Wisconsin

  1. August assessment before convention
  2. July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign
  3. July assessment through end of Biden campaign
  4. June assessment
  5. May assessment
  6. April assessment
  7. March assessment
  8. 2020 election
  9. Scenarios
    1. Harris wins
    2. Electoral tie
    3. Trump wins
    4. Harris wins without Wisconsin
  10. Wisconsin facts
  11. Wisconsin demographics

Model results

In the 2020 election President Biden won 50.32% (0.5032) of the votes cast for Biden or Trump in Wisconsin. This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 50.27% to 50.37%. Next, the results of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis. When the plot shows that more of the credible interval lies to the left of the 2020 margin it indicates that Harris is losing ground compared to the 2020 election results, taking the polls at face value.

Assessments are based on three criteria.

  • Stringent—Harris wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than his 2020 margin.

  • Historical—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.

  • Relaxed—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.

August assessment before convention

Harris wins under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.503 0.503 0.503 0.5025 0.5036 0.0 1.0

July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign

Harris wins under the Relaxed criterion

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.503 0.503 0.5028 0.5025 0.5036 0.0 1.0002

July assessment through end of Biden campaign

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.503 0.503 0.5033 0.5025 0.5036 0.0 1.0005

June assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5031 0.5031 0.5031 0.5026 0.5037 0.0 1.0003

May assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5031 0.5031 0.503 0.5026 0.5037 0.0 1.0004

April assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5032 0.5032 0.5032 0.5026 0.5037 0.0 1.0001

March assessment

Biden wins under the Relaxed criterion.

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.5031 0.5031 0.5032 0.5026 0.5037 0.0 1.0003

2020 election

median mean mode q025 q975 mcse rhat
0.503 0.503 0.503 0.5025 0.5036 0.0 1.0007

Scenarios

The scenario tables below show the possible outcomes that involve Wisconsin. Wisconsin is represented in 42 of the 128 possible outcomes. The combinations shown are those representing swing states taken by Harris.

Harris wins

States won by Harris Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
WI, MI and PA 44 270 268 Harris
WI, GA and PA 45 271 267 Harris
WI, PA and NC 45 271 267 Harris
NV, WI, AZ and PA 46 272 266 Harris
NV, WI, GA and MI 47 273 265 Harris
NV, WI, MI and NC 47 273 265 Harris
NV, WI, GA and NC 48 274 264 Harris
NV, WI, MI and PA 50 276 262 Harris
NV, WI, GA and PA 51 277 261 Harris
NV, WI, PA and NC 51 277 261 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and MI 52 278 260 Harris
WI, AZ, MI and NC 52 278 260 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and NC 53 279 259 Harris
WI, AZ, MI and PA 55 281 257 Harris
WI, AZ, GA and PA 56 282 256 Harris
WI, AZ, PA and NC 56 282 256 Harris
WI, GA, MI and NC 57 283 255 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and MI 58 284 254 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC 58 284 254 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and NC 59 285 253 Harris
WI, GA, MI and PA 60 286 252 Harris
WI, MI, PA and NC 60 286 252 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA 61 287 251 Harris
WI, GA, PA and NC 61 287 251 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA and PA 62 288 250 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC 62 288 250 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and NC 63 289 249 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI and PA 66 292 246 Harris
NV, WI, MI, PA and NC 66 292 246 Harris
NV, WI, GA, PA and NC 67 293 245 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 68 294 244 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 71 297 241 Harris
WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 71 297 241 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 72 298 240 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and NC 74 300 238 Harris
WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 76 302 236 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI and PA 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC 77 303 235 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA and NC 78 304 234 Harris
NV, WI, GA, MI, PA and NC 82 308 230 Harris
WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 87 313 225 Harris
NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 93 319 219 Harris

Electoral tie

States won by Harris Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
NV, WI, AZ and GA 43 269 269 Tie
NV, WI, AZ and NC 43 269 269 Tie

Trump wins

States Electoral Votes Harris Trump Winner
WI 10 236 302 Trump
NV and WI 16 242 296 Trump
WI and AZ 21 247 291 Trump
WI and MI 25 251 287 Trump
WI and GA 26 252 286 Trump
WI and NC 26 252 286 Trump
NV, WI and AZ 27 253 285 Trump
WI and PA 29 255 283 Trump
NV, WI and MI 31 257 281 Trump
NV, WI and GA 32 258 280 Trump
NV, WI and NC 32 258 280 Trump
NV, WI and PA 35 261 277 Trump
WI, AZ and MI 36 262 276 Trump
WI, AZ and GA 37 263 275 Trump
WI, AZ and NC 37 263 275 Trump
WI, AZ and PA 40 266 272 Trump
WI, GA and MI 41 267 271 Trump
WI, MI and NC 41 267 271 Trump
NV, WI, AZ and MI 42 268 270 Trump
WI, GA and NC 42 268 270 Trump

Harris wins without Wisconsin

combo votes harris trump result
AZ, MI and PA 45 271 267 Harris
AZ, GA and PA 46 272 266 Harris
AZ, PA and NC 46 272 266 Harris
GA, MI and NC 47 273 265 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and MI 48 274 264 Harris
NV, AZ, MI and NC 48 274 264 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and NC 49 275 263 Harris
GA, MI and PA 50 276 262 Harris
MI, PA and NC 50 276 262 Harris
NV, AZ, MI and PA 51 277 261 Harris
GA, PA and NC 51 277 261 Harris
NV, AZ, GA and PA 52 278 260 Harris
NV, AZ, PA and NC 52 278 260 Harris
NV, GA, MI and NC 53 279 259 Harris
NV, GA, MI and PA 56 282 256 Harris
NV, MI, PA and NC 56 282 256 Harris
NV, GA, PA and NC 57 283 255 Harris
AZ, GA, MI and NC 58 284 254 Harris
AZ, GA, MI and PA 61 287 251 Harris
AZ, MI, PA and NC 61 287 251 Harris
AZ, GA, PA and NC 62 288 250 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and NC 64 290 248 Harris
GA, MI, PA and NC 66 292 246 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI and PA 67 293 245 Harris
NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC 67 293 245 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, PA and NC 68 294 244 Harris
NV, GA, MI, PA and NC 72 298 240 Harris
AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 77 303 235 Harris
NV, AZ, GA, MI, PA and NC 83 309 229 Harris

Wisconsin facts

  • Electoral votes: 10

  • 2020: Harris

  • 2016: Trump

  • 2020 turnout: 3,241,050

  • 2020 margin: 20,682

  • 2022 turnout (governor): 2,627,309

  • Governor: Tony Evers (D)

  • Senator up for election: Tammi Baldwin (D)

  • Senate: D (1) R (1)

  • House: R (6) D (2)

  • State House: R (64) D ( 35)

  • State House 2024 election: All seats

  • State Senate: R (22) D (10) V(1)

  • State Senate 2024 election: R (10) D (5)

  • Secretary of State: Wisconsin Elections Commission R (3) D (3)

  • Commission website

  • Polls close: 8 pm Central

  • Mail-in voting: Yes

  • Early in-person voting: Yes

Wisconsin demographics

Label (GROUPING) WI
TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES REPORTED
    Total population 5,892,539
        One race 92.1%
        Two races 7.5%
        Three races 0.4%
        Four or more races 0.0%
SEX AND AGE
    Total population 5,892,539
        Male 50.2%
        Female 49.8%
Under 5 years 5.2%
5 to 17 years 15.8%
18 to 24 years 9.5%
25 to 34 years 12.5%
35 to 44 years 12.6%
45 to 54 years 11.8%
55 to 64 years 13.9%
65 to 74 years 11.2%
75 years and over 7.5%
        Median age (years) 40.4
18 years and over 78.9%
21 years and over 74.8%
62 years and over 23.0%
65 years and over 18.7%
Under 18 years 1,241,780
            Male 51.7%
            Female 48.3%
18 years and over 4,650,759
            Male 49.8%
            Female 50.2%
18 to 34 years 1,295,988
            Male 51.4%
            Female 48.6%
35 to 64 years 2,252,385
            Male 50.7%
            Female 49.3%
65 years and over 1,102,386
            Male 46.3%
            Female 53.7%
RELATIONSHIP
    Population in households 5,755,117
        Householder or spouse 63.6%
        Unmarried partner 3.7%
        Child 26.6%
        Other relatives 3.4%
        Other nonrelatives 2.7%
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE
    Households 2,491,121
        Family households 60.7%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 24.1%
        Married-couple family 47.0%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 16.5%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 9.1%
With own children of the householder under 18 years 5.2%
        Nonfamily households 39.3%
            Male householder 19.3%
                Living alone 14.7%
                Not living alone 4.6%
            Female householder 20.1%
                Living alone 16.3%
                Not living alone 3.8%
        Average household size 2.31
        Average family size 2.92
MARITAL STATUS
Population 15 years and over 4,880,508
        Now married, except separated 49.8%
        Widowed 5.3%
        Divorced 10.7%
        Separated 0.9%
        Never married 33.4%
Male 15 years and over 2,435,440
        Now married, except separated 50.5%
        Widowed 2.7%
        Divorced 9.8%
        Separated 0.7%
        Never married 36.4%
Female 15 years and over 2,445,068
        Now married, except separated 49.1%
        Widowed 7.8%
        Divorced 11.5%
        Separated 1.1%
        Never married 30.4%
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 1,350,029
        Nursery school, preschool 5.4%
        Kindergarten 5.3%
Elementary school (grades 1-8) 41.1%
High school (grades 9-12) 22.4%
        College or graduate school 25.8%
Male 3 years and over enrolled in school 672,243
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 71.7%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 22.7%
Female 3 years and over enrolled in school 677,786
Percent enrolled in kindergarten to grade 12 66.0%
            Percent enrolled in college or graduate school 28.8%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 years and over 4,088,500
        Less than high school diploma 6.5%
        High school graduate (includes equivalency) 29.6%
        Some college or associate's degree 30.7%
        Bachelor's degree 21.7%
        Graduate or professional degree 11.6%
        High school graduate or higher 93.5%
            Male, high school graduate or higher 92.5%
            Female, high school graduate or higher 94.4%
        Bachelor's degree or higher 33.2%
            Male, bachelor's degree or higher 31.0%
            Female, bachelor's degree or higher 35.4%
FERTILITY
Women 15 to 50 years 1,301,817
Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 66,580
Unmarried women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months 18,432
As a percent of all women with a birth in the past 12 months 27.7%
RESPONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS
Population 30 years and over 3,722,339
        Grandparents living with grandchild(ren) 1.5%
            Grandparents responsible for grandchildren as a percentage of living with grandchildren 33.6%
VETERAN STATUS
Civilian population 18 years and over 4,646,486
        Civilian veteran 6.1%
DISABILITY STATUS
    Total civilian noninstitutionalized population 5,831,451
        With a disability 12.5%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population under 18 years 1,240,934
        With a disability 4.2%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 18 to 64 years 3,513,627
        With a disability 10.4%
Civilian noninstitutionalized population 65 years and older 1,076,890
        With a disability 28.7%
RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO
Population 1 year and over 5,835,492
        Same house 87.7%
        Different house in the U.S. 11.9%
            Same county 6.3%
            Different county 5.5%
                Same state 3.5%
                Different state 2.1%
        Abroad 0.4%
PLACE OF BIRTH, CITIZENSHIP STATUS AND YEAR OF ENTRY
    Native 5,597,798
        Male 50.3%
        Female 49.7%
    Foreign born 294,741
        Male 49.3%
        Female 50.7%
        Foreign born; naturalized U.S. citizen 141,128
            Male 45.4%
            Female 54.6%
        Foreign born; not a U.S. citizen 153,613
            Male 52.8%
            Female 47.2%
    Population born outside the United States 294,741
Entered 2010 or later 35.8%
Entered 2000 to 2009 23.4%
Entered before 2000 40.8%
WORLD REGION OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN BORN
    Foreign-born population excluding population born at sea 294,741
        Europe 15.2%
        Asia 34.8%
        Africa 7.1%
        Oceania 0.3%
        Latin America 40.5%
        Northern America 2.2%
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AND ABILITY TO SPEAK ENGLISH
Population 5 years and over 5,583,295
        English only 91.3%
        Language other than English 8.7%
            Speak English less than "very well" 3.2%
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 years and over 4,802,830
        In labor force 65.1%
            Civilian labor force 65.0%
                Employed 63.2%
                Unemployed 1.8%
                    Unemployment Rate 2.8%
            Armed Forces 0.1%
        Not in labor force 34.9%
Females 16 years and over 2,407,021
        In labor force 61.4%
            Civilian labor force 61.4%
                Employed 59.7%
                Unemployed 1.6%
                    Unemployment Rate 2.6%
COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 2,991,638
        Car, truck, or van - drove alone 73.9%
        Car, truck, or van - carpooled 7.8%
        Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 1.1%
        Walked 2.7%
        Other means 1.6%
        Worked from home 13.0%
        Mean travel time to work (minutes) 22.2
OCCUPATION
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 3,036,963
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 39.9%
        Service occupations 14.9%
        Sales and office occupations 18.9%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 8.6%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 17.6%
Male civilian employed population 16 years and over 1,598,848
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 34.4%
        Service occupations 11.4%
        Sales and office occupations 13.3%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 15.5%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 25.3%
Female civilian employed population 16 years and over 1,438,115
        Management, business, science, and arts occupations 46.1%
        Service occupations 18.7%
        Sales and office occupations 25.2%
        Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 0.9%
        Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 9.1%
INDUSTRY
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 3,036,963
        Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 2.2%
        Construction 6.2%
        Manufacturing 18.4%
        Wholesale trade 2.4%
        Retail trade 10.9%
        Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 4.9%
        Information 1.5%
        Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 6.1%
        Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 9.2%
        Educational services, and health care and social assistance 23.2%
        Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 7.3%
        Other services (except public administration) 4.2%
        Public administration 3.6%
CLASS OF WORKER
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 3,036,963
        Private wage and salary workers 81.9%
        Government workers 12.8%
        Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business 5.2%
        Unpaid family workers 0.2%
INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2022 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)
    Households 2,491,121
        Median household income (dollars) 70,996
        With earnings 76.0%
            Mean earnings (dollars) 96,513
        With Social Security income 32.2%
            Mean Social Security income (dollars) 23,279
        With Supplemental Security Income 4.5%
            Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) 11,207
        With cash public assistance income 2.0%
            Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) 3,344
        With retirement income 26.4%
            Mean retirement income (dollars) 27,551
        With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits 11.7%
    Families 1,511,105
        Median family income (dollars) 91,700
            Married-couple family 77.6%
        Median income (dollars) 105,109
            Male householder, no spouse present, family 7.5%
        Median income (dollars) 64,141
            Female householder, no husband present, family 15.0%
        Median income (dollars) 45,236
    Individuals 5,892,539
        Per capita income (dollars) 40,188
        With earnings for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 1,241,897
            Female 936,639
        Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 80,588
            Female 60,832
        Median earnings (dollars) full-time, year-round workers:
            Male 61,280
            Female 49,582
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
    Civilian noninstitutionalized population 5,831,451
        With private health insurance 73.3%
        With public coverage 35.7%
        No health insurance coverage 5.2%
POVERTY RATES FOR FAMILIES AND PEOPLE FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED
    All families 6.8%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 10.9%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 11.1%
        Married-couple family 3.4%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 4.1%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 3.8%
        Female householder, no spouse present, family 23.1%
With related children of the householder under 18 years 30.2%
With related children of the householder under 5 years only 33.0%
    All people 10.7%
Under 18 years 12.7%
Related children of the householder under 18 years 12.4%
Related children of the householder under 5 years 13.8%
Related children of the householder 5 to 17 years 11.9%
18 years and over 10.2%
18 to 64 years 10.3%
65 years and over 9.6%
        People in families 7.3%
Unrelated individuals 15 years and over 21.8%
HOUSING TENURE
    Occupied housing units 2,491,121
        Owner-occupied housing units 68.1%
        Renter-occupied housing units 31.9%
        Average household size of owner-occupied unit 2.47
        Average household size of renter-occupied unit 1.97
UNITS IN STRUCTURE
    Occupied housing units 2,491,121
1-unit, detached or attached 70.8%
2 to 4 units 9.1%
5 or more units 17.5%
        Mobile home, boat, RV, van, etc. 2.6%
YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
    Occupied housing units 2,491,121
Built 2020 or later 1.4%
Built 2010 to 2019 7.8%
Built 2000 to 2009 12.8%
Built 1980 to 1999 21.4%
Built 1960 to 1979 23.2%
Built 1940 to 1959 15.5%
Built 1939 or earlier 18.0%
VEHICLES AVAILABLE
    Occupied housing units 2,491,121
        None 6.5%
1 or more 93.5%
HOUSE HEATING FUEL
    Occupied housing units 2,491,121
        Gas 76.7%
        Electricity 17.7%
        All other fuels 5.0%
        No fuel used 0.6%
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
    Occupied housing units 2,491,121
        No telephone service available 0.8%
1.01 or more occupants per room 1.5%
SELECTED MONTHLY OWNER COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Housing units with a mortgage (excluding units where SMOC cannot be computed) 1,031,942
Less than 30 percent 76.5%
30 percent or more 23.5%
OWNER CHARACTERISTICS
    Owner-occupied housing units 1,696,493
        Median value (dollars) 252,800
        Median selected monthly owner costs with a mortgage (dollars) 1,545
        Median selected monthly owner costs without a mortgage (dollars) 616
GROSS RENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
    Occupied units paying rent (excluding units where GRAPI cannot be computed) 748,787
Less than 30 percent 54.6%
30 percent or more 45.4%
GROSS RENT
    Occupied units paying rent 763,110
        Median gross rent (dollars) 992
COMPUTERS AND INTERNET USE
    Total households 2,491,121
        With a computer 94.9%
        With a broadband Internet subscription 90.6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

©2024 Richard Careaga. All rights reserved. Last modified: August 21, 2024.