Watchlist

Florida

Although Florida is widely considered to be a solid red state, in 2020 the margin was less 3.4%, not much different from the seven swing states that had margins at or below 3.2%. However the Florida Supreme Court issued an advisory option that a proposed ballot initiative amending the Florida Constitution to create a right to abortion more expansive was permissible. In a separate opinion it upheld a 16-week abortion ban, but noted that a new 6-week ban will go into effect within 30 days. The political effect has not yet been polled to assess whether it is likely to draw more voters into the general election than would otherwise participate, and, if so, whether it draws more in support of the measure or more against. Further, it unassessed how that affects the presidential outcome.