Final
Scenarios
Wisconsin facts
Wisconsin demographics

Model results

Final

The model shows Harris strongly leading, with 88.39% of simulated outcomes showing her gaining more than 50% of the two-candidate vote. This suggests a very strong position for Harris, but it's important to note that this is a statistical projection based the data from August through October 31. This is a summary of the model, not a prediction of the election outcome.

median	mean	mode	min	max	q025	q975
0.5035	0.5035	0.5027	0.4913	0.5143	0.4967	0.5104

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Wisconsin. Wisconsin is represented in 42 of the 128 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris.

Harris wins

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
WI, MI and PA	44	270	268	Harris
WI, GA and PA	45	271	267	Harris
WI, PA and NC	45	271	267	Harris
NV, WI, AZ and PA	46	272	266	Harris
NV, WI, GA and MI	47	273	265	Harris
NV, WI, MI and NC	47	273	265	Harris
NV, WI, GA and NC	48	274	264	Harris
NV, WI, MI and PA	50	276	262	Harris
NV, WI, GA and PA	51	277	261	Harris
NV, WI, PA and NC	51	277	261	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and MI	52	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and NC	52	278	260	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and NC	53	279	259	Harris
WI, AZ, MI and PA	55	281	257	Harris
WI, AZ, GA and PA	56	282	256	Harris
WI, AZ, PA and NC	56	282	256	Harris
WI, GA, MI and NC	57	283	255	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI	58	284	254	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC	58	284	254	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC	59	285	253	Harris
WI, GA, MI and PA	60	286	252	Harris
WI, MI, PA and NC	60	286	252	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA	61	287	251	Harris
WI, GA, PA and NC	61	287	251	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA	62	288	250	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC	62	288	250	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC	63	289	249	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA	66	292	246	Harris
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC	66	292	246	Harris
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC	67	293	245	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	68	294	244	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	71	297	241	Harris
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	71	297	241	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	72	298	240	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC	74	300	238	Harris
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	76	302	236	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC	77	303	235	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC	78	304	234	Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC	82	308	230	Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	87	313	225	Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	93	319	219	Harris

Electoral tie

States won by Harris	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
NV, WI, AZ and GA	43	269	269	Tie
NV, WI, AZ and NC	43	269	269	Tie

Trump wins

States	Electoral Votes	Harris	Trump	Winner
WI	10	236	302	Trump
NV and WI	16	242	296	Trump
WI and AZ	21	247	291	Trump
WI and MI	25	251	287	Trump
WI and GA	26	252	286	Trump
WI and NC	26	252	286	Trump
NV, WI and AZ	27	253	285	Trump
WI and PA	29	255	283	Trump
NV, WI and MI	31	257	281	Trump
NV, WI and GA	32	258	280	Trump
NV, WI and NC	32	258	280	Trump
NV, WI and PA	35	261	277	Trump
WI, AZ and MI	36	262	276	Trump
WI, AZ and GA	37	263	275	Trump
WI, AZ and NC	37	263	275	Trump
WI, AZ and PA	40	266	272	Trump
WI, GA and MI	41	267	271	Trump
WI, MI and NC	41	267	271	Trump
NV, WI, AZ and MI	42	268	270	Trump
WI, GA and NC	42	268	270	Trump

Harris wins without Wisconsin

combo	votes	harris	trump	result
AZ, MI and PA	45	271	267	Harris
AZ, GA and PA	46	272	266	Harris
AZ, PA and NC	46	272	266	Harris
GA, MI and NC	47	273	265	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and MI	48	274	264	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and NC	48	274	264	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and NC	49	275	263	Harris
GA, MI and PA	50	276	262	Harris
MI, PA and NC	50	276	262	Harris
NV, AZ, MI and PA	51	277	261	Harris
GA, PA and NC	51	277	261	Harris
NV, AZ, GA and PA	52	278	260	Harris
NV, AZ, PA and NC	52	278	260	Harris
NV, GA, MI and NC	53	279	259	Harris
NV, GA, MI and PA	56	282	256	Harris
NV, MI, PA and NC	56	282	256	Harris
NV, GA, PA and NC	57	283	255	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and NC	58	284	254	Harris
AZ, GA, MI and PA	61	287	251	Harris
AZ, MI, PA and NC	61	287	251	Harris
AZ, GA, PA and NC	62	288	250	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC	64	290	248	Harris
GA, MI, PA and NC	66	292	246	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA	67	293	245	Harris
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC	67	293	245	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC	68	294	244	Harris
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC	72	298	240	Harris
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	77	303	235	Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC	83	309	229	Harris

Wisconsin facts

Electoral votes: 10
2020: Harris
2016: Trump
2020 turnout: 3,241,050
2020 margin: 20,682
2022 turnout (governor): 2,627,309
Governor: Tony Evers (D)
Senator up for election: Tammi Baldwin (D)
Senate: D (1) R (1)
House: R (6) D (2)
State House: R (64) D ( 35)
State House 2024 election: All seats
State Senate: R (22) D (10) V(1)
State Senate 2024 election: R (10) D (5)
Secretary of State: Wisconsin Elections Commission R (3) D (3)
Commission website
Polls close: 8 pm Central
Mail-in voting: Yes
Early in-person voting: Yes

Wisconsin demographics

Label (GROUPING)	WI
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
Total population	5,892,539
One race	92.1%
Two races	7.5%
Three races	0.4%
Four or more races	0.0%
SEX AND AGE
Total population	5,892,539
Male	50.2%
Female	49.8%
Under 5 years	5.2%
5 to 17 years	15.8%
18 to 24 years	9.5%
25 to 34 years	12.5%
35 to 44 years	12.6%
45 to 54 years	11.8%
55 to 64 years	13.9%
65 to 74 years	11.2%
75 years and over	7.5%
Median age (years)	40.4
18 years and over	78.9%
21 years and over	74.8%
62 years and over	23.0%
65 years and over	18.7%
Under 18 years	1,241,780
Male	51.7%
Female	48.3%
18 years and over	4,650,759
Male	49.8%
Female	50.2%
18 to 34 years	1,295,988
Male	51.4%
Female	48.6%
35 to 64 years	2,252,385
Male	50.7%
Female	49.3%
65 years and over	1,102,386
Male	46.3%
Female	53.7%
RELATIONSHIP
Population in households	5,755,117
Householder or spouse	63.6%
Unmarried partner	3.7%
Child	26.6%
Other relatives	3.4%
Other nonrelatives	2.7%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
Households	2,491,121
Family households	60.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	24.1%
Married-couple family	47.0%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	16.5%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	9.1%
With own children of the householder under 18 years	5.2%
Nonfamily households	39.3%
Male householder	19.3%
Living alone	14.7%
Not living alone	4.6%
Female householder	20.1%
Living alone	16.3%
Not living alone	3.8%
Average household size	2.31
Average family size	2.92
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over	4,880,508
Now married, except separated	49.8%
Widowed	5.3%
Divorced	10.7%
Separated	0.9%
Never married	33.4%
Male 15 years and over	2,435,440
Now married, except separated	50.5%
Widowed	2.7%
Divorced	9.8%
Separated	0.7%
Never married	36.4%
Female 15 years and over	2,445,068
Now married, except separated	49.1%
Widowed	7.8%
Divorced	11.5%
Separated	1.1%
Never married	30.4%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school	1,350,029
Nursery school, preschool	5.4%
Kindergarten	5.3%
Elementary school (grades 1-8)	41.1%
High school (grades 9-12)	22.4%
College or graduate school	25.8%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school	672,243
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	71.7%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	22.7%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school	677,786
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12	66.0%
Percent enrolled in college or graduate school	28.8%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over	4,088,500
Less than high school diploma	6.5%
High school graduate (includes equivalency)	29.6%
Some college or associate's degree	30.7%
Bachelor's degree	21.7%
Graduate or professional degree	11.6%
High school graduate or higher	93.5%
Male, high school graduate or higher	92.5%
Female, high school graduate or higher	94.4%
Bachelor's degree or higher	33.2%
Male, bachelor's degree or higher	31.0%
Female, bachelor's degree or higher	35.4%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years	1,301,817
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	66,580
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months	18,432
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months	27.7%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over	3,722,339
Grandparents living with grandchild(ren)	1.5%
Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren	33.6%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over	4,646,486
Civilian veteran	6.1%
DISABILITY STATUS
Total civilian noninstitutionalized population	5,831,451
With a disability	12.5%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years	1,240,934
With a disability	4.2%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years	3,513,627
With a disability	10.4%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older	1,076,890
With a disability	28.7%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over	5,835,492
Same house	87.7%
Different house in the U.S.	11.9%
Same county	6.3%
Different county	5.5%
Same state	3.5%
Different state	2.1%
Abroad	0.4%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
Native	5,597,798
Male	50.3%
Female	49.7%
Foreign born	294,741
Male	49.3%
Female	50.7%
Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen	141,128
Male	45.4%
Female	54.6%
Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen	153,613
Male	52.8%
Female	47.2%
Population born outside the United States	294,741
Entered 2010 or later	35.8%
Entered 2000 to 2009	23.4%
Entered before 2000	40.8%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea	294,741
Europe	15.2%
Asia	34.8%
Africa	7.1%
Oceania	0.3%
Latin America	40.5%
Northern America	2.2%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over	5,583,295
English only	91.3%
Language other than English	8.7%
Speak English less than "very well"	3.2%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over	4,802,830
In labor force	65.1%
Civilian labor force	65.0%
Employed	63.2%
Unemployed	1.8%
Unemployment Rate	2.8%
Armed Forces	0.1%
Not in labor force	34.9%
Females 16 years and over	2,407,021
In labor force	61.4%
Civilian labor force	61.4%
Employed	59.7%
Unemployed	1.6%
Unemployment Rate	2.6%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over	2,991,638
Car, truck, or van - drove alone	73.9%
Car, truck, or van - carpooled	7.8%
Public transportation (excluding taxicab)	1.1%
Walked	2.7%
Other means	1.6%
Worked from home	13.0%
Mean travel time to work (minutes)	22.2
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	3,036,963
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	39.9%
Service occupations	14.9%
Sales and office occupations	18.9%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	8.6%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	17.6%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over	1,598,848
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	34.4%
Service occupations	11.4%
Sales and office occupations	13.3%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	15.5%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	25.3%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over	1,438,115
Management, business, science, and arts occupations	46.1%
Service occupations	18.7%
Sales and office occupations	25.2%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations	0.9%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	9.1%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	3,036,963
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining	2.2%
Construction	6.2%
Manufacturing	18.4%
Wholesale trade	2.4%
Retail trade	10.9%
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities	4.9%
Information	1.5%
Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing	6.1%
Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services	9.2%
Educational services, and health care and social assistance	23.2%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services	7.3%
Other services (except public administration)	4.2%
Public administration	3.6%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over	3,036,963
Private wage and salary workers	81.9%
Government workers	12.8%
Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business	5.2%
Unpaid family workers	0.2%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
Households	2,491,121
Median household income (dollars)	70,996
With earnings	76.0%
Mean earnings (dollars)	96,513
With Social Security income	32.2%
Mean Social Security income (dollars)	23,279
With Supplemental Security Income	4.5%
Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars)	11,207
With cash public assistance income	2.0%
Mean cash public assistance income (dollars)	3,344
With retirement income	26.4%
Mean retirement income (dollars)	27,551
With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits	11.7%
Families	1,511,105
Median family income (dollars)	91,700
Married-couple family	77.6%
Median income (dollars)	105,109
Male householder, no spouse present, family	7.5%
Median income (dollars)	64,141
Female householder, no husband present, family	15.0%
Median income (dollars)	45,236
Individuals	5,892,539
Per capita income (dollars)	40,188
With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	1,241,897
Female	936,639
Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
Male	80,588
Female	60,832
Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
Male	61,280
Female	49,582
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
Civilian noninstitutionalized population	5,831,451
With private health insurance	73.3%
With public coverage	35.7%
No health insurance coverage	5.2%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
All families	6.8%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	10.9%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	11.1%
Married-couple family	3.4%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	4.1%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	3.8%
Female householder, no spouse present, family	23.1%
With related children of the householder under 18 years	30.2%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only	33.0%
All people	10.7%
Under 18 years	12.7%
Related children of the householder under 18 years	12.4%
Related children of the householder under 5 years	13.8%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years	11.9%
18 years and over	10.2%
18 to 64 years	10.3%
65 years and over	9.6%
People in families	7.3%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over	21.8%
HOUSING TENURE
Occupied housing units	2,491,121
Owner-occupied housing units	68.1%
Renter-occupied housing units	31.9%
Average household size of owner-occupied unit	2.47
Average household size of renter-occupied unit	1.97
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
Occupied housing units	2,491,121
1-unit, detached or attached	70.8%
2 to 4 units	9.1%
5 or more units	17.5%
Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc.	2.6%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
Occupied housing units	2,491,121
Built 2020 or later	1.4%
Built 2010 to 2019	7.8%
Built 2000 to 2009	12.8%
Built 1980 to 1999	21.4%
Built 1960 to 1979	23.2%
Built 1940 to 1959	15.5%
Built 1939 or earlier	18.0%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
Occupied housing units	2,491,121
None	6.5%
1 or more	93.5%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
Occupied housing units	2,491,121
Gas	76.7%
Electricity	17.7%
All other fuels	5.0%
No fuel used	0.6%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
Occupied housing units	2,491,121
No telephone service available	0.8%
1.01 or more occupants per room	1.5%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed)	1,031,942
Less than 30 percent	76.5%
30 percent or more	23.5%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
Owner-occupied housing units	1,696,493
Median value (dollars)	252,800
Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars)	1,545
Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars)	616
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed)	748,787
Less than 30 percent	54.6%
30 percent or more	45.4%
GROSS RENT
Occupied units paying rent	763,110
Median gross rent (dollars)	992
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
Total households	2,491,121
With a computer	94.9%
With a broadband Internet subscription	90.6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates