverage 5.3%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
    All families 7.9%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 12.4%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 11.4%
        Married-couple family 3.9%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 4.8%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 4.6%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 23.2%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 31.5%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 31.6%
    All people 11.8%
Under 18 years 15.2%
Related children of the householder under 18 years 15.0%
Related children of the householder under 5 years 16.2%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years 14.5%
18 years and over 10.9%
18 to 64 years 11.2%
65 years and over 10.1%
        People in families 8.6%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 23.5%
HOUSING TENURE
    Occupied housing units 5,294,065
        Owner-occupied housing units 69.1%
        Renter-occupied housing units 30.9%
        Average household size of owner-occupied unit 2.52
        Average household size of renter-occupied unit 2.03
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
    Occupied housing units 5,294,065
1-unit, detached or attached 76.0%
2 to 4 units 8.0%
5 or more units 12.8%
        Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. 3.3%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
    Occupied housing units 5,294,065
Built 2020 or later 0.9%
Built 2010 to 2019 5.6%
Built 2000 to 2009 8.6%
Built 1980 to 1999 18.4%
Built 1960 to 1979 22.6%
Built 1940 to 1959 20.2%
Built 1939 or earlier 23.7%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
    Occupied housing units 5,294,065
        None 10.5%
1 or more 89.5%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
    Occupied housing units 5,294,065
        Gas 56.5%
        Electricity 25.3%
        All other fuels 17.7%
        No fuel used 0.5%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
    Occupied housing units 5,294,065
        No telephone service available 1.0%
1.01 or more occupants per room 1.7%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) 2,114,599
Less than 30 percent 75.8%
30 percent or more 24.2%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
    Owner-occupied housing units 3,658,207
        Median value (dollars) 245,500
        Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) 1,601
        Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) 597
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) 1,504,487
Less than 30 percent 51.4%
30 percent or more 48.6%
GROSS RENT
    Occupied units paying rent 1,540,239
        Median gross rent (dollars) 1,116
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
    Total households 5,294,065
        With a computer 94.2%
        With a broadband Internet subscription 89.9%
©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: August 21, 2024.